BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Last night we went 2-3. Tulsa missing free throws and turning the ball over with five seconds left was the difference between a losing and winning night yesterday. Outside of Tulsa we had convincing wins by Rutgers and Florida State, a complete whiff with Incarnate Word, and a second half meltdown by Alabama. Tonight we are looking to bounce back with three college basketball plays.
Overall Record: 22-27-2 (-8.5u)
Last Week: 8-7 (+.3u)
This Week: 5-5-1 (-.5u)
Prairie View (-31) vs Mississippi Valley State
Yes, you read that right. I am taking a 31 point favorite tonight. Prairie View pushed for us last time, so I will continue to ride their absurd 11-1-1 ATS record. Now I know 31 points is a ton, and I usually never recommend laying that many points, but let me tell you why.
Prairie View (9-4, 11-1-1 ATS) hosts Mississippi Valley State (1-16, 5-14 ATS) aka the worst team in college basketball. According to Kenpom rankings, Mississippi Valley State is ranked 357th out of 357 teams. The Delta Devils are dead last. They are also ranked dead last in offensive and defensive efficiency. Is if that wasn’t bad enough, Mississippi Valley State is ranked 357th in field goal percentage (34.8%), 278th in 3pt percentage (31.3%), and 345th in free throw percentage (59.9%). It gets worse.
Besides shooting, Mississippi Valley State is ranked 348th in opposing field goal percentage (49.4%), 334th in rebounds per game (29.6), 356th in turnovers per game (18), and dead last in average scoring margin at -34.4ppg. No you don’t need glasses. Mississippi Valley State loses by an average of 34.4 points a game!!!
In its first game this year Prairie View dismantled Mississippi Valley State by a score of 77-31 and held the Delta Devils to only five points in the second half. FIVE POINTS. In that game, the Panthers didn’t even shoot that well. They were 50% from the field but only 25% from three-point range. They forced Mississippi Valley to turn the ball over 29 times which was almost as many shots (33) as Mississippi Valley took the entire game!
I’m not overthinking this. 31 points seem like a ton but when it’s against Mississippi Valley State I will gladly lay the Delta Devils. Prairie View is the best team in the SWAC and should destroy Mississippi Valley State for the second time this season.
Ohio State (-4) at Michigan State
Our next game tonight is a Big Ten match-up between Ohio State (18-5, 14-8-1 ATS) and Michigan State (12-9, 6-15 ATS).
Ohio State continues to be the outlier in the Big Ten for winning on the road. The Buckeyes have won and covered in their last six Big Ten road games and are looking for a seventh tonight. A lot of their road success can be credited to their offense, ranked 3rd in all of college basketball. Ohio State averages 77.4ppg on the road (26th best) and shoots 46.5% from the field (44th best). During their recent six-game road winning streak, the Buckeyes have increased these numbers to 82.3ppg and 50.8%.
Normally a dominant team, Michigan State has not had its usual success this season. In Big Ten conference play, Michigan State is 6-9 overall and 4-11 ATS. The Spartans’ defense has been a let down allowing 71.7ppg (204th overall) and opponents to shoot 42.5% (121st overall). It will be tough for them to stop Ohio State’s 3rd ranked offense that has shown no signs of slowing down.
The first time these two teams faced, Ohio State won 79-62, and I am expecting this game to go a similar direction. The Buckeyes offense will be too much for the Spartans’ lackluster defense to handle.
Minnesota (-4.5) vs Northwestern
Our final game tonight is another Big Ten battle between Minnesota (13-10, 10-12-1 ATS) and Northwestern (6-14, 8-10-1 ATS).
Minnesota is in full desperation mode. The Golden Gophers have lost three consecutive games, and their tournament hopes are quickly fading. They are currently in the “Last Four In” section of ESPN’s bracketology and will need to win tonight if they want to stay on the right side of the bubble.
Luckily for the Golden Gophers, they face Northwestern, who has lost its last thirteen games and only covered in three of those games. The good news for the Golden Gophers is they are home this year where they have been much better than on the road. Minnesota is 6-2 at home in Big Ten conference games with wins over Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Iowa. Minnesota won these games convincingly by an average of 14.7ppg. I the Golden Gophers to play that way tonight.
College basketball is an emotional sport and we have reached the part of the season where you can take advantage of teams in must win situations. Northwestern and Minnesota are two struggling teams but Minnesota’s situation is entirely different than Northwestern’s. The Golden Gophers need to do everything they can to prove they belong in the tournament. They have to win at all costs tonight and win by a large margin to build their resume. I believe that they can do that.
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