By Wake Jatkins
When I’m targeting a handcuff player I’m looking for someone who will return value on their own, but could excel if an injury opened the door for more touches. I don’t want to rely on injuries for my draft picks to pan out. But injuries happen, and if any of the starters ahead of these guys go down, then we might just have a league-winner on our hands. The three running backs below are players that will return flex value around 4-5 weeks in the season in their current roles, and for their ADP, that’s a pretty good value.
Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys
ADP 127 – RB45 (11th – 13th Round)
Tony Pollard could very well be in line for a heavy workload in 2021 if Ezekiel Elliot looks anything like he did last year (which was very not good). Granted, Zeke, was a victim of circumstance last year. The offensive line was a shell of the one which blazed Zeke’s trail to being a rushing champion in 2016 and 2018. His production dipped from 22.3 ppg (PPR) to just 11.2 ppg after Dak’s gruesome lower-body injury.
But Tony Pollard was dealt the same hand, and he averaged .5 more yards/touch than Zeke. That difference is massive. And it’s not because Pollard came into games in garbage time. In fact, Zeke’s biggest advantage in usage rate over Pollard came in passing situations when the Cowboys were being blown out. In one-score games, the “back up” had more passing down usage, and was only behind Zeke by 4% in rushing situations in close games.
The Cowboys brass clearly saw what everyone else did: Tony Pollard was making due when Zeke couldn’t. I think this could be more of a timeshare in the Cowboy’s backfield than most people expect. Pollard’s ADP is RB45 and 127th overall. You can get him after both running backs from the Bills, Lions, Broncos, and Raiders, just to name a few of those teams. Pollard will absolutely finish ahead of those teams’ RB2s. I have him as my 34th ranked running back for this season. Getting him in the double digits rounds is a great value because if Zeke’s struggles continue, Pollard will be getting more snaps in one of the league’s best offenses. We don’t need an injury for this pick to pan out.
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers
ADP 182 – RB56 (Undrafted)
In the limited action Christian McCaffrey saw last year before his season ended in Week 3, he was starting to look human as a runner. At the same time, he posted a career-high 8.8 yards/reception. When he went down with an injury, the play calling largely remained the same, and we watched Mike Davis ascend to fantasy football stardom.
With CMC returning from multiple injuries, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Head Coach Matt Rhule lighten his workload on runs between the tackles where he’ll be taking on the most contact. It would just make sense to keep him fresh for passing plays where he’s known for making defenders just look downright silly.
Hubbard was always more of a threat running the ball than catching it in his time at Oklahoma State. That’s not to say he doesn’t possess that ability, he absolutely does. But his primary skill set complements McCaffrey well and will give the veteran some much-needed rest. If by chance McCaffrey succumbs to injury early in the upcoming season, Hubbard will find himself with an opportunity to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and that’s a story I’d love to be emotionally and financially attached to.
Latavius Murray – New Orleans
ADP 121 – RB43 (10th – 12th Round)
We do this same dance with Latavius Murray every single year. He’s currently sitting at ADP 121 (RB43) which is actually the exact pick I took him with last season. With Alvin Kamara, he can return value for you in the right matchups. But if something were to happen to Alvin Kamara, Murray becomes the lead back in an offense that will be more explosive with Jameis Winston at the helm.
But if you aren’t a Winston fan, let me ask you, do you think any more highly of Teddy Bridgewater? In 2019, with Kamara sidelined and Bridgewater calling plays, Latavius Murray popped off for 100+ yards and 2 scores. That’s literally a one-game sample size, so I won’t say that Murray will average 24+ fantasy points in any situation.
What I will say is that he’s coming off his most productive season in quite some time. Last year he posted a career-high in catch % and yards per attempt (for a season with at least 100 touches). He earned 10+ touches in 10 of 15 games he played in, and he was utilized in the passing game more in one-score games than Alvin Kamara was (88% Usage Rate to 72%).
In 2020, the New Orleans Saints had two RBs on the field 39.5% of the time. He won’t be competing with Kamara for too many snaps when both are healthy. And if Kamara goes down, Murray is a serious candidate to be a league winner. He’s an outstanding 11th round lottery ticket who WILL return flex value (at the very least).
Looking for more insight on running backs in preparation for your fantasy leagues? Check out the latest episode of Trainwreck Fantasy Football! Which running backs should you target in the first round? What sleepers should you target? Who is most likely to bust? Find out below!
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