Folks I can’t believe we are this close to Selection Sunday. We are only THREE days away!!
As the major conference tournaments tip-off we will see a lot more action and movement on the bubble. I waited an extra day to release my weekly bubble update because I had a feeling yesterday was going to be amazing and throw some gas into the wildfire that the 2022 bubble is. And it is a good thing I did.
Wake Forest started off the day watching their season slip through their fingers as Boston College shocked the Demon Deacons in the ACC Tournament. A few hours later, we saw Xavier lose in terrible fashion as they fouled at halfcourt UP TWO in the winding seconds, allowing Butler to take the game into overtime and we all know what happened after that. We had another magical March moment as Virginia Tech resuscitated their Tournament hopes as Darius Maddox drained a trey from just beyond the arc as time expired.
This is what March is all about.
Let’s take a look at the current bubble situation, but be warned, this is has the possibility to change drastically up until Sunday afternoon.
Next Four Byes
Wyoming Cowboys 24 – 7 (13 – 5 Mountain West)
About a month ago, Wyoming seemed to be the darling of mid-major college basketball. They were 21 – 3 and reached No. 22 in the AP Poll and I even had them up at No. 16 in my personal rankings. Since February 15, the Cowboys are 3 – 4 including a Quad 3 loss at New Mexico.
I believe Wyoming is safe as of right now. They are 10 – 5 combined in Quad 1 and 2, 47th in NET, and have wins over Mountain West leaders Boise State and Colorado State. A reason to leave them out would be their non-conference slate. Wyoming scheduled three Pac-12 teams – Arizona, Stanford, and Washington – but only won against Washington. Their best NET win out of conference is Grand Canyon (88) and Northern Iowa (100).
Wyoming should be dancing on Selection Sunday, but a loss to UNLV in the Mountain West Quarterfinals could make some rethink.
Next game: Mountain West Tournament – vs. UNLV (Q2)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 18 – 12 (12 – 8 Big Ten)
Rutgers has an unprecedented resume for being where they are right now. The Scarlet Knights are 73rd in KenPom, 78th in NET, have a Quad 4 loss, but have also defeated six surefire Tournament teams. For reference, West Virginia, St. John’s, Utah State, Texas A&M, Missouri State, and Kansas State are a few of many non-Tournament teams that are ahead of Rutgers in KenPom and NET.
Ron Harper Jr. nailed a 3-pointer to beat Indiana on the road last Wednesday. A loss in that game could have shifted the tide for Rutgers as it would have been their fourth straight loss, and against a very prevalent bubble team in Indiana.
If Rutgers loses to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament, I still think they get in no matter what happens. But, if Northwestern shocks Iowa and the continues to upset Rutgers, we could see a different ending.
Next game: Big Ten Tournament – vs. Iowa (Q1) or Northwestern (Q2)
Michigan Wolverines 17 – 13 (11 – 9 Big Ten)
Michigan will have a big bubble test Wednesday afternoon against Indiana. If Michigan loses, I don’t think it will eliminate them from the Big Dance, but there definitely will be some thought.
It is tough to grade a Quad 1 loss, especially when you, yourself, are a Quad 1 team. The Wolverines’ last SEVEN losses are in Quad 1. In that span, they also have four Quad 1 victories. This team seems destined to hear their name on Selection Sunday, but they still could have some work to do.
Next game: Big Ten Tournament – vs. Indiana (Q1)
San Francisco Dons 24 – 9 (10 – 6 WCC)
The Dons win over BYU last Saturday likely secured their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1998. At 21st in KenPom and 25th in NET, San Francisco has some of the best metrics from a mid-major.
Besides a horrendous loss to Portland on February 8, San Fran’s last five losses have come to Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
The only way the Dons aren’t dancing is if there is absolute mayhem on the bubble, and maybe a couple of bid-thieves.
Next game: Waiting for Selection Sunday
First Four In
Memphis Tigers 19 – 9 (13 – 5 American)
The Tigers have won 10 of their last 11 games and closed out the regular season with a massive stomping over highly ranked Houston, 75-61. The win over Houston catapulted Memphis into a good spot on the bubble, especially when it seems most bubble teams keep losing big games.
I will say, a loss to either South Florida or Central Florida would be a damper on the resume in an important time. But, with a win Memphis could potentially square off against SMU, who they have lost to twice already this season.
Next game: American Conference Tournament – vs. South Florida (Q4) or Central Florida (Q2)
Creighton Bluejays 20 – 10 (12 – 7 Big East)
A home loss to Seton Hall to end the regular season was the last thing Creighton wanted. Winners in 8 of 11, the Bluejays have swept Marquette and UConn, and have a win over Villanova.
Metrics are against Creighton this season as they rank 70th in KenPom and 66th in NET, both would have them out of the field. As of right now, I think Creighton has enough to get in. They are .500 combined in Quad 1 and 2, and are 11 – 1 in the bottom two quadrants.
The Bluejays will face Marquette for a third time this season in the Big East Tournament. If they lose, Creighton will keep a close eye on the American and Big Ten Tournaments as they might need Indiana, SMU and/or Memphis to lose.
Next game: Big East Tournament – vs. Marquette (Q1)
Xavier Musketeers 18 – 13 (8 – 11 Big East)
This team has fell flat on its face over the past month and a half. A win over Georgetown stopped a five-game skid, but Xavier dropped their opening game in the Big East Tournament to Butler, putting their season in jeopardy.
Xavier is this close to being out based on their downward trend, but if you look at the overall resume it is not much different from Michigan, who I have in safely right now. The NET and KenPom numbers favor Michigan, but if you look at wins both are 5 – 9 in Quad 1 and Xavier has a better Quad 2 record at 4 – 2. The Musketeers do have two Quad 3 losses to DePaul and Butler in the Big East Tournament.
If today was Selection Sunday, I would have Xavier in. But clearly, it is only Thursday and this bubble is going to be a mess over the next couple days.
Next game: Waiting for Selection Sunday
Indiana Hoosiers 18 – 12 (9 – 11 Big Ten)
Another team that hasn’t helped themselves one bit. Indiana has lost seven of nine and their last four wins since late January have come against Penn State, Minnesota, and Maryland twice. Not the best.
The Hoosiers have a MUST WIN game on Thursday afternoon against Michigan. It is pretty simple… win and stay alive, lose and wait for the NIT.
Next game – Big Ten Tournament – vs. Michigan (Q1)
First Four Out
SMU Mustangs 22 – 7 (13 – 4 American)
Even though I have SMU as the first team out, I think they are in a good spot to move up. They should beat either Tulsa or Wichita State, which would likely lead to playing Memphis in the American Semifinals.
If SMU gets their third win of the season against Memphis it would be hard to leave them out. But I think we all know SMU is one of Michigan’s biggest fans against Indiana.
Beware of the bid-theives…
Next game: American Conference Tournament – vs. Tulsa (Q3) or Wichita State (Q2)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 23 – 9 (13 – 7 ACC)
There is only one way to describe Wake’s resume: Weak!
The Demon Deacons only have one single Quad 1 win, and it came all the way back in December 4 at Virginia Tech. Their Quad 3 loss to Boston College might have been the nail in the coffin.
With three days left until Selection Sunday, Wake would need SMU to lose to either UCF or USF, Indiana to get slaughtered by Michigan, VCU to take a bad loss, and have Virginia Tech lose to Notre Dame. Oh, and have the Selection Committee convinced their resume is better than Xavier’s. Ouch.
Next game: Waiting for Selection Sunday
VCU Rams 21 – 8 (14 – 4 A-10)
VCU is 3 – 3 in Quad 1, and 3 – 4 in Quad 2. Yep, sounds like the perfect bubble team.
For the Rams to get an at-large bid it seems like they will need to make the A-10 championship game. Obviously, if they win the A-10 they will receive an automatic bid and bypass all bubble teams right into the field of 68.
VCU’s metrics have them right outside of the Tournament. They have defeated Vanderbilt, Syracuse, and bubble teams Dayton, St. Bonaventure, and Davidson.
Next game: Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament – vs. Richmond (Q2) or Rhode Island (Q3)
Virginia Tech Hokies 20 – 12 (11 – 9 ACC)
Darius Maddox gave us a special March moment on Wednesday night as he nailed a 3-point buzzer-beater to get by red-hot Clemson. If that shot didn’t fall it would have essentially ended the Hokies season. Instead, we have a well-shooting team making a run to the First Four and still alive for an ACC Title.
Next game: ACC Tournament – vs. Notre Dame (Q1)
Next *Five* Out
BYU Cougars 22 – 10 (9 – 6 WCC)
On Saturday night the Cougars lost a must-win game against San Francisco in the WCC Quarterfinals. A lot would need to happen for BYU to be an at-large, and honestly, it’s close to impossible at this point.
Next game: Waiting for Selection Sunday
Florida Gators 19 – 12 (9 – 9 SEC)
The Gators need to beat Texas A&M on Thursday afternoon. Winner keeps their season alive one more night before facing Auburn, loser likely goes to the NIT.
Next game: SEC Tournament – vs. Texas A&M (Q2)
Dayton Flyers 22 – 9 (14 – 4 A-10)
Joe Lunardi has Dayton as the second team out of the Tournament. HOW?! The Flyers did beat Kansas and Miami in neutral site games in Orlando back in November, but their resume has three Quad 4 losses: UMass Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay.
If you want to compare Dayton to Rutgers, don’t. Rutgers has wins over Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois.
Next game: Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament – vs. George Washington (Q4) or UMass (Q3)
Virginia Cavaliers 19 – 12 (13 – 8 ACC)
Tony Bennett’s squad needed to beat Louisville in the 2nd Round of the ACC Tournament to keep their hopes alive. They will get a big opportunity against North Carolina on Thursday. Virginia would obviously move up with a win over UNC, and would square up with either Virginia Tech or Notre Dame in the ACC Semifinals.
Next game: ACC Tournament – vs. North Carolina (Q1)
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 20 – 8 (12 – 5 A-10)
Last week, the Bonnies were toasted by VCU, 74-51. Before that, they were trending towards getting some respect on the bubble. This is a veteran team with shot makers and a rim protector. It would not surprise me one bit to watch this team win the A-10 Tournament.
Next game: Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament – vs. Saint Louis (Q2) or La Salle (Q4)
List Changes from Last Week
Off the List
San Diego State Aztecs 21 – 7 (13 – 5 Mountain West)
Moved from First Four In to In the Tournament
North Carolina Tar Heels 23 – 8 (15 – 5 ACC)
Moved from First Four In to In the Tournament
Oregon Ducks 19 – 13 (11 – 9 Pac-12)
Moved from First Four Out to Not Listed
Loyola Chicago Ramblers 25 – 7 (13 – 5 Missouri Valley)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to In the Tournament as Auto-Bid
Kansas State Wildcats 14 – 17 (6 – 12 Big 12)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to Not Listed
Belmont Bruins 25 – 7 (15 – 3 Ohio Valley)
Moved from Next *Five* Out to Not Listed
New to the List
Wyoming Cowboys 24 – 7 (13 – 5 Mountain West)
Moved from In the Tournament to Next Four Byes
Xavier Musketeers 18 – 13 (8 – 11 Big East)
Moved from In the Tournament to First Four In
Virginia Tech Hokies 20 – 12 (11 – 9 ACC)
Moved from Not Listed to First Four Out
Dayton Flyers 22 – 9 (14 – 4 A-10)
Moved from Not Listed to Next *Five* Out
Virginia Cavaliers 19 – 12 (13 – 8 ACC)
Moved from Not Listed to Next *Five* Out
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 20 – 8 (12 – 5 A-10)
Moved from Not Listed to Next *Five* Out
MADNESS!!!