BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
To say last night was a meltdown would be a massive understatement.
With about 5-6 minutes left in the second half every single game looked like they were on their way to comfortable wins but naturally they all collapsed. Lets start with Florida (+5) who was WINNING 62-61 with a little over four minutes to go. The Gators end up losing 75-64 after missing their last six shots and allowing Arkansas to go on a 14-2 run.
PAIN!
How about Austin Peay (-6.5) who was winning by ten with just over five minutes left in the game. Not only did the Governors fail to cover but they allowed SE Missouri to roar back, force overtime, and eventually win outright 86-81.
PAIN!
Last but not least we have Illinois (-12) who was up double digits all game and lead by 12 with seven minutes to go. Instead of doing what most superior teams do in this situation and put away the lesser talented team, Illinois did the exact opposite. The Fightin Illini allowed Northwestern to pull within a single possession thanks to a glorious 11-22 showing from the free throw line and eventually only won the game by seven points.
PAIN!
PAIN!
PAIN!
Record: 12-18-1 (-8.7u)
Syracuse at Louisville Under 141
I’m going to keep it short and sweet for my reasoning behind each pick tonight. Louisville plays at one of the slowest paces (301st) in all of college basketball. The Cardinals are coming off a two week lay off so there could be some rust at the start of the game. The key to beating the Syracuse 2-3 zone is shooting the ball well from behind the arc and that is something Louisville has struggled with this season. The Cardinals are shooting 31.9 percent from three-point range which ranks 258th in the NCAA. The good news for the Cardinals is they have a great defense (30th overall) and have held opponents to 62.6ppg and only 39 percent from the floor when they are home. This will play right into the road struggles of Syracuse who score 4.5ppg less and shoot 2 percent worse than it does at home.
Radford (-4) vs Gardner Webb
Garnder Webb (8-14, 9-13 ATS) has struggled on the road this season. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are 1-10 on the road this season and only 1-6 in conference play. Tonight they play Radford (13-9, 12-8-1) who has handled its business at home in conference play with a record of 6-2. The Highlanders’ only losses came from Winthrop aka the best team in the conference. With Radford having the slight edge shooting 46.3 percent to 43.8 percent and on the glass 38.4rpg to 34.7rpg there is enough here for me to justify taking Radford to cover.
Kentucky (-3) at Vanderbilt
Listen I get it. Kentucky is bad. But are the Wildcats lose to Vanderbilt bad? I don’t think so. In the first match-up between these teams Kentucky won 77-74 despite being out-rebounded 42-29. Considering Kentucky has the significant size advantage and averages over 4 rebounds a game more than Vanderbilt I see the boards swinging in its favor. More rebounds means more possessions and more shots. Vanderbilt took nine more shots than Kentucky in the first game and that will be very hard to repeat if the rebounds come back to normalcy. I’m going to trust the Wildcats 26th ranked defense and size advantage to give them the edge tonight and win by more than a possession.
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