Bubble watching in March – A tradition unlike any other.
Conference tournaments have started, the regular season for most is coming to a close. Folks, WELCOME TO MARCH!! Every team is fighting for one of the 68 spots in the NCAA Tournament. Everything is on the line now.
There are a lot of great months for sports. March takes the cake, and it isn’t close.
Let’s see which way the bubble is floating this week. Some teams hopped off the bubble and are getting ready to dance, others hopped off and are practicing their golf swings.
Expect some major changes to this list before Selection Sunday!!
For reference, here is how the NCAA breaks down all 358 teams into four quadrants:
Quad 1: Home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. top 50 teams, road games against top 75 teams.
Quad 2: Home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral games vs. 51-100, road games vs. 76 -135.
Quad 3: Home games against teams ranked 76-160, neutral games vs. 101-200, road games vs. 136-240.
Quad 4: Home games against teams ranked 161-358, neutral games vs. 201-358, road games vs. 241-358.
Next Four Byes
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 17 – 12 (11 – 8 Big Ten)
After losing three in a row, Rutgers picked up a HUGE victory on Wednesday night over Indiana as Ron Harper Jr. nailed the game-winning 3-pointer with two seconds left on the clock. The win gave Rutgers their sixth Quad 1 win on the season.
The Scarlet Knights now have more Quad 1 wins than Duke, UConn, Illinois, Texas, and many more Tournament teams. Steve Pikiell and Rutgers should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
Next two games: vs. Penn State (Q3), Big Ten Tournament
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 23 – 8 (13 – 7 ACC)
Wake Forest is having a major turnaround season in Steve Forbes’ second year as head coach. Wake seems to find themselves in a good spot with no bad losses despite being 1 – 4 in Quad 1.
Ranking 30th in Offensive Efficiency and 55th in Defensive Efficiency, this team has the metrics and ability to score to be in the Tournament. They are averaging 100 points in their last two games: a 99-77 win over Louisville, and a 101-76 win over NC State.
The Demon Deacons are back on the list due to TCU beating Texas Tech and Kansas in a four-day span.
Next two games: ACC Tournament
Creighton Bluejays 20 – 9 (12 – 6 Big East)
The Bluejays survived a bit of a scare on Wednesday night as St. John’s rallied late, but Creighton ended up winning by three. Unfortunately, freshman guard Ryan Nembhard suffered a broken wrist and will be out for the remainder of the season. Hembhard led the Bluejays in assists and was also on the court more than anyone else, averaging 34.8 minutes/game.
Creighton is still a good team without Nembhard and should make some noise in the Big East Tournament. In their first game without the freshman, Providence stomped on the Bluejays 72-51, but Creighton rebounded with a big Quad 1 home win over UConn on Wednesday night.
Next two games: vs. Seton Hall (Q2), Big East Tournament
Michigan Wolverines 16 – 12 (10 – 8 Big Ten)
On Tuesday night, sophomore big man Hunter Dickinson had a career-high 33 points in a win over Michigan State. The win was their second of the week over a potential NCAA Tournament team – UM defeated Rutgers 71-62 last Wednesday.
Michigan has seemingly been on the bubble ever since their home loss to Minnesota on December 11. That loss is still their one and only Quad 3 defeat. Since then, Big Blue has wins over Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers, and Michigan State.
The Wolverines next two opponents are Iowa and Ohio State, both of which are ahead of Michigan in the Big Ten standings. If Michigan can win both, they may find themselves in the top four of the Big Ten, giving them a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Next two games: vs. Iowa (Q1), at Ohio State (Q1)
Last Four In
Indiana Hoosiers 18 – 11 (9 – 10 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers are really playing themselves out of the Tournament in the past month. At the end of January, this team was 16 – 5 and way ahead of the bubble. Since February, Indiana is 2 – 6 with their only wins coming against Maryland and Minnesota.
Wednesday nights loss at home to Rutgers wasn’t a dagger to their season, but it definitely has to hurt in the Hoosiers locker room.
If Indiana can beat Purdue on the road Saturday, they should see themselves sneak into the Tournament.
Next two games: at Purdue (Q1), Big Ten Tournament
San Diego State Aztecs 19 – 7 (11 – 4 Mountain West)
One thing I believe in when it comes to determining who will make the tournament is head-to-head. Now, if one teams’ resume is noticeably better than the other, then head-to-head wouldn’t matter all that much. San Diego State and Michigan have similar resumes. The Aztecs are 4 – 7 in Quad 1, Michigan is 4 – 8. San Diego State’s record vs. Michigan this season: 0 – 1.
The Aztecs have a stout defense ranking No. 1 on KenPom in Defensive Efficiency. They like to slow the game down and keep you away from the hoop.
San Diego State picked up their fourth Quad 1 victory on Monday night as they beat Wyoming on the road. It was the first time Wyoming lost on their home court all season.
Next two games: vs. Fresno State (Q2), at Nevada (Q2)
San Francisco Dons 23 – 8 (10 – 6 WCC)
The Dons are trying to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. Todd Golden’s squad has lost three of their last seven, but two of those losses are to Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
The WCC Tournament will decide if the Dons will be dancing or not. They received a double-bye and will have a massive bubble matchup with BYU, unless BYU gets knocked off in their first game. If San Fran wins, they will have a meeting with top-seeded Gonzaga in the WCC semi-finals.
San Francisco controls their own destiny.
Next two games: WCC Tournament
North Carolina Tar Heels 22 – 8 (14 – 5 ACC)
The Tar Heels have won four straight since an embarrassing home loss to Pitt. They have also picked up their first Quad 1 win of the season by defeating Virginia Tech on the road.
UNC is 21 – 1 outside of Quad 1 with the lone loss to Pitt. Seems legit, until you realize they are 1 – 7 in Quad 1. Their record says they are a Tournament team, they rank 39th in NET and 38th in KenPom, but they have not won much against top competition.
Next two games: at Duke (Q1), ACC Tournament
First Four Out
SMU Mustangs 20 – 7 (11 – 4 American)
Now we are on the wrong side of the bubble. It seems to me that there is a clear separating factor between the teams I have in, and the teams I have out: this side of the bubble never seems to help themselves.
Last Wednesday, SMU lost 64-57 on the road to Temple. They had an opportunity to jump on the good side of the bubble on Sunday but lost by 14 at Houston.
The Mustangs end the regular season with two Quad 3 games. Winning those will not move SMU up but losing one will be devastating.
Next two games: vs. Cincinnati (Q3), vs. Tulane (Q3)
Memphis Tigers 17 – 9 (11 – 5 American)
Memphis has won eight of their last nine games, but their two most recent losses are to SMU. Head-to-head matters!!
The Tigers will have a major opportunity to jump SMU with a win over Houston this upcoming Sunday. A win will give Memphis a regular season sweep of Houston and would double SMU’s Quad 1 wins with four.
Memphis will likely play either SMU or Houston (or both) in the AAC Tournament next week.
Next two games: at South Florida (Q3), vs. Houston (Q1)
BYU Cougars 21 – 9 (9 – 6 WCC)
The Cougars keep hanging around, but only by a thread. Since January 20 BYU has only defeated San Diego, Portland, Loyola Marymount, and Pepperdine. In that span they have a Quad 4 loss to Pacific.
BYU will play either Loyola Marymount or Pacific in their first WCC Tournament matchup. Win that game and the Cougars will have an opportunity to boost their resume in a battle with San Francisco.
Next two games: WCC Tournament
Oregon Ducks 18 – 11 (11 – 7 Pac-12)
A recurring theme, BYU beat Oregon head-to-head. Although that was the Ducks third game of the season – the score was 81-49!
Back on November 12, Oregon did beat SMU in Eugene. Comparing resumes was difficult. SMU is 2 – 2 in Quad 1 and 4 – 3 in Quad 2, Oregon is 3 – 6 in Q1, 4 – 2 in Q2. The deciding factor for me was that the Ducks are 3 – 3 in Quad 3 and have lost five of their last seven.
As we all know, the college basketball bubble is ever-changing. SMU, Memphis, and BYU could all drop another game or two and Oregon could make a statement in the Pac-12 Tournament. It would not surprise me one bit to be watching this team in the First Four in Dayton.
Next two games: at Washington (Q2), at Washington State (Q1)
Next *Five* Out
Florida Gators 19 – 11 (9 – 8 SEC)
There seemed to be a good chance Florida could make a run at an at-large bid after their victory over Auburn. The Gators then had an opportunity to make that a reality with a home bout against Arkansas but stumbled 82-74. Since then, Florida has won two straight versus Georgia and Vanderbilt, both games they should win.
The Gators will host Kentucky this Saturday, the last regular season game before the SEC Tournament. A win over the Wildcats would surely put Florida right on the cusp of getting into the Big Dance. A loss would mean Florida would have to win at least two games in the conference tournament to be under consideration.
Next two games: vs. Kentucky (Q1), SEC Tournament
Loyola Chicago Ramblers 22 – 7 (13 – 5 Missouri Valley)
Sorry, Sister Jean. The Ramblers have been in control of the MVC up until they lost their regular season finale at Northern Iowa, dropping down to be the 4-seed in the conference tournament.
Loyola Chi doesn’t have a win against a signature opponent this season. They have five Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories: San Francisco, Missouri State, DePaul, Vanderbilt, and Southern Illinois. Not enough of a resume to make the Tournament as an at-large bid.
Next two games: MVC Tournament
VCU Rams 21 – 7 (14 – 3 A-10)
VCU is getting hot at the right time. Winners of eight straight and 11 of their past 12, the Rams are making a case to be in the Field of 68. VCU is missing that signature win but early in the season lost to Baylor by 8 points and took UConn to overtime.
A run deep into the A-10 Tournament could get this team to be knocking on the door into the Tournament, but their only Quad 1 opportunity would be against Davidson.
Next two games: at Saint Louis (Q1), A-10 Tournament
Kansas State Wildcats 14 – 15 (6 – 11 Big 12)
Back on Valentines Day, Kansas State was 14 – 11 and 6 – 7 in Big 12 play. They had just beat West Virginia at home and had a major victory at Iowa State. The Wildcats had a window of opportunity to make a statement… but instead Bruce Weber’s team has lost four straight and seemingly killed their chance at an at-large bid.
A Big 12 Tournament title would be the only way K-State can dance this year.
Next two games: vs. Oklahoma (Q2), Big 12 Tournament
Belmont Bruins 25 – 6 (15 – 3 Ohio Valley)
In the shadow of Murray State in the OVC, Belmont is yet again having a wonderful season. They will need to win the OVC Tournament to get in the NCAA, but I want everyone to realize how amazing this program has been.
Belmont has won 20+ games in now 12 straight seasons, and 16 of the past 17 years. In this run the have made eight NCAA Tournaments, and in 2019 beat 11-seeded Temple in the First Four and almost pulled off an upset over 6-seeded Maryland in the Round of 64. In 2008, they lost by one point to 2-seeded Duke.
Year in and year out, the Bruins are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.
Next two games: OVC Tournament
List Changes from Last Week
Off the List
TCU Horned Frogs 19 – 9 (8 – 8 Big 12)
Moved from Next Four Byes to In the Tournament
Dayton Flyers 21 – 9 (13 – 4 A-10)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to Not Listed
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 19 – 8 (11 – 5 A-10)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to Not Listed
Oklahoma Sooners 16 – 14 (6 – 11 Big 12)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to Not Listed
New to the List
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 22 – 8 (12 – 7 ACC)
Moved from In the Tournament to Next Four Byes
Loyola Chicago Ramblers 22 – 7 (13 – 5 Missouri Valley)
Moved from In the Tournament as Auto-Bid to Next *Five* Out
VCU Rams 21 – 7 (14 – 3 A-10)
Moved from Not Listed to Next *Five* Out
Belmont Bruins 25 – 6 (15 – 3 Ohio Valley)
Moved from Not Listed to Next *Five* Out
THIS IS MARCH!!