BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Update: I am still in the dumpster and we are digging deeper than ever. With only one ranked team on the schedule tonight there’s a lot of trash that needs to be taken out and I have found three road favorites among all of the waste. What could possibly go wrong?
Record: 8-14-1 (-7.3u) ?
Northern Kentucky (-1) at Green Bay
I’m not going to overthink this game. Outside of Wright State, nobody as of late has been playing better basketball in the Horizon conference than Northern Kentucky (11-8, 9-8-1 ATS). They are currently on a six-game winning streak covering the spread in all but one of those contests. Their offense has been scorching hot, too, shooting the ball at a 48.4 percent clip and averaging 77.8 points in those games. Tonight they face Green Bay (6-14, 11-8-1 ATS), a team that has lost three of its last four games and is 2-6, 3-5 ATS in the first game of back-to-backs. Part of the reason for Green Bay’s struggles is a poor defense that ranks 326th in defensive efficiency and allows opponents to shoot 47.6 percent against them. With the way Northern Kentucky’s offense has been flying I’m going to trust them to keep it rolling versus a weak Green Bay defense.
Stetson (-6) at Kennesaw State
One of my favorite teams to bet against the past last year was Kennesaw State (3-15, 9-6 ATS). The Owls were outmatched in almost every game, and most of those games were over by halftime. This year they have been a bit more respectable but have been starting to struggle again this past month. In their first meeting vs. fellow Atlantic Sun teams, Kennesaw State is a dreadful (0-5, 1-4 ATS), losing those games by 13.2 points a game. They are scoring an embarrassing 56.8 points a game in those contests and should struggle to score vs. a tough Stetson defense.
Bellarmine (-5.5) at North Alabama
Meet Bellarmine. It may be their first year in division 1 but you would not be able to guess it by watching them. Bellarmine (11-5, 10-4 ATS) has become a force in the Atlantic Sun. The Knights are undefeated and a ridiculous 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. They have been shooting lights out all year at 51.0 percent which is 7th best in all of college basketball. On the defensive side, Bellarmine is just as good. Bellarmine only allows 66.8 points a game which is 85th best in the country. During the Knights’ eight-game win streak they have allowed even less (62ppg) and have only once surrendered more than 70. Tonight they face North Alabama (10-6, 4-8 ATS) who has lost three straight and given up 79 points a game in those contests. The Lions are ranked 230th in adjusted defensive efficiency and I don’t think they will be able to stop the high-scoring offense of Bellarmine.
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