Folks!! Welcome to Championship Week. There will be a conference champion crowed every day from now until Selection Sunday. Hopes and dreams will be crushed and very few will have the opportunity to play on the big stage in the Big Dance.
Every team still has something to play for. Obviously, the lower conferences are playing for a once-in-a-lifetime chance to be in the NCAA Tournament but even the major conferences have storylines going into this week.
Cinderella teams are trying to navigate through their first bracket, bubble teams are staying clear of sharp edges, others are playing for a better seed, and the top teams in the nation are fighting for that illustrious No. 1 seed.
Let’s take a look at which teams are in line to be at the top of the bracket, but make sure not to forget about the weekly Top 25 below:
Locks
Gonzaga Bulldogs 24 – 3 (13 – 1 WCC)
Really, no matter what the Bulldogs do in the next couple of days they will be a 1-seed. Gonzaga is on top of nearly every ranking and metric: on top of NET, KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin. The only metric they aren’t on top of is KPI, which ranks Gonzaga 9th.
Gonzaga has only lost to Duke, Alabama, and Saint Mary’s this season. They could have a rematch with Saint Mary’s on Tuesday night for the WCC title if both teams win their semi-final matchup. With wins over Texas, UCLA, and Texas Tech in non-conference, it would be shocking to not see Gonzaga on top of a regional bracket.
There is no question Gonzaga will be a top seed. The only question I have out of this is why are there so many metrics?!
Last No. 1 Seed – 2021 (4th in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: -115
Arizona Wildcats 28 – 3 (18 – 2 Pac-12)
It has been a great week for Arizona. After losing to Colorado in Boulder, the Wildcats traveled to Los Angeles to face Top 20 USC and dominated the whole game. At 28 – 3 on the year, Arizona is on pace to have their best record since going 34 – 4 in 2015.
The Wildcats have studs in the frontcourt and backcourt with Benn Mathurin and Christian Koloko. Mathurin is a sophomore guard leading Arizona in points with 17.3 per game, and likely to be selected in the upcoming NBA Draft. Koloko is an amazing rim protector. At 7’1”, Koloko averages 7 boards and 2.8 blocks/game.
Arizona’s three losses have been true road games to Tennessee, UCLA, and Colorado. Undefeated in Quad 2, 3, and 4, the Wildcats have one of the strongest resumes in the country and should get their 7th 1-seed in school history this year.
With the Pac-12 Tournament starting up in Las Vegas, Arizona is set to square off against the winner of Arizona State and Stanford on Thursday afternoon.
Last No. 1 Seed – 2014 (6th in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: +155
Good Chance
Baylor Bears 26 – 5 (14 – 4 Big 12)
Has there ever been a team that won a National Championship and in the following year it was a surprise they would be right back on top? Baylor definitely has the chance to do so. Even after losing big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua for the season due to a knee injury, and not having second-leading scorer, LJ Cryer, for most of the past six weeks the Bears have found themselves in a position to be a 1-seed for the second straight season.
Baylor has 18 wins in Quad 1 and 2, the most in the nation. In non-conference, Baylor defeated Michigan State, Villanova, and Oregon, but in the buzz-saw Big 12 they swept Iowa State, Texas, and TCU, and split with Kansas.
Coming in at No. 3 in NET, 4 in KenPom, and top 5 in the AP Poll, Baylor has a real shot at another 1-seed. With Kansas hovering right with them, a potential matchup in the Big 12 Championship game could be for that top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Last No. 1 Seed – 2021 (1st in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: +220
Kansas Jayhawks 25 – 6 (14 – 4 Big 12)
Kansas year in and year out finds themselves in this position. At 25 – 6 the Jayhawks have had a great season, but Bill Self has this team aiming for a Big 12 title and a national title.
While Baylor had a good non-conference, Kansas’ wasn’t anything special. They beat Michigan State in the first game of the season but have lost to Kentucky and Dayton. Outside of the Michigan State win, the team with the highest NET ranking they beat was North Texas.
Don’t get me wrong, this team has the ability and resume to be a 1-seed but it seems like Kansas will have to win the Big 12 Tournament to get there.
The Jayhawks will play Thursday afternoon against the winner of Kansas State and West Virginia. Win that game and face off against either Texas or TCU. The Big 12 Tournament will be amazing to watch this year.
Last No. 1 Seed – 2018 (14th in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: +350
Auburn Tigers 27 – 4 (15 – 3 SEC)
About a month ago, Auburn was 22 – 1, unanimous No. 1 in the nation, and rolling through the SEC. The Tigers have lost three games in the past month, all true road games in conference. You can’t knock a team for losing games like that in a tough environment, but it has opened the door for a possible scenario where Auburn isn’t on the one-line.
Auburn’s situation is very similar to Baylor’s. Auburn has Kentucky right on their tail, and a potential SEC Championship game between the Tigers and Wildcats could essentially be a play-in game for a 1-seed.
Bruce Pearl and Auburn will square off at noon on Friday against either Florida or Texas A&M. Florida beat Auburn on February 19 and are looking for a late season serge to gain an at-large bid into the Big Dance.
Last No. 1 Seed – 1999 (1st in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: +280
Kentucky Wildcats 25 – 6 (14 – 4 SEC)
John Calipari might have the most complete team in the nation. The injury bug has hit this team some, but they are still right at the top of the sport.
Kentucky’s six losses this year have come to likely NCAA Tournament teams, all on the road and all Quad 1. The Wildcats have eight Quad 1 victories, the same as Auburn. The eye test tells me this squad is national championship ready.
If UK can win the SEC Tournament they could end up as a 1-seed, but I’m sure John Calipari knows the value of being the first or second overall 2-seed in March.
Last No. 1 Seed – 2015 (12th in school history)
Odds to make Final Four: +160
TVD’s Top 25 – Last Poll Before Selection Sunday
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs 24 – 3 (13 – 1 WCC)
2. Arizona Wildcats 28 – 3 (18 – 2 Pac-12)
3. Baylor Bears 26 – 5 (14 – 4 Big 12)
4. Kentucky Wildcats 25 – 6 (14 – 4 SEC)
5. Auburn Tigers 27 – 4 (15 – 3 SEC)
6. Kansas Jayhawks 25 – 6 (14 – 4 Big 12)
7. Duke Blue Devils 26 – 5 (16 – 4 ACC)
8. Villanova Wildcats 23 – 7 (16 – 4 Big East)
9. Tennessee Volunteers 23 – 7 (14 – 4 SEC)
10. Providence Friars 24 – 4 (14 – 3 Big East)
11. Wisconsin Badgers 24 – 6 (15 – 5 Big Ten)
12. Purdue Boilermakers 25 – 6 (14 – 6 Big Ten)
13. Illinois Fighting Illini 22 – 8 (15 – 5 Big Ten)
14. Arkansas Razorbacks 24 – 7 (13 – 5 SEC)
15. Texas Tech Red Raiders 23 – 8 (12 – 6 Big 12)
16. UCLA Bruins 23 – 6 (15 – 5 Pac-12)
17. Saint Mary’s Gaels 24 – 6 (12 – 3 WCC)
18. USC Trojans 25 – 6 (14 – 6 Pac-12)
19. Iowa Hawkeyes 22 – 9 (12 – 8 Big Ten)
20. UConn Huskies 22 – 8 (13 – 6 Big East)
21. Murray State Racers 30 – 2 (18 – 0 Ohio Valley)
22. Houston Cougars 26 – 5 (15 – 3 American)
23. Colorado State Rams 24 – 4 (14 – 4 Mountain West)
24. Texas Longhorns 21 – 10 (10 – 8 Big 12)
25. South Dakota State Jackrabbits 28 – 4 (18 – 0 Summit)
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