I’m a pessimist. And I’ll admit that. I was one of the people who was worried if we’d be at this point; the afternoon of September 10th, 2020, gearing up for a live football game. But here we are, and this means one thing. Time for me to lose more money in DFS!!! I warned you, I’m a pessimist. But while I’m pessimistic, self-deprecating, and a habitual over thinker, I’m not the worst fantasy player.
So take my advice, or don’t. That’s totally your call. But every week I’m gonna lay down the facts and stats, and do my best to help y’all fatten up those wallets throughout this NFL season. So let’s get into the nitty gritty. Here’s your first DFS guide for 2020.
Disclaimer: This DFS Guide is based on FanDuel. The matchup analysis will be evergreen, but don’t expect to go into DraftKings and see these salaries.
The rules for one game slates are as follows. Pick 5 players and stay under the $60,000 salary cap. Out of your five players, choose one to be your MVP. His point total will be multiplied by 1.5, so pick whoever you think will score the most fantasy points (obviously).
My Top Plays:
Patrick Mahomes ($16,500) – MVP
The Houston defense is not very good. The last time these teams played was in the Divisional Round back in January, when Mahomes led a monumental comeback en route to a 51-31 win. This doesn’t need much explaining. Mahomes will likely be the QB1 of Week 1 and you can probably count him in for 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns. His floor is above most player’s ceilings. Put him in your MVP spot and figure out the rest.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($12,000)
I’m having flashbacks to Kareem Hunt’s coming out party in 2017 on opening night. Edwards-Helaire is the crown jewel of rookie fantasy options and he’s absolutely going to make his mark in Week 1. This might be the cheapest you get him on a one game slate all season. He comes out at $12,000 which is the average cost per player if you use your whole salary. Darrell Williams is the backup RB in a matchup against a team that allowed 4.61 yards per carry to running backs last year. So he has no competition for touches in an outstanding matchup, that will likely see the Chiefs ahead early. Lock him in.
Will Fuller V ($10,500)
Will Fuller might be the best value on the slate. He’s without a doubt the Texans top receiver coming into this season, and he’s also one of two WRs with any sort of in-game rapport with Watson. Even with D-Hop in the lineup, he saw at least 6 targets in 11 games last year. With Hopkins’ 150 targets needing redistribution, I expect Fuller to see 9-12 targets in this game. While it’s not a great matchup, volume is king, and Fuller is talented enough to break off a big play every single week.
Travis Kelce ($13,500)
Kelce isn’t a lock for me, but he’s damn close. He’s the best TE in football going up against a team that allowed the 11th most points per game to the tight end position. With Tyreek Hill working with a hamstring injury, and a rookie running back making his first start, I expect Mahomes to lean on Kelce very heavily.
With the salary cap at $60,000, if you start those four guys, this leaves you with just $7,500 left to fill out your lineup, which isn’t ideal. But I really believe that these will be the highest 4 scoring players in this game. You could argue Tyreek Hill ($13,000) as a lock for DFS (if he were healthy), but I have a hard time putting both Hill and Kelce in the same lineup just due to the salary constraints. I think Kelce’s ceiling is higher for this Week 1 matchup, but Hill would give you an extra $500 to work with, and on this slate, that actually means a lot.
Fades:
Deshaun Watson ($15,000)
This isn’t to say that Watson won’t put up numbers tonight. He had a really solid game the last time these teams played, totally yard, touchdowns, and rushing yards. My worry here is two-fold: 1.) The Chiefs defense is better than people give them credit for. They only allowed 3,543 passing yards (8th in the NFL), 21 TDs (T-8th) and had 16 interceptions (T-5th). Watson could very well put up fantasy points in a negative gamescript, but that’s not a lock by any means.
My second concern is with the Texans themselves. I’m really worried about what this offense will look like without Deandre Hopkins. Cooks and Fuller are solid receivers, Johnson & Johnson are a solid backfield if David can stay healthy, but I don’t expect this offense to gel right out of the gate against a Top 10 NFL defense. Watson did have a 96.7 passer rating when targeting Fuller, but that’s with Hopkins drawing attention away from Fuller. If this offense wants to have any sort of success, they’ll have to do it primarily with their running back duo. Watson could have a good game on the ground, but his $15,000 salary won’t provide you with any sort of value this week.
Tyreek Hill ($13,000)
It’s hard to tell people to fade Tyreek Hill. If you drafted him in a season-long league, you’re starting him. You already invested the capital. But in DFS, you don’t have to. He’s the boom-or-bust player in this matchup. He very well may take the top off the defense for a score or two, but against this defense, I don’t expect Andy Reid to put out an injured star player more than they need him. And the Chiefs are deep at receiver, so they can definitely blow out the Texans without Tyreek on the field. I’m worried about his usage in Week 1, so I’m personally fading him, although I do get the appeal to start him.
Brandin Cooks ($10,000)
This falls in line with what I said about fading Deshaun Watson. I don’t expect this passing attack to gel in Week 1 against a Top 10 pass defense. Cooks is a good receiver, but he’s not Deandre Hopkins. The negative game script will probably benefit Cooks and get him a couple extra targets, but I don’t feel comfortable trusting him in Week 1. Should he stay healthy, I think he’ll live up to his draft value by season’s end, but I can’t trust him since we didn’t have a full preseason this year.
Dart Throws:
Kenny Stills ($7,500)
Remember when I said that Fuller is the one of two receivers who worked with Watson before? Stills is the other one. Against the Chiefs in the playoffs, he made the most of his 6 targets, taking 3 of them in for 80 yards and a score. He’s who I’m filling out my lineup with along with Mahomes, Kelce, CEH and Fuller. I know Randall Cobb is *technically* the WR3 on the Houston depth chart, but I can’t imagine a world where he outscores Stills. But it’s 2020 so who knows?
Mecole Hardman ($7,500)
I won’t often tell you to start Hardman, but with the soft tissue injuries that Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill are suffering, Mecole could me more involved in the offense this week than at any point this season. He’s also going to be the punt/kick returner and if he takes one of those to the house, he’ll probably hit value. He’s explosive and is walking into a possibly large target share. If Hill and Watkins both are limited, Hardman will likely lead receivers in targets for the Chiefs. I’d take Stills over him personally, but if you’ve sworn off Kenny Stills for burning you in the past, Hardman is a good, cheap option.
My Lineup:
Patrick Mahomes ($16,500) – MVP
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($12,000)
Will Fuller V ($10,500)
Travis Kelce ($13,500)
Kenny Stills ($7,500)
Salary Total: $60,000
Written by Wake Jatkins (@wakejatkins)