Man, March can’t come soon enough.
As we head into the last two weeks of the regular season, lets take a look at who is safe right now, on the bubble, and who needs some help to get into the Big Dance.
For reference, here is how the NCAA breaks down all 358 teams into four quadrants:
Quad 1: Home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. top 50 teams, road games against top 75 teams.
Quad 2: Home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral games vs. 51-100, road games vs. 76 -135.
Quad 3: Home games against teams ranked 76-160, neutral games vs. 101-200, road games vs. 136-240.
Quad 4: Home games against teams ranked 161-358, neutral games vs. 201-358, road games vs. 241-358.
Next Four Byes
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 16 – 10 (10 – 6)
It has been a great run for Rutgers over the last two weeks. The Scarlet Knights rattled off four straight Quad 1 wins against Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. They had a chance to make it five straight at Purdue but stumbled 84-72.
Steve Pikiell has done a great job overcoming a Quad 4 loss to Lafayette and Quad 3 losses to UMass and Maryland, but this team isn’t 100% a lock yet. If they fall at home against Penn State and have an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament this team might have to sweat out Selection Sunday.
Next two games: at Michigan (Q1), vs. Wisconsin (Q1)
Creighton Bluejays 18 – 8 (10 – 5)
Creighton has won five straight games at the right time. Two weeks ago this team lost by 19 to Seton Hall and had their at-large chances up in the air. A one-point win on Sunday over Marquette was the deciding factor in having the Bluejays in my Next Four Byes.
Creighton will have opportunities coming up to cement themselves in the bracket.
Next two games: at St. John’s (Q1), at Providence (Q1)
Indiana Hoosiers 16 – 10 (7 – 9)
The Hoosiers have found themselves on the bubble after losing five straight games, including four straight losses to Quad 1 teams.
Before their matchup against Northwestern, first-year head coach Mike Woodson suspended five players for breaking curfew, leaving Indiana with only six rotation players and a walk-on. Star forward Trayce Jackson-Davis finished with only 13 points without his normal supporting cast as Indiana dropped a winnable game 59-51 and Indiana hasn’t seemed to click since.
Next two games: vs. Maryland (Q3), at Minnesota (Q2)
TCU Horned Frogs 17 – 8 (6 – 7)
Being in the top half of the Big 12 has to be worth something right? No, not really, but TCU has put together a resume worthy of being in the tournament as of right now. Their two worst losses are to Santa Clara and West Virginia, who rank 72nd and 75th in NET.
The Horned Frogs have five regular season games remaining before the Big 12 Tournament – all Quad 1 matchups.
Next two games: at Texas (Q1), vs. Texas Tech (Q1)
Last Four In
San Francisco Dons 22 – 7 (9 – 5)
The Dons had a chance to add to their resume with a win at Saint Mary’s but lost 69-64. Ranking 27th in NET and 24th in KenPom, this team should be in the tournament if the selection committee values metrics, but a Quad 3 loss to Grand Canyon and Quad 4 home loss to Portland is weighing this team down.
San Francisco will host Gonzaga on Thursday night. A win against the nations No. 1 team will surely punch the Dons ticket to the Big Dance.
Next two games: vs. Gonzaga (Q1), at San Diego (Q3)
San Diego State Aztecs 17 – 7 (9 – 4)
San Diego State was about one second away from a huge Quad 1 victory at Boise State on Tuesday night, but a tripping call gave the Broncos two free throws and the win. The Aztecs only have two Quad 1 victories but are undefeated in the other three quadrants.
Next two games: vs. San Jose State (Q4), at Wyoming (Q1)
Michigan Wolverines 14 – 11 (8 – 7)
The NET rankings and KenPom show that Michigan is a tournament team, but they are a combined 6 – 10 in the top two quadrants. The Wolverines have wins over Purdue, Iowa, and aforementioned Indiana and San Diego State, but do have a Quad 3 loss to Minnesota weighing them down.
Michigan will be without head coach Juwan Howard for the rest of the regular season and will be missing Moussa Diabate and Terrance Williams in their next game after a postgame scrum with Wisconsin. Not the best timing for a team very much on the bubble.
Next two games: vs. Rutgers (Q3), vs. Illinois (Q1)
North Carolina Tar Heels 20 – 8 (12 – 5)
North Carolina was winless in Quad 1 and undefeated in all other quadrants coming into this past week. Both changed as the Tar Heels lost to Pitt and beat Virginia Tech. A Quad 4 loss and Quad 1 win honestly makes sense for this weird resume.
Last week, I had UNC first on my Next Four Byes. You simply cannot suffer a Quad 4 loss in February when you are on the bubble, and North Carolina did just that.
Next two games: at NC State (Q2), vs. Syracuse (Q3)
First Four Out
SMU Mustangs 19 – 6 (10 – 3)
SMU is tough to figure out. They have won their last two Quad 1 matchups against Houston and Memphis but lost to Temple in between. The Mustangs are 2 – 1 in Quad 1, 3 – 3 in Quad 2, and have lost one game in Quad 3 and 4.
SMU has one Q1 opportunity left in the regular season and could potentially add one or two more in the AAC Tournament, but as of right now this team still has some work to do.
Next two games: vs. Tulsa (Q4), at Houston (Q1)
Memphis Tigers 15 – 9 (9 – 5)
Looking at resumes alone would tell you that Memphis and SMU are a coin-flip. Memphis has wins over Alabama, Houston, and Virginia Tech to give them an advantage in Quad 1 compared to SMU. The Tigers, however, were swept by SMU this season, and lost by 16 to the Mustangs on Sunday.
Memphis definitely has the talent to get into the tournament, but they are eventually going to have to win another big game in 2022 to make it there.
Next two games: vs. Temple (Q3), vs. Wichita State (Q3)
Florida Gators 17 – 11 (7 – 8)
The Gators were 1 – 7 in Quad 1 entering this past weekend. Florida faithful knew a win versus No. 2 Auburn could lift this team right back in the mix of things, and Tyree Appleby and Co. did just that. Florida beat Auburn 63-62 and notched their first signature win on the year.
Arkansas traveled to Gainesville for another home Quad 1 opportunity for the Gators, but Florida couldn’t hold on to a lead in the 2nd Half lead and lost 82-74.
Head coach Mike White needs to make a statement in the SEC Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid.
Next two games: at Georgia (Q3), at Vanderbilt (Q2)
BYU Cougars 19 – 9 (7 – 6)
Somehow, some way, BYU is still alive on the bubble. The Cougars have lost four straight against Quad 1 opponents, leaving them 3 – 5 in the top quadrant. A Quad 4 loss in late January to Pacific is holding this team down and BYU might not have the opportunities left to lift them into the Tournament.
Head coach Mark Pope has said BYU is actively searching for a non-conference opponent to play before the WCC Tournament, hoping a victory will boost their resume.
Next two games: vs. Loyola Marymount (Q4), vs. Pepperdine (Q4)
Next *Five* Out
Dayton Flyers 19 – 8 (11 – 3)
The Flyers started the season 1 – 3 with all three losses coming to Quad 4 UMass Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay. A horrendous start was reconciled when Dayton beat Miami and Kansas (!!!) in Orlando at the ESPN Events Invitational.
Since the 1 – 3 start Dayton has gone 7 – 5 in the top two quadrants. Unless there is a serious shakeup on the bubble, Dayton looks to be heading to the NIT.
Next two games: vs. UMass (Q4), at LaSalle (Q4)
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 18 – 7 (10 – 4)
The Bonnies couldn’t seem to get out of their own way in the middle of the season. They were nationally ranked in the preseason poll and started off the season beating Boise State, Clemson, and Marquette to win the Charleston Classic. After falling to Northern Iowa at home (I blame myself, I was there) the Bonnies lost 7 of their next 14 games.
St. Bonaventure is currently on a six-game winning streak and are back on the bubble. If this team reaches their potential again, the Bonnies could win the A-10 Tournament and surpass the bubble.
Next two games: at St. Joe’s (Q3), at VCU (Q1)
Kansas State Wildcats 14 – 13 (6 – 9)
Kansas State has now lost two straight road games after being lit up by No. 5 Kansas 102-83. A long shot to make the tournament at any point in the season, the Wildcats lost their first five Quad 1 opportunities and are 4 – 10 overall in the top quadrant. The Big 12 is so deep that it seems every game is a Quad 1 matchup, but you need to start winning them to be in consideration for the NCAA Tournament.
Next two games: vs. Iowa State (Q2), at Texas Tech (Q1)
Oregon Ducks 17 – 10 (10 – 6)
The Ducks have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. They have wins over UCLA, USC, and SMU but are a combined 6 – 7 in Quad 1 and 2. At 3 – 3 in Quad 3, this squad doesn’t have the resume right now… but take a look at their next two games!
Next two games: vs. UCLA (Q1), vs. USC (Q1)
Oklahoma Sooners 14 – 14 (4 – 11)
As a big stat guy, I love metrics. Using more than just wins and losses is really how we should grade teams, especially when splitting hairs on who should be in the tournament or not. Sometimes there is an anomaly in some metrics, and that is Oklahoma. A .500 basketball team in late February should not be ranked 44th in KenPom and 50th in NET, especially when that team has proved time and time again they can’t win big games. Oklahoma is 3 – 11 in Quad 1 and have lost 12 of their last 14 games.
I respect Porter Moser and want to see him succeed at Oklahoma, but this is not an NCAA Tournament team.
Next two games: vs. Oklahoma State (Q2), vs. West Virginia (Q2)