Houston Rockets
2019-20 record: 44-28; lost in Western Conference semifinals
Additions: F/C Christian Wood (three years, $41M sign and trade from Detroit); G Sterling Brown (one year, $1.7M); C DeMarcus Cousins (one year); F Jae’Sean Tate (two years, $2.9M); 2021 first-round pick (multiple protections through 2027, from Detroit); F Kenyon Martin, Jr. (draft rights acquired from Sacramento); G Issuf Sanon (acquired from New York); hired General Manager Raphael Stone; hired coach Stephen Silas
Subtractions: F Robert Covington (traded to Portland); F Jeff Green (signed with Brooklyn); F Isaiah Stewart (draft rights traded to Detroit); G Austin Rivers (traded to New York); G Sergio Llull (traded to New York); F Isaiah Hartenstein (waived); 2021 second-round pick (traded to Sacramento); former General Manager Daryl Morey, former coaach Mike D’Antoni
Retained: F Bruno Caboclo (one year, $2M)
Projected Starting Lineup (via RealGM)
Okay, so I have waited as long as possible to write this section for this preview. The James Harden shit keeps getting even crazier than before, and I thought he would have been moved by now.
But, we’re coming into the final weekend before the season tips off and James Harden is still a Rocket, for now. It’s hard to get a gauge on what this team is going to be without knowing about James Harden’s future. Even if he decides to stick around for a bit, they will clearly have some chemistry issues to work out in the meantime.
Just to recap let’s run through this timeline here.
- Rumblings of a Harden Trade started with a Shams tweet claiming that Harden was trying to push his way out of Houston to Brooklyn or Philly. Kevin Durant continues to deny any knowledge of this, no one believes him.
- Russell Westbrook finds out about Harden’s demand and follows suit but he gets his way. Westbrook gets traded to Washington for John Wall and a First-Round Pick.
- Harden starts WILDIN’. He’s seen on Instagram gifting rapper Lil Baby $100K in cash, designer bags, and more. He’s throwing money at a strip club in Atlanta. He’s popping up in Vegas at the strip club. All while clearly is not taking the proper COVID precautions. Meanwhile, the Rockets have started training camp and no one in the organization has heard from Harden.
- Harden shows up to Houston and has to get 7 days of consecutive negative tests before he can start practicing.
- Harden shows up to his first preseason game and looks… out of shape?
- Shams and Woj both tweet on Thursday night about potential James Harden packages including Ben Simmons.
So no, this isn’t a normal team preview because I truly don’t believe Harden will be around before the start of the season. I think something gets done in the next few days and that ultimately is the right move for Houston. There is no reason to keep this guy around anymore. He clearly doesn’t want to be there, and the dynamic in the locker room is already probably ridiculously awkward. As long as Houston gets a solid return, it’s worth it to make this move now before he continues to tank trade value with more outlandish behavior. So here are my galaxy brain trade ideas for Houston.
Most Likely Scenario
- Harden to Philadelphia for Ben Simmons, Tyrese Maxey, and a top 5 protected first-round pick
This trade has always made the most sense for both teams. Simmons gets his own team to run. Harden and Embiid would be a really interesting tandem in the East. Win-win for both organizations in my mind.
Jakes galaxy brain trade idea:
- Harden to Miami for Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Iggy, Olynyk, Precious Achuiwa, and 2022 and 2024 first-rounders
Is this worth it for Miami? If Harden buys into #HEATCulture, a trio of James, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo are as good as any combination in the East. For Houston, they get more first-rounders to refill their draft capital and acquire two of the best up and coming shooters in the league to surround John Wall as well as an interesting prospect in Achuiwa.
Jake’s even bigger galaxy brain idea:
- Harden to Cleveland for Collin Sexton, Kevin Porter Jr, Andre Drummond, Darius Garland, Milwaukee’s two #1’s that Cleveland owns, Cleveland 2021 and 2023 firsts
I’d only consider adding Garland in but don’t want to sell the entire farm. But it’s hard to get stars t to come to Cleveland and this is a chance to be competitive with a Harden/Love combo and a chance to get some playoff revenues brought in after COVID. Cleveland should jump at the chance to be relevant in the national spotlight again. For Houston? You get to trade James Harden to Cleveland. That’s about as sweet of revenge as you can get.
(It’s all love to Cleveland here. I’m a Kent State grad and I am a huge Cavs and CLE Baseball Team fan. But we gotta get these jokes off regardless. Okay, back to the preview.)
Best bet: James Harden to be traded to Philly +175 (oddshark)
Prediction: 11th in the west
Dallas Mavericks
2019-20 record: 43-32; lost in the first round
Additions: G Josh Richardson (acquired from Philadelphia); F James Johnson (acquired from Oklahoma City); F Wesley Iwundu (two years, $3.5M); G Josh Green (first round, 18th pick overall); G Tyrell Terry (second round, 31st pick overall); F Tyler Bey (draft rights acquired from Philadelphia)
Subtractions: G Seth Curry (traded to Philadelphia); G Delon Wright (traded to Detroit)
Retained: C Willie Cauley-Stein (two years, $8.2M); G J.J. Barea (one year, $2.56M); G Trey Burke (three years)
Projected Starting Lineup (via RealGM)
Luka Luka Luka. This team revolves around Luka Doncic. The axis of the NBA could very well revolve around Doncic right before our eyes this year if he continues on the trajectory that he is on. Let’s just relive some of the magical moments Doncic gave us last year in and out of the bubble.
SO yeah, this kid is special. (Last year averaged 28/9/8 that is some Lebron James level shit that you do not see every day.) He has a chance to be an MVP in this league and a chance to be one of the greatest players of all-time. That might seem like an exaggeration but he has been THAT good. There is only room to go up. How far can he bring the Mavericks with him?
What will make them successful?
This roster still feels like it’s a year away from real contention. Maybe that is disrespecting the powers of Luka, but I don’t know if they have the depth everywhere else to really contend in the loaded Western Conference. For them to reach that goal, Kristaps Porzingis will need to stay healthy.
It feels like Porzingis has never been healthy like there is always something ailing him throughout an NBA season and that is always worrisome for a big man in the league. When he is on the floor, he averages 20 points and 9 rebounds a game and brings a sweet shooting stroke from the three-point line. They need that production again to even have a chance.
Biggest Question Mark?
Depth. They don’t have a lot of help on the wings. Moving Seth Curry for Josh Richardson was a savvy move for the Mavs because he was being misused in Philly and will bring more of defensive intensity to the 2 or 3 than Curry could offer. Tyrell Terry was drafted in the second round to refill the shot creation and playmaking they will miss from Curry. But the rest of the roster is… lacking.
Regardless, it’s a solid team, but there are serious holes on the wing and behind Porzingis at the 5. This team has always been preparing for a 2021 spending spree and I think that’s when we can talk about them being a real contender.
Breakout Player
Porzingis. Please stay healthy and let us watch you and Luka cook.
Best Bet: Luka Doncic MVP +400 (via VegasInsider)
Prediction: 5th in the west
Memphis Grizzlies
2019-20 record: 34-39; did not make playoffs
Additions: G Mario Hezonja (acquired from Portland); C Xavier Tillman (draft rights acquired from Sacramento); G Desmond Bane (draft rights acquired from Boston)
Subtractions: G Robert Woodard II (draft rights traded to Sacramento)
Retained: G De’Anthony Melton (four years, $35M); G John Konchar (four years, $9M); F Jontay Porter (three years, $5.8M)
Projected Starting Lineup (via RealGM)
What will make them successful?
To continue the path they were on last year and get healthy. This team was a shoo-in for a playoff spot before Jaren Jackson Jr was injured in the bubble. As much as Ja Morant (deservedly) received much of the praise for the Grizzlies’ ascension last year, Jackson is just as vital to the success of this team. Also, we’ve never really gotten to see How Justice Winslow fits in with this team after he was traded over to Miami, but if he can stay healthy he might be the wing piece they need to complete this roster and grow together into a contender.
Biggest Question Mark?
The west got better around them. The Suns, Blazers, and Warriors are all healthy now and have added pieces in the offseason. The Pelicans (we’ll get to them) should improve on last season. Can the Grizzlies’ ascension outpace the competition, or will they come crashing back down to earth?
Breakout Player: Justice Winslow
He’s only 24, but it feels like there have been multiple versions of Winslow in the NBA already. Miami tried to turn him into a spot-up shooter, a point guard, a 3 and d wing, and none if stuck as he has battled injuries his whole career. A fresh start and a clean bill of health plus an increased role will equal an impact season for Winslow that the Grizzlies desperately could use.
Best Bet: Jaren Jackson JR Most Improved Player +1600 (via oddshark)
Prediction: 9th in the west
New Orleans Pelicans
2019-20 record: 30-42; did not make playoffs
Additions: C Steven Adams (acquired from Oklahoma City); G Eric Bledsoe (acquired from Milwaukee); C Willy Hernangomez (one year, $1.7M); F Wenyan Gabriel (one year, $1.6M); G Kira Lewis (first round, 13th pick overall); 2025, 2027 first-round picks (acquired from Milwaukee); 2024 second-round pick (acquired from Charlotte); hired coach Stan Van Gundy
Subtractions: G Jrue Holiday (traded to Milwaukee); F Derrick Favors (signed with Utah); F Kenrich Williams (traded to Oklahoma City); F Darius Miller (traded to Oklahoma City); G Joshia Gray (traded to Oklahoma City); F Zylan Cheatham (traded to Oklahoma City); C Nick Richards (draft rights traded to Charlotte); F Elijah Hughes (draft rights traded to Utah); G Sam Merrill (draft rights traded to Milwaukee); 2023, 2024 second-round picks (traded to Oklahoma City); fired coach Alvin Gentry
Retained: G Sindarious Thornwell (one year, $1.6M)
Projected Lineup (via RealGM)
What will make them successful?
Zion taking the leap as a scorer and on the defensive end. This team is centered and always has been centered on the possible success of Zion Williamson. He has certainly shown flashes of absolute greatness and dominance but we have yet to see it consistently. Make no mistake though, this is not a man that you should be counting out. In limited action last year, he took the league by storm.
The sky is the limit. He still has so much to learn but already has already had multiple 30 point games and even had a stretch of multiple 20-point games before the season was paused in March. The bubble experience wasn’t kind to Zion but it was a tough situation for a lot of players and I expect him to bounce back in a big way.
Biggest Question Mark?
How will the rest of this roster fill in around Zion? First, Brandon Ingram must continue to ascend to an all-star level. He exceeded all expectations last year and showed real flashes as a go-to scorer and an elite playmaker. If he continues to play at that level it will help take a lot of pressure off of Zion to perform.
The rest of the roster needs to develip alongside them to reach their potential. While Ingram was the big fish of the AD trade last summer, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart were also brought in to be key contributors. Lonzo had a great start to the year but had an even worse bubble experience than Zion. (The bubble was not kind to the Pelicans.)
It’s really about how the new guys gel though. Steven Adams is one of my absolute favorite players in the league and will do wonders for Zion on the defensive end by taking a lot of pressure off of him to be an acnhor down there. How much will this team miss Jrue Holiday’s elite perimeter defense? Eric Bledsoe isn’t a slouch on the defensive end by any means, but he’s no Holiday. That drop off might make a huge difference when you consider the types of guards the Pellies will play against in the West.
Breakout Player: Nickeil Alexander Walker
He didn’t get a ton of run last year, but this guy has the potential to be an excellent two-way guard in the league and honestly I think he might have a chance to take over for Lonzo if he struggles to start the year.
Best Bet: Zion Williamson Most Improved Player +2000 (via Oddsshark)
Prediction: 10th in the West
San Antonio Spurs
2019-20 record: 32-39; did not make playoffs
Additions: C Drew Eubanks (three years, $5.2M); G Devin Vassell (first round, 11th pick overall); G Tre Jones (second round, 41st pick overall)
Subtractions: G Bryn Forbes (signed with Milwaukee);F Chimezie Metu (waived); assistant coach Tim Duncan
Retained: C Jakob Poeltl (three years, $26.2M)
Projected Starting Lineup (via RealGM)
What will make them successful?
If the young core outperforms expectations. There are a lot of interesting young pieces on this team that don’t get the same shine as other teams. Murray, White, Walker and Johnson are all young guys who have showed flashes of brilliance with the Spurs. Can they continue that development and turn into a playoff contender?
More importantly, do they show enough to lure in a star next year in free agency to replace DeRozan and Aldrigde? Derozan was brought up in trade talks all summer and I assume he will get moved by the deadline. It doesn’t seem like there’s a place for Aldridge anymore on this team. They should work on moving those two and going all-in on the youth movement.
Biggest Question Mark?
Are their young guys any good? Like yes they are interesting pieces in theory and you want to trust the Spurs infrastructure to churn these guys into reliable NBA players. This team was sniffing around the playoffs last year but ultimately they were outmatched by other teams in the West who have actual elite talent. Can one of these guys develop into a player on the level of a Ja Morant or Devin Booker? We will see.
Breakout Player: Dejounte Murray
The most obvious candidate. If he plays at an all-star level in the loaded west, this will easily be a playoff team. That might not be fair to expect from him, but that is the position he’s currently in with this squad.
Best Bet: Coach of the Year Gregg Poppovich +4000 (via Oddsshark)
Prediction: 12th in the west
In case you missed it: Atlantic Division, Northwest Division
2 Responses
Jake, Great analysis of each of the divisions! I enjoyed your insight and the videos are a great addition. This is great reading! Thanks!