Mid-major basketball is the heart and soul of college hoops. Each year we get a new, compelling
storyline about a smaller school that breaks into the AP Top 25 or soars up different metric
rankings after winning for two straight months in conference play.
Traditionally, some schools have done well as a mid-major over the last decade or so. Yes, Gonzaga is in a mid-major conference, but they have national title aspirations every year, making them one of the premier programs in the country. Instead, the likes of San Diego State, VCU, and Saint Mary’s have had a handful of tournament appearances since 2010.
Since the 2010 tournament, there have been a total of 16 different mid-major schools that have danced into the Sweet 16, five making the Final Four. Max Abmas and Oral Roberts, Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago, even Florida Gulf Coast: They are just a few of the small schools that go into the Big Dance with nothing to lose and become the story of March.
So, which mid-major should we start to keep our eyes on heading into the 2022 NCAA Tournament? With just a few weeks remaining in conference play, now is crunch time to build up that resume and gain some traction heading into conference tournaments. We all fill out our brackets after Selection Sunday and try to predict that one upset, so here is my list of teams to watch for to play spoiler:
Wyoming Cowboys: 20 – 3 (9 – 1)
One of the nation’s last unbeaten teams, Wyoming began the season 8 – 0 before being smacked
by then No. 11 Arizona 94-65 on December 8 in Tucson. The Cowboys have won 11 of their
last 13 games since then with both losses being by three points. The combo of guard Hunter
Maldonado and forward Graham Ike has been spectacular as of late in the Mountain West.
Maldonado put up 31 points against Air Force and 35 in a big overtime win against Colorado State on January 22. Then Ike dominated at home against Boise State, scoring 33 points and grabbing 10 boards. This week, the Cowboys won a thriller against Utah State in overtime with Maldonado and Ike combining for 51 points. Wyoming is hovering around being an 8 or 9-seed right now, if that ends up being where the Pokes land, that 1-seed in the Round of 32 is going to have a run for their money.
Boise State Broncos: 18 – 5 (9 – 1)
After starting the season a rocky 3 – 4 with losses to UC-Irvine and Cal State Bakersfield, Boise State rattled off 14 straight with wins against bubble team Washington State and aforementioned Wyoming. The biggest factor attributing to the Broncos success is their defense. They are ranked seventh in Defensive Efficiency on KenPom and let up only 59.1 points/game, sixth best in the country. Guards Abu Kigab and Marcus Shaver Jr. lead the team in scoring with a combined 26.7 points/game, and big man Mladen Armus grabs 8.3 boards. If matched up against a team that struggles to make baskets, Boise State could get their first NCAA Tournament win in school history this year.
Colorado State Rams: 18 – 3 (8 – 3)
You might be catching on to a trend here. The Mountain West has been one of the best – and underrated – conferences in the country this year. Colorado State didn’t lose until January 8, winning their first 10 games. Junior guard David Roddy seems to do it all leading the team in points, rebounds, and blocks. Last night, Roddy stuffed his stat line in a win at Nevada with 29 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and one block. If the season ended today the Rams would have their ticket punched, but with a game remaining against Wyoming and two against Boise State, they still have some convincing to do.
If this team gets hot in the Mountain West tournament heading into March Madness, look out. Colorado State can put points up in a hurry.
Murray State Racers: 22 – 2 (12 – 0)
This year’s Murray State team is special. Currently ranked 28th in KenPom and 29th in NET, they have reached No. 23 in the AP Poll, the schools highest since being No. 9 in 2012. The Racers have two losses in the first three months of play, stumbling early against a low-level East Tennessee State team, but rallied quickly and won their next seven until they went down to current No. 1 Auburn and lost by 13. This is a terrific offense that averages 81.3 points/game with Tevin Brown and KJ Williams combining for 33.8 to lead the team.
Murray State will likely enter the tournament anywhere from a 7-seed to a 10-seed, leading to a potential matchup against one of the top teams in the third round. Don’t sleep on the Racers.
Toledo Rockets: 19 – 5 (11 – 2)
This week, Toledo finished off a clean sweep of in-state rival Ohio University, who is also right at the top of the MAC. Unfortunately for both of those squads, only one team from the MAC will be making the tournament. Averaging over 80 points/game, the Rockets can score. Sophomore Ryan Rollins leads the team with an average of 20 points per game, but JT Shumate, Setric Millner Jr., and RayJ Dennis all average 12 or more points every game.
A MAC team has won in the Round of 64 in the last three NCAA Tournaments, a potential date with a 4 or 5-seed might be in store for a dangerous Toledo team.
UAB Blazers: 18 – 5 (8 – 2)
Experience is something that can boost your team up in March, and UAB’s top three scorers are upperclassmen. The Blazers are itching to get to the tournament after getting knocked off in C-USA’s semifinals last year, finishing 22-7. Junior Jordan Walker is averaging nearly 20 points/game and shooting 42% from beyond the arc. This team relies heavily on their backcourt.
Averaging 81.3 points/game as a team, UAB stands 10th in the country in scoring. Floating right on the bubble, UAB doesn’t have a signature win on their resume, but they also haven’t played a signature opponent. If the Blazers win their conference tournament, put their opponent in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on upset alert.
North Texas Mean Green: 17 – 4 (10 – 1)
Last year North Texas entered the tournament as a 13-seed and pulled off a huge overtime upset over 4-seeded Purdue. Currently winners of nine straight, North Texas has only lost once since November 26, and that one loss was against UAB. The Mean Green have lost by a total of 24 points this year, and 12 of those came from a 71-59 battle against Kansas in the ESPN Events Invitational. This team does struggle to put up points, ranking 330th nationally with 66.5 points/game, but they are on this list because they always find a way to win. If they get in, expect a classic 5 vs. 12-seed matchup where North Texas pushes their opponent to the limit.
Honorable Mentions:
Vermont Catamounts: 18 – 4 (10 – 0)
John Becker always has this team in position to win the America East. Ranked 36th by KenPom in Offensive Efficiency, this team knows how to put the ball in the basket.
Iona Gaels: 19 – 4 (11 – 1)
What Rick Pitino has done here has been amazing, but why would we be surprised? Averaging 76.9 points/game, the Gaels have defeated Alabama and lost by 13 to Kansas. They’ve tested themselves against tournament teams. Should the Gaels take care of business in the MAAC, it has Sweet 16 written all over it.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits: 21 – 4 (12 – 0)
Third in the nation in scoring at 87 points/game, no one is going to want this first round matchup. The Jackrabbits haven’t lost since December 15, currently on a 12-game winning streak. This team is the hottest thing to come out of Brookings, South Dakota since… I got nothin’.
Selection Sunday is approaching fast. Some of these teams might not even make it past the first round of their conference tournament, but that is what March is all about.
The slipper only fits if everything aligns perfectly. The Cinderella story in March 2022 could very well be one of these teams.