BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Listen up folks!
March Madness is only a few weeks away, and that means it’s time to make some futures for who will be cutting down the nets when it’s all said and done. Today, I am going to give you a few of my favorite picks the win the NCAA Championship based on the betting odds and overall talent of each team. (All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 4th).
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+250)
Now before you get upset that one of my picks is the favorite, just hear me out. I truly believe Gonzaga is significantly better than every other team in college basketball this season. Don’t overreact to the weak conference Gonzaga is in. It’s the best team.
Gonzaga is the number one rated offensive team, and for a good reason. With four players averaging 10 or more points per game, the Bulldogs have a very balanced attack that can kill opponents from all over the court. As a team, Gonzaga shoots 55.3% from the field (1st in NCAA), averages 92.9 points per game (1st in NCAA), and averages 18.7 assists per game (2nd in NCAA). The Bulldogs’ offense is unstoppable.
The Gonzaga offense is lead by senior forward Corey Kispert. Corey Kispert averages 19.5ppg, 4.9rpg, 1.8apg. Kispert shoots 55.6% from the field, 88.9% from the line, 46.3% from behind the arc, and is considered by many to be the best pure shooter in college basketball. Besides Kispert, Gonzaga’s other key contributors are Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs, and Joel Ayayi. The three combined average 44.1ppg, 19.4rpg, 9.6apg, and 4spg.
On the defensive side, Gonzaga is just as dominant. Gonzaga is ranked 10th in defensive efficiency, holds its opponents to just 41.9% shooting, and forces 15.7 turnovers a game!
Despite being in a weak conference, the Bulldogs have proven they can beat the elite teams in college basketball. This season, Gonzaga has beaten Kansas by 12, Auburn by 23, WVU by 5, Iowa by 11, and Virginia by 23.
It’s hard to recommend any team at just +250 odds to win the tournament, but you’d be foolish not to throw a little bit on Gonzaga, who is without question the most talented team in the country.
Illinois Fighting Illini (+1700)
I’ll be the first to admit that I wasn’t completely sold on Illinois a week ago. When the All-American guard Ayo Dosunmu suffered a facial injury, I was terrified that the shallow depth of the roster wouldn’t be able to overcome it. Instead, they did the exact opposite.
Illinois has won its last three games that Dosunmu missed, including road wins over Wisconsin and Michigan. The Michigan win was the biggest eye-opener for me as Illinois dominated the No. 2 ranked Wolverines from start to finish. The Fighting Illini defense held Michigan to just 34.7% shooting and out-rebounded them by 16! It was a beat-down by Fighting Illini and they managed to do it without their best player.
Ayo Dosunmu will return sooner rather than later, and when he does, he will give Illinois a massive boost. Dosunmu averages 21ppg, 6.3rpg, 5.3apg, 1.1spg, and is a top 5 player in the entire country. He’s a potential NBA lottery pick and has the ability to take in over any game he wants. When he returns, he’ll join other NBA prospect Kofi Cockburn and will give Illinois one of the deadliest 1-2 punches in all of college basketball. Cockburn averages 17.5ppg, 9.8rpg, and 1.3bpg. His dominance inside the paint is the perfect complement to Dosunmu.
As a team, Illinois doesn’t have a true weakness. The Fighting Illini are balanced both offensively and defensively and rank 8th in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While the bench depth is a bit concerning, the value at +1700 is way too much for me to pass up on.
Iowa Hawkeyes (+1300)
The next team on our list is another Big Ten team, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Unlike the first two teams I mentioned, the Hawkeyes are riskier because they struggle on defense. However, their offense is good enough to make up for that.
Iowa is currently ranked second in offensive efficiency and 58th in defensive efficiency in the country. Iowa’s offense is built around the big man Luka Garza, arguably the country’s best player. Garza averages 24.3ppg, 8.4rpg, 1.8apg, and 1.5bpg. Garza shoots the ball very well at 55.1% from the floor and 45.5% from the 3pt range.
Besides Garza, the Hawkeyes have excellent guard play highlighted by CJ Frederick, Joe Wieskamp, and Jordan Bohannon. Together they average 33.4ppg, 11.1rpg, 8.2apg, and 1.9spg. This trio of guards can all shoot from anywhere on the court, play good on the ball defense, and most importantly, don’t turn the ball over. Iowa is fourth in the country in the fewest turnovers per game (9.5).
Iowa’s elite offense has no weakness, and it will take a lot for them to lose in the tournament. Iowa is the 3rd best team from 3 point range in the NCAA. The Hawkeyes average the 4th most points per game and don’t make many mistakes. The defense might not be as elite as Gonzaga’s or Illinois’ but Iowa’s offense more than makes up for that and can carry them all the way to a championship.
Honorable Mentions
The teams listed here are my favorite higher odd teams that have played very well and have exceptional value. Once the bracket is set I wouldn’t mind sprinkling a little on these teams to reach the final four.
Florida State (+2000)
West Virginia (+2000)
Texas Tech (+2500)
San Diego State (+4000)
Colorado (+5000)
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