BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Last night was very fun!
We went 2-0-1 that included a dominant win by Florida, Bowling Green overcoming a seventeen-point first-half deficit to win and cover comfortably, and Prairie View being up big all game but eventually pushing against Arkansas Pine Bluff.
With a giant 38 game college basketball slate I have found five of my favorite lines to take tonight! Let’s get this free money!
Overall Record: 20-24-2 (-7.2u)
Last Week: 8-7 (+.3u)
This Week: 3-2-1 (+.8u)
Rutgers (-3) vs. Indiana
Our first game tonight is a Big Ten battle between two teams that both desperately need a win. Rutgers (12-9, 10-10-1 ATS) and Indiana (12-10, 12-9-1) are both squarely on the bubble, and a win for either side would massively help build its resume.
Rutgers won by a score of 74-70 despite Indiana shooting 10-16 from the three-point range in the first meeting between these two teams. I expect that number to come back down to earth as Rutgers has the 14th best defensive efficiency in the NCAA and only allows teams to shoot 31.9% from behind the arc at home.
Indiana’s defense has been the opposite. In conference play, Indiana has the 4th worst defensive efficiency of all Big Ten schools and has allowed opponents to shoot a conference-best 36.7% from behind the arc. Tonight I’m taking the Scarlet Knights. They are the better defensive team and desperately need a win.
Incarnate Word (-2) vs Lamar
I’m going to keep this one short and simple because it clearly involves the worst teams out of our five games tonight. Lamar (4-17, 8-13 ATS) travels to Incarnate Word (8-9, 9-4-1 ATS) looking for revenge from IW’s 67-58 win in the first match-up.
Both teams are bad but I’m going with the same reasoning I did the first time I chose Incarnate Word over Lamar. Incarnate is just a better offensive team.
Incarnate shoots 46% from the field, 39.5% from 3pt range, and 69.5% from the line compared to Lamar who shoots 39.6% from the field, 27.7% from 3pt range, and 73.5% from the line. Incarnate also out-rebounded Lamar 38-28 in the first game between the two schools.
That’s enough for me to roll the dice with Incarnate Word again.
Florida State (-12) at Miami
Outside of Gonzaga and Baylor, Florida State (13-3, 9-6-1 ATS) might be the country’s best team. The Seminoles are tall, athletic, and dominant on both offense and defense. Tonight they travel to Miami (7-13, 9-11 ATS) to take on a Hurricanes team dealing with the injury bug.
Florida State has the 10th best offensive efficiency and the 41st best defensive efficiency in college basketball. They shoot 47.2% from the field (38th best) and average 37.3 rebounds a game (79th best). Miami, on the other hand, has not been great. Miami ranks 201st in offensive efficiency, 95th in defensive efficiency, shoots 42.3% from the field (252nd), and averages 35.6 rebounds a game (142nd).
In the first contest between these two teams, Florida State won 81-59, outshooting Miami 51.6% to 37% and out-rebounding Miami 45 to 23. With the recent injuries to Miami, I don’t see anything preventing Florida State from winning another matchup.
Alabama (+2) at Arkansas
Our next game is a battle of two of the SEC’s best between Alabama (18-5, 13-9-1 ATS) and Arkansas (17-5, 13-7-1 ATS).
It was a blood bath between both teams in the first meeting of the season as Alabama trounced Arkansas 90-59. In that game, the Crimson Tide held the Razorbacks to 33.3% from the field and 23.5% from three-point range while shooting 48.4% from the field and 41.7% from three-point range themselves. Alabama also had the advantage on the boards 43-36 and forced more turnovers, 18 to 14.
While I think tonight’s game will be a little closer than the last, I still consider Alabama a significantly better team. Alabama ranks higher than Arkansas in both offensive (24th to 37th) and defensive efficiency (2nd to 20th) and is one of only eight teams in the entire country to be top 25 in both stats. Alabama also makes the second most three-pointers per game (10.9) out of any team in the country and should be able to repeat its success from behind the arc they had in game one.
The Razorbacks may play a better game tonight than they did the first time around, but I will never pass up on getting points with Alabama. Take the Crimson Tide.
Tulsa (-2) vs Cincinnati
Our final game tonight is between Tulsa (10-9, 10-8 ATS) and Cincinnati (7-8, 3-12 ATS).
Do you ever have one of those teams that just seems loyal to you? A team that always seems to show up when you bet on them or a team that has miraculous comeback victories for you? That team for me is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Whether it’s football or basketball, the Golden Hurricane has always seemed to come through for me, so I will trust them again tonight.
Tonight they face Cincinnati, who has had a very disappointing season. Normally Cincinnati is a tournament team, but this year has been much different. The Bearcats find themselves with a losing record due to a struggling offense (144th ranked) and poor shooting percentage (261st ranked).
The strength of Tulsa’s team has been defense. Tulsa has the 58th best defensive efficiency in college basketball and has held opponents to 65ppg (43rd best). They have held opponents to just 40.8% shooting which is 45th best in the country.
I’m going to trust the loyal Tulsa to defend well and win against a poor Cincinnati offense.
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