The Kansas City Chiefs are widely regarded as one of the NFL’s best teams. This holds true despite a 2-2 start to the season. The Chiefs have lost to the Ravens and the Chargers, while winning games against the Browns and the Eagles. They come into “Sunday Night Football” as three point favorites (-3) on most betting sites. This one may go down as one of the best games of the season. The two teams get set to meet for the first time since last year’s AFC Championship game. A game in which the Chiefs proved to be too much for the Bills, winning by a final score of 38-24.
For the Bills to win this one, a lot of things will have to go their way. Arrowhead Stadium will be loud, and most likely wet, as the forecast for the game looks a lot like the weather we saw last Sunday when the Bills hosted the Texans. Bills fans will patiently await the availability of star linebacker Matt Milano, as he plays a key role in their defense. As for the Chiefs, they may be without start defensive tackle Chris Jones, who sat out all three days of practice this week. When it comes to what it takes to win against a team like the Chiefs, a team nearly has to play perfect. However, the Bills are a great football team, and have just as big of a chance as everyone to knock of the big dogs.
Let’s take a look at three keys to the game that can lead Buffalo to that road win that they and their fans so desperately crave:
1.) Establish a Steady, Strong Run Game
In case you missed it, I wrote an article last week that really highlighted the strengths of the Bills running game. Both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have been effective for the Bills. The Chiefs have really struggled against the run this season, giving up 584 rush yards through their first four games. That ranks as the 4th worst in all of the NFL, and the worst in the AFC. Also, they have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the ground, tied with the Houston Texans for the most in the league. Pair the Moss/Singletary tandem with the running ability of Josh Allen, and this could be a long night for the Chiefs run defense.
Setting up a solid run game only betters the play-action pass. That just so happens to be one of the biggest strengths of Allen and this Bills offense. That gives the Bills the ability to play to one of their major strengths. This allows the receivers to find open space to make catches after plays breakdown, something they have been very good at over the past year.
2.) Pressure, Pressure, and More Pressure
We all watched Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes frantically run around in the pocket in Super Bowl 55 a season ago. The pressure applied by the Buccaneers defense was simply too much, and ended up having a huge impact on the outcome of the game just as they had wanted it to. The Chiefs made multiple changes to their offensive line in the offseason to address the issue, and it has paid off. Mahomes, like Allen, has only been sacked 5 times on the season.
However, Sean McDermott is getting more out of his front four on defense than he ever has in his time in Buffalo. When it comes to advance statistics, the Bills rank at the top of the league in hurry percentage at 17.5%. This means that they are hurrying the ball out of the quarterback’s hands faster than any other defense in the league. They have a pressure percentage of 34.3%, ranking second in the league. They have recorded the 7th most sacks in the league with 12, and they do all this with only a 23% blitz rate, one of the lower rates in the NFL. This Bills front four can get to the QB, and that will be one of the big things to look for Sunday night.
3.) Finish Your Drives
It goes without saying that you cannot settle for field goals against a team like the Chiefs. A few times this season, and mostly last week, the Bills were forced to settle for field goals on drives where they thought they were primed for a score. Obviously it didn’t mean much in a game they went on to win 40-0, but that was the Texans, not the Chiefs. Most notably, this happened on the very first drive of the season. Isiah McKenzie started the game with a 75-yard kick return that somehow resulted as a field goal. A score there very well makes that a completely different ball game.
The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL at making other teams pay for their mistakes. You fail to put up seven after a start in their territory or settle for a field goal inside the 10, and they will make it come back to hurt. They can score often, and they can score quick. The Bills need to do their best to not leave any points off the board on Sunday.
Prediction
This Bills defense has been simply on another level this season. Obviously, they won’t shut out the Chiefs like they did to the Dolphins and Texans. But, coming in off of performance like that has this unit playing with confidence. If the Bills are able to do those three things, as well as take care of the football of course, they should be able to go into Arrowhead and leave with a W. A win in a game like this on national TV would be huge for this franchise. The city as long awaited to celebrate a team as good as this one.
I can see this being a very high-scoring game. However, I could also see it being a dog fight if the weather forecast holds true. Right now, I have a strong feeling that the Bills can pull this one out. I got them winning by a score of 31-27, or something along those lines. Either way, it should be a close game that’s a lot of fun to watch. Let’s just hope that it ends with the right team on top.
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