Folks, we are only 25 days away from Selection Sunday. Every night across the nation the landscape of college basketball changes ever-so-slightly. Each game means something a little extra as February winds down and the window of opportunity closes fast for some teams.
The Selection Committee looks at numerous metrics and stats to decide what teams deserve to be in the field of 68 and what teams do not. One of the most important tools the Committee uses is the NCAA’s own NET rankings. NET stands for ‘NCAA Evaluation Tool,’ and rewards teams for beating quality opponents based on where the game is played and strength of the opponent.
Based off the NCAA’s NET ranking, four quadrants are created to separate all 358 schools. This is how quadrant victories are classified:
Quad 1: Home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. top 50 teams, road games against top 75 teams.
Quad 2: Home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral games vs. 51-100, road games vs. 76 -135.
Quad 3: Home games against teams ranked 76-160, neutral games vs. 101-200, road games vs. 136-240.
Quad 4: Home games against teams ranked 161-358, neutral games vs. 201-358, road games vs. 241-358.
Yeah, that is a lot to handle. Trying to figure out teams on the bubble is a massive headache already, so why not add all of that in?
Here is my breakdown of teams on the bubble who are safe and who are not… for now.
Last Four Byes
North Carolina Tar Heels 18 – 7 (10 – 4)
One of the most bizarre resumes in the country, the Tar Heels have a 0 – 7 record against Quad 1 teams. Undefeated in all other quadrants, UNC has avoided the “bad loss” but there is no signature win. They have beat Virginia Tech and Michigan, who are ranked No. 35 and 36 in NET.
Next two games: vs. Pitt (Q4), @ Virginia Tech (Q1)
San Francisco Dons 21 – 6 (8 – 4)
The Dons are trying to reach their first NCAA Tournament since 1998. A Quad 4 loss last Tuesday at home to Portland was a major ding to the resume, but San Francisco rallied fast by beating Pepperdine 105-61 and Santa Clara 74-58. San Fran is 2 – 3 in Quad 1 games with wins over BYU and Santa Clara, and 6 – 2 in Quad 2.
Next two games: @ Saint Mary’s (Q1), @ Pacific (Q4)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 20 – 7 (10 – 6)
Wake Forest had an opportunity to solidify their resume Tuesday night in Cameron Indoor Stadium but lost 76-74 after a three-quarters court Hail Mary bounced off the backboard and out of the rim. Wake has one single Quad 1 victory over Virginia Tech, but a winning record of 4 – 3 in Quad 2.
Next two games: vs. Notre Dame (Q2), @ Clemson (Q2)
Iowa State Cyclones 17 – 9 (4 – 9)
The Cyclones needed to beat TCU on Tuesday night to avoid a five-game losing streak, but instead notched their eight Q1 victory of the season. If you needed any more proof that the Big 12 is the toughest conference in the land – this team was in last place at the beginning of the week. Eight Quad 1 wins is tied for 2nd in the nation.
Next two games: vs. Oklahoma (Q2), vs. West Virginia (Q2)
Last Four In
Creighton Bluejays 16 – 8 (8 – 5)
With wins over Villanova, Marquette, UConn, and fellow bubble member BYU, Creighton has found themselves on track to make the NCAA Tournament. In the top two quadrants the Bluejaysare a combined 4 – 7 giving them a NET ranking of 71, which is low for their spot on the bubble. Their one Quad 3 loss was to Arizona State by one point.
Overall, I think Creighton has done enough at this point in the season to have an at-large bid.
Next two games: @ DePaul (Q2), vs. Marquette (Q2)
Oregon Ducks 17 – 8 (10 – 4)
A preseason favorite to make some noise in the Pac 12, Dana Altman’s squad started slow out of the gates. Two major victories on the road against UCLA and USC have given the Ducks two Quad 1 wins this season. With a combined record of 6 – 5 in Quad 1 and Quad 2, Oregon has a good resume to stay on the right side of the bubble.
Oregon still has four more Quad 1 games to finish up the regular season.
Next two games: @ Arizona State (Q2), @ Arizona (Q1)
Oklahoma Sooners 14 – 12 (4 – 9)
The Sooners lost a heartbreaker to Texas in overtime on Tuesday night. What could have been a massive Quad 1 victory turned into their ninth Q1 loss. Oklahoma’s Quad 3 loss came at home to Butler in overtime back in early December.
This team is hanging on for now, but there are plenty of opportunities left to bolster the resume.
Next two games: @ Iowa State (Q1), @ Texas Tech (Q1)
Memphis Tigers 15 – 8 (9 – 4)
Winners of six straight, Penny Hardaway’s squad has worked their way back on to the bubble. The Tigers’ four Quad 1 wins are more than the likes of North Carolina, Wake Forest, Creighton, and Oklahoma. Memphis has struggled in Quad 2 going 2 – 4 and have two Quad 3 losses to Georgia and East Carolina.
It has been an up-and-down season but having four Quad 1 wins right now in the season is a good sign.
Next two games: @ SMU (Q1), vs. Temple (Q3)
First Four Out
Michigan Wolverines 13 – 10 (7 – 6)
The Wolverines can make a strong push in the last stretch of the regular season. Six of their next seven games are in Quad 1 – that is the benefit of playing in the Big Ten. At 2 – 6 in Q1, Michigan’s dominant win over Purdue last week really made their resume jump.
Juwan Howard and Michigan still have some work to do, but their path is laid out perfectly for them to make the tournament.
Next two games: @ Iowa (Q1), @ Wisconsin (Q1)
BYU Cougars 19 – 8 (7 – 5)
Struggling as of late, BYU has found themselves on the bubble after starting the season 17 – 4. The Cougars had a horrific Quad 4 loss to Pacific in late January, then lost to bubble team San Francisco and were destroyed by Gonzaga in Spokane. Their past two wins haven’t come easy, they had to fight until the last second against Q3 Loyola Marymount and Q4 Pepperdine, both on the road.
Right now, I do not see BYU as a tournament team.
Next two games: @ Saint Mary’s (Q1), vs. Loyola Marymount (Q4)
San Diego State Aztecs 15 – 6 (7 – 3)
The Aztecs have a scary good defense allowing only 57.7 points/game, third in the country. San Diego State seems to be missing a key victory on their resume. They have two Quad 1 wins against Saint Mary’s and Colorado State (which looks better week after week) but only have two Q2 wins. Most of their season has been played against Quad 3 and 4, but this team can gain some serious ground in the next couple of weeks.
The Mountain West has been phenomenal this season, giving the Aztecs a lot of Q1 and Q2 chances to end the regular season.
Next two games: @ Fresno State (Q1), @ Boise State (Q1)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 15 – 9 (9 – 5)
High hopes going into the season were quickly shot down as Rutgers went on a three-game skid in late November. Most of the time, not a big deal knowing you will have the rest of the season to find your footing, but when those losses are to DePaul, Lafayette, and UMass your season is in serious jeopardy.
Head coach Steve Pikiell has done an amazing job turning this season around. Rutgers has a record of 5 – 3 in Quad 1 but a home loss to Lafayette, ranked 315th in NET, will be a major ding to the resume if the selection committee must split hairs with teams.
Victories over Purdue, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State… that sounds like a tournament team to me.
Next two games: vs. Illinois (Q1), @ Purdue (Q1)
Next *Five* Out
Kansas State Wildcats 14 – 11 (6 – 7)
Bruce Weber’s Wildcats are making a little noise on the bubble with two Quad 1 victories so far in February. Being in this position, Kansas State can’t take more than one more loss to finish out the regular season and have to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament.
Next two games: @ Oklahoma State (Q1), @ Kansas (Q1)
Belmont Bruins 22 – 5 (12 – 2)
There is only one reason the Bruins are on this list: the Murray State Racers. The top two teams of the Ohio Valley Conference have put together decent resumes, but as of right now it seems only one will make March Madness by winning their conference tournament. With Murray State currently being the automatic qualifier, Belmont has to sit on the bubble.
Belmont is a combined 3 – 5 in the top two quadrants with wins over Saint Louis, Iona, and Chattanooga.
Next two games: vs. Eastern Illinois (Q4), @ Murray State (Q1)
Florida Gators 16 – 10 (6 – 7)
A Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern is weighing down this Gators team. A neutral site win over Ohio State is Florida’s only Q1 victory and the Gators have lost seven straight in the top quadrant. This teams needs at least one or two quality wins to put themselves in a good spot on the bubble.
Next two games: vs. Auburn (Q1), vs. Arkansas (Q1)
Virginia Tech Hokies 16 – 10 (8 – 7)
The Hokies have won six straight, giving this team some hope down the stretch. With zero Quad 1 wins, Virginia Tech needs all the help they can get. As of right now the only Q1 game on their schedule is February 26 in Miami. This team needs to extend their winning streak into the ACC Tournament to position themselves as an at-large team.
Next two games: vs. North Carolina (Q2), @ Georgia Tech (Q3)
SMU Mustangs 18 – 5 (9 – 2)
As Jon Rothstein would say, this team is a couple games awayfrom being in position to be in position. SMU pulled off a massive win last Wednesday night against Houston to give them their second Quad 1 victory of the season. A Q3 loss to Missouri and Q4 loss to Loyola Marymount are major eyesores to the Mustangs resume, but both happened in late November. SMU has won 15 of their last 17 and need to continue their hot streak to even be in consideration.
The Mustangs still have to play Memphis and Houston in the regular season and could potentially match up again against both in the AAC Tournament.
Next two games: @ Temple (Q2), vs. Memphis (Q2)