We’ve made it to an incredibly enviable position. The turnaround has not set in for all Bills fans, but we are now one of the big dogs (S/O “Head of the Table” Roman Reigns). But for some reason, Bills fans mindsets are still operating as if we are a flash in the pan.
I understand this is not the most prudent decision that our Buffalo Bills could make this upcoming week.
But let me present you a case as to why the Buffalo Bills should be selecting Najee Harris or Travis Etienne in this year’s NFL Draft.
Haven’t we preached “Trust the Process” over and over til our ears have started bleeding? But would be upset with our one and only BIG BALLER BEANE if he decides to draft a running back? Why? Since when has the organization made a decision in the first round that we could TRULY question.
(Okay, maybe when they traded away Patrick Mahomes. But we’re not going there today).
BUT FOR REAL.
Even if your mileage varies on that, as I’m sure it does for a lot of Bills fans. Beane has done an incredible job of finding value through the draft and providing the Bills with building blocks in every round. Not just the first couple of them.
Rarely has Beane made the wrong decision during this process. So, if he’s enamored with one of these prospects, who are we to argue?
The reality is this team has brought the whole gang back to take another run at the Big Game this year. Last year, you would have found me yelling at anyone within earshot that this was the most complete roster in the NFL. Maybe not THE most talented or THE deepest, but certainly the most complete. I believe that remains true right now after bringing back so many key players into the fold for the 2021 season.
With that mindset going forward, I looked at this roster up and down from last year and asked myself…
“If the Bills had the opportunity to upgrade a position from the most complete roster in the league, what would be the biggest net gain?”
Let’s just look at the production of the Bills running backs last year compared to a few previous 1st round running backs in their first seasons.
THE TEST CASES
DEVIN SINGLETARY
2020 season: 16 Games Started, 687 Rushing Yards, 269 Receiving Yards, 4 Total TD’s
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE
2020 (ROOKIE) season: 13 Games Started, 803 Rushing Yards, 297 Receiving Yards, 5 Total TD’s
JOSH JACOBS
2019 (ROOKIE) season: 13 Games Started, 1150 Rushing Yards, 166 Receiving Yards, 7 Total TD’s
MILES SANDERS
2019 (ROOKIE) season: 11 Games Started, 818 Rushing Yards, 508 Receiving Yards, 6 Total TD’s
SAQUON BARKLEY
2018 (ROOKIE) season: 16 Games Started, 1307 Rushing Yards, 721 Receiving Yards, 15 Total TD’s
RASHAAD PENNY
2018 (ROOKIE) season: 0 Games Started, 419 Rushing Yards, 75 Receiving Yards, 2 Total TD’s
SONY MICHEL
2018 (ROOKIE) season: 8 Games Started, 931 Rushing Yards, 50 Receiving Yards, 6 Total TD’s
So as a Bills Fan, are you telling me that you’re truly happy with that kind of production from Singletary as he took over the lead back duties last year? OR would you be willing to take your shot at one of the seasons above?
Singletary is a solid option, don’t get me wrong. This isn’t meant to be a knock on him, he’s going to be a serviceable back in the NFL for years to come. Whether it’s in Buffalo or somewhere else, he will find a role in this league for some time.
He is exceptional in small areas, with the ability to make defenders miss. But he lacks the top-end speed to make a good play into an explosive play. He’s also lacked in pass protection ability throughout his career, leading the Bills to turn to Zack Moss and TJ Yeldon to specialize in those roles the past few seasons.
Singletary is solid, but not spectacular. And as a Super Bowl contender, we should be striving for spectacular where we can.
Would you take the chance on production from one of the above rookies? Surely, you would take Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley’s seasons, but their workload far exceeds what we should expect from any Bills running back this year given our Quarterback is an absolute flame thrower.
Would you take CEH’s production? If he doesn’t get injured, he ends up with over 1,000 yards rushing and already had more receiving yards than Singletary in three fewer games.
What about Miles Sanders? In 11 games he was able to amass more rushing AND receiving yards than Singletary last year.
The cautionary tales are Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny, who were selected at 27 and 31 in the 2018 NFL Draft. Michel has not worked out like New England planned as a receiving back.
But, even in his “disappointing” rookie campaign, Michel still rushed for close to 1,000 yards while sharing the backfield with James White.
Rashaad Penny hasn’t worked out for Seattle. He’s found himself losing carries to Chris Carson over the last few years.
I presented this choose your own adventure style breakdown of previous 1st round RB’s to get to this year’s draft.
Travis Etienne (my pick for the Bills) and Najee Harris (wouldn’t mind this either though) are more talented than all of the running backs above outside of Saquon Barkley. Bar none. Don’t believe me, just watch (and read).
THE NEW GUYS
NAJEE HARRIS
2020 college season: 13 Games, 1466 Rushing Yards, 425 Receiving Yards, 30 Total TD’s
From NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah: “His game is so smooth and effortless. He has a natural running style and his feel/instincts make up for his lack of elite speed. He isn’t going to be a home-run hitter at the next level, but he’s going to pile up a bunch of doubles. What does that mean? Well, it means he’s going to routinely turn 2- and 3-yard runs into 12- and 15-yard runs. He is going to excel in short yardage and he’ll be an asset out of the backfield on third down.”
From The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: “Harris has the quick, graceful feet of a much smaller back to elude pursuit, showing improved decision-making and on-field maturity as a senior in Tuscaloosa. Although he doesn’t have his home run juice, he compares favorably to Matt Forte with his athletic cuts, natural instincts, reliability as a pass catcher and toughness to wear down defenses. Overall, Harris is not a proven big-play threat, but he skillfully toggles between patience and power to press holes and maximize each run. He projects as an NFL starter due to his reliable skill set as a rusher, receiver and upside as a blocker.”
TRAVIS ETIENNE
2020 college season: 12 Games, 914 Rushing Yards, 588 Receiving Yards, 16 Total TD’s
From NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah: “NFL offensive play-callers are starving for explosive plays. It’s hard to maintain long drives without getting off schedule as the result of a penalty, individual breakdown or poor play call. Players like Etienne have tremendous value because he’s capable of scoring from anywhere on the field at any time. He’s a dynamic playmaker and still has room to improve.”
From The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: “A speed slasher, Etienne uses his deceiving run strength and deadly start-stop suddenness to force missed tackles, bursting past defenders or powering through them. He has matured as a pass catcher to be more than simply a screen target, but he must improve in pass protection to stay on the field in any situation. Overall, Etienne has room to develop his feel between the tackles, but he is an assertive ball carrier who creates chunk plays due to his immediate acceleration, explosive strides and contact balance. He projects as a home run hitter in an NFL backfield with the upside to be more.”
Most of us fans have already decided what we want from the Bills in the draft this year. The popular picks (EDGE, CB) are incredibly valuable. Those selections could be building blocks to sustain this roster for years to come and continue to build a contending team.
We know how much McDermott values defense. He has valued making sure that there is not a weak spot that teams can exploit on his defense. When there is, he addresses it.
And I would understand both of those selections and be happy with them because they are smart football moves. The talent that will be available could help make an impact this year and down the line for this franchise.
BUT.
We’re trying to win a Super Bowl. Not next year. Not in three years. THIS YEAR. And the missing piece to one of the most electrifying offenses in the NFL?
A dynamic running back who can affect the game running and catching the ball. Imagine how much easier Josh Allen’s life would be if he gets Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs production from one of these backs?
Or even Saquons.
It’s possible. In another bygone year, these backs are top 20 talents. They have game-breaking ability if they are used in the right situation. Brian Daboll must be licking his chops at the thought of it.
Don’t believe me? Just watch.
The Sports Desk can be reached at editorialtrainwrecksports@gmail.com