BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
What’s up my fellow degenerates! I’m some guy named Steve and each day I will provide you with my favorite college basketball picks! You’ll see favorites, underdogs, totals, teams you never knew existed, and of course winners. So without further ado, here are my three favorites for tonight’s action.
Houston (-16.5) at East Carolina
Now I’m not normally one to recommend giant favorites, and it’s very rare that a favorite this large falls into my top three, but I’ll make an exception for Houston. Houston (15-1) has been rolling all year with a record of 12-4 against the spread. They have covered their last six games with an average win margin of 21.6 points in those contests. They are ranked 19th (out of 357 teams) in the country in offensive efficiency and are 1st in defensive efficiency. Tonight they face ECU who has been absolutely dreadful in the past month. Since the start of 2021, ECU is 0-5 and hasn’t covered a single one of those spreads. ECU has averaged only 60.8 pts/game in those contests and has failed to shoot over 44 percent in any of them. In fact, they’ve shot below 40 percent from the floor in three out of the five games. I’ll take my chances with the best defensive team in the country laying 16.5 points.
Incarnate Word (+7) at Lamar
For the next game tonight, I’m looking at the Southland conference, and two teams that most people didn’t even know existed. Incarnate Word (6-8, 7-4 ATS) faces Lamar (4-11, 6-9 ATS) in a battle between two sub 300 teams. Both teams are BAD. There’s no denying that but is Lamar seven points better than IW? I don’t think so. For starters, IW is shooting 46.2 percent from the floor this year, while Lamar is only shooting 39.7 percent. IW also has a point differential of just -1.1 compared to Lamar’s point differential of -11.9. Now you can argue that IW has played a cupcake schedule (292nd ranked), but Lamar’s 231st ranked SOS isn’t much better. I’ll take the points in this toilet bowl.
Seton Hall (-1.5) at Providence
Our final game of the night is a battle between two potential bubble teams in the Big East. Seton Hall (9-8, 10-7 ATS) and Providence (9-8, 8-9 ATS) both come into this game struggling as of late and need a big win. Seton Hall has lost four of its last five but don’t let that scare you off them because all 4 losses came to the two best teams in the Big East, Villanova and Creighton. Outside of those two teams, Seton Hall has been dominant against the rest of the conference with a record of 6-1, 5-2 ATS. Their lone loss came in a home game against Providence in overtime. Providence shot 47 percent from the field in that game, 50 percent from three-point range compared to Seton Hall shooting 43 percent and 33 percent from three-point range. Expect those numbers to be closer in the rematch and possibly favor Seton Hall, who has been the better offensively ranked team all year. Tonight I’m playing the revenge narrative for a Seton Hall team who will be thrilled to see anyone besides Villanova and Creighton on the other side of the court.
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