1. Buffalo Bills
Round 1: 25
Round 2: 57
Round 3: 89
Round 4: 130
Round 5: 168
Round 6: 185, 203
Round 7: 231
Josh Allen had a rocky start to last season, but by the end was playing even better football than he was in 2020, when he was MVP runner up. He’s here to stay, and while the roster has undergone some noteworthy changes this offseason, there don’t appear to be any major cap issues. They’ve brought back Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson to shore up the D Line. Adding a Super Bowl MVP in Von Miller could provide the veteran leadership to finally get this franchise over the hump. They have concerns in the secondary, especially at corner, but with the 25th pick, Buffalo can go best available. Losing their OC and assistant GM to the Giants hurts, but promoting QB coach Ken Dorsey to OC should help to smooth the transition as much as possible.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1: 27
Round 2: 60
Round 3: 91
Round 4: 133
Round 5: —
Round 6: —
Round 7: 248, 261
What an off-season it’s been. Brady retired and then unretired. He made Ryan Jensen an offer he couldn’t refuse, and now the center is back for another 3 years. Antonio Brown… happened. HC Bruce Arians also semi-retired. His move to a front office role opened the door for them to quietly promote DC Todd Bowles to HC. Between him and OC Byron Leftwich, the Bucs managed to retain two of the hottest coordinators. In what feels like the next part of the Expendables franchise, Ol’ Tommy is getting the band back together for one last hurrah. He’ll be a free at the end of this year, but he just restructured his contract to free up cap space for the draft. The only thing that man’s ever half assed in his life is retirement. If he’s coming back, best believe he’s coming to play.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1: 29, 30
Round 2: 50, 62
Round 3: 94, 104
Round 4: 121, 135
Round 5: —
Round 6: 191
Round 7: 233, 243, 251, 259
The Chiefs barely missed out on a third straight Super Bowl appearance, but they have now been to four straight AFC championships- every year that Pat Mahomes has been a full time starter. OC Eric Beiniemy was once again overlooked for all 9 head coach openings. They’re starting to face the consequences for Mahomes’s mega contract, and Tyreek Hill was the first major cap casualty. Finding someone to replace his production will be difficult, but there are plenty of candidates. The Chiefs don’t have many glaring weak spots, but there are plenty of areas with room for improvement. With a bevy of picks, including two late firsts, they can go BPA, or potentially trade up. Being in the AFC West, they could miss the playoffs entirely, but if they can make it out of the league’s toughest division, they’re still a threat.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Round 1: 31
Round 2: 63
Round 3: 95
Round 4: 136
Round 5: 174
Round 6: 209
Round 7: 226, 252
The big question is: Is Cincinnati really as good as they finished? They were a four win team a year ago, albeit without Joe Burrow, but they were up and down all season this past year. They have massive issues on the offensive line, and are drafting outside the top 30, thanks to a possibly premature Super Bowl appearance. Joe Burrow is probably still going to get better, but without better protection, this situation feels eerily similar to Andrew Luck’s tenure with the Colts. Even though they made it to the Super Bowl, Burrow was the most sacked QB in the league.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Round 1: 14
Round 2: 45
Round 3: 76, 100
Round 4: 110, 119, 128, 139, 141
Round 5: —
Round 6: 196
Round 7: —
Injuries all but ended Baltimore’s season before it started, but don’t let that fool you. This is a very talented roster, with a Super Bowl winning coach and a former MVP at QB. Now they get to draft in the first half of round 1. They’ll be back with a vengeance.
6. Los Angeles Rams
Round 1: —
Round 2: —
Round 3: 105
Round 4: 142
Round 5: 175
Round 6: 211, 212, 218
Round 7: 238, 253
It feels weird to put the reigning Super Bowl champions this low, but the fact is, this team will look a lot different by the time this season rolls around. Retirement rumors have swirled around both HC Sean McVay and team MVP Aaron Donald. While both are expected to return, these rumors usually start around some ounce of truth. Additionally, the Rams essentially bought themselves a championship. That means a drought of first round picks and expensive, expiring contracts to deal with. S Eric Weddle announced plans to return to retirement, and Von Miller is gone. So is Bobby Trees, although they’ve brought in Allen Robinson to help fill the void left by an injured OBJ. They also brought in perennial pro bowler Bobby Wagner.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1: 17
Round 2: —
Round 3: 79
Round 4: 123
Round 5: 160
Round 6: 195, 214
Round 7: 236, 254, 255, 260
By narrowly missing the playoffs, the Chargers landed themselves the 17th overall pick. Justin Herbert is a budding star, and while there are some great pieces on this team, they don’t quite feel like a Super Bowl roster just yet. The draft should help. They picked up an absolute unit in Khalil Mack, and didn’t even have to give up a first rounder to do it. Even in a brutal division, this team is a major threat.
8. Green Bay Packers
Round 1: 22, 28
Round 2: 53, 59
Round 3: 92
Round 4: 132, 140
Round 5: 171
Round 6: —
Round 7: 228, 249, 258
The annual Aaron Rodgers soap opera ended with a hefty four year contract extension that sent Davante Adams to Vegas. Jordan Love proves an interesting asset now. The longer that the former first round pick rides the bench, the more his trade value decreases, and other teams are unlikely to return his original draft value until he’s proven himself more in games, which is unlikely with #12 locked down. The NFC looks weak, but even with a healthy Jaire Alexander, they probably need another weapon or two to chase a Lombardi.
9. Arizona Cardinals
Round 1: 23
Round 2: 55
Round 3: 87
Round 4: —
Round 5: —
Round 6: 201, 215
Round 7: 244, 256, 257
Is there drama between QB Kyler Murray and the team? That’s no small issue, but both sides seem to deny any friction, while behaving like that couple that pretends their problems don’t exist. They’re a talented roster, and when they’re back healthy again, they should be one of the leading favorites. But they have to win in the locker room first.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Round 1: 24
Round 2: 56
Round 3: 88
Round 4: 129
Round 5: 155, 167, 176, 178
Round 6: 193
Round 7: —
I kind of called this a few years ago when they started handing out those big contracts. Dallas is good, but not quite good enough. We can cut them a bit of slack due to injuries, especially with Dak starting last season already banged up. The problem is, they need more help and don’t really have the means to acquire it. Zeke may already be in decline, the offensive line is no longer the elite force it was five years ago, Amari Cooper is gone, and while the defense has some promising young talent, they’re going to cost money soon. Rumors of friction between players won’t help.
11. New England Patriots
Round 1: 21
Round 2: 54
Round 3: 85
Round 4: 127
Round 5: 158, 170
Round 6: 200, 210
Round 7: —
Somewhere between the “Mac Jones is trash” and “Mac Jones is going to be better than Tom Brady” crowds is a large gray area wherein the truth probably resides. In my eyes, he’s the next Alex Smith, with a ceiling of Matt Ryan. Both guys have led their teams to the playoffs, but they needed help to do it. He’s a guy a team can win WITH, but not necessarily BECAUSE OF. Bill Belicheck will probably stick around to break Don Shula’s records, as that’s pretty much all he has left to chase, but I think it’s very telling that Josh McDaniels, who has been turning down HC offers pretty much every year, finally left New England. That suggests that the Patriots offensive coordinator had so little faith in Mac, he’d rather trust his HC reputation to the chaos and inconsistency of Derek Carr and the Raiders than Mac and the Patriots.
12. Denver Broncos
Round 1: —
Round 2: 64
Round 3: 75, 96
Round 4: 115, 116
Round 5: 152
Round 6: 206
Round 7: 232
Denver had to give up a significant amount to acquire Russell Wilson, but at long last, that post-Elway QB void, which was only briefly plugged by Peyton Manning, is filled. They’re in the toughest division in football, and while they had to part ways with a really good tight end in the trade, they can still hand Wilson arguably the best receiving core in the division. Those six divisional games will be brutal for everyone in the AFC West, but Denver should be able to hold their own with just about anyone else outside of the division, even without a first round pick this year.
13. Tennessee Titans
Round 1: 26
Round 2: —
Round 3: 90
Round 4: 131, 143
Round 5: 169
Round 6: 204, 219
For a few years, I thought Tannehill was enough for Tennessee. With a ridiculously over talented back in Henry, I thought Tannehill could game manage them to a title on a team friendly contract. I’m no longer convinced. They couldn’t win in a flukey year, and got upset at home in the playoffs as a 1 seed, by a team that had 4 wins the year before. Either Julio Jones washed up abruptly, or there’s a much bigger drop off from Matt Ryan to Ryan Tannehill than most of us realized. Either way, this team seems capable of only so much with him at the helm. It may be time to cut their losses. With the 26th overall pick, a project QB might not be a bad idea.
14. San Francisco 49ers
Round 1: —
Round 2: 61
Round 3: 93, 105
Round 4: 134
Round 5: 172
Round 6: 187, 220, 221
Round 7: 262
Time will tell how much Mike McDaniels meant to this team’s success. For the second year in a row, the team was ravaged by injuries. They’re almost out from under Jimmy G’s contract, and they have a young gun waiting in the wings. Kyle Shanahan remains among the most innovative coaches in the league, so this team is always dangerous, as evidenced by nearly making it to the Super Bowl, when they really had no business even winning a playoff game. They don’t have a first round pick, but that’s okay. They need to focus on resigning Deebo Samuel anyway.
15. Minnesota Vikings
Round 1: 12
Round 2: 46
Round 3: 77
Round 4: —
Round 5: 156
Round 6: 184, 191, 192
Round 7: 250
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. The VIkings aren’t winning a chip with Kirk Cousins. He’s a terrific bridge QB, but the purple offense crossed the Rubicon a while ago. They need to upgrade. Kirk is great at making teams close to average. For a talent devoid team, desperate for a leader, and trying to climb out of the gutter, that’s great. For a team almost ready to contend for a Super Bowl, that’s… not great. With the Vikings renewing their commitment to overpaying Cousins, expect them to remain a middle tier team. I don’t expect the 12th overall pick to change that.
16. Indianapolis Colts
Round 1: —
Round 2: 42
Round 3: 73
Round 4: 122
Round 5: 159, 179
Round 6: 216
Round 7: 240
I’ve said for a couple years now that Atlanta needed to blow up their core and the players needed a change of scenery. Matt Ryan winds up as the next band aid QB for a QB whisperer HC. The last time Ryan had a run game this good, he went to the Super Bowl. The AFC is tough, but the AFC South isn’t. New Orleans has 2 first round picks and may or may not desperately need a running back. A trade sending Marlon Mack and change to NOLA in exchange for a mid round first could make a lot of sense for both teams.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1: —
Round 2: —
Round 3: 86
Round 4: 126
Round 5: 164, 165
Round 6: —
Round 7: 227
The Raiders really aren’t that bad of a team, but J.F.C. that division is miserable to be in. Just being in the AFC West probably puts the Raiders about 2-3 games under where they should be. A case could be made that 3 of the top 5 QBs in the NFL play in this division. Maybe even 4 of the top 10. Derek Carr is a solid QB, but he’s clearly the worst starter in the division. That says a lot. So does Josh McDaniels leaving New England to inherit this mess. This division will be must watch TV next season. Unfortunately, even after reuniting Davante Adams with his college QB, that six division game gauntlet will likely limit the Raiders to fringe playoff status.
18. Cleveland Browns
Round 1: —
Round 2: 44
Round 3: 78, 99
Round 4: 118
Round 5: —
Round 6: 202
Round 7: 223, 246
It wasn’t long ago that this past season would have merited a parade. Unfortunately, after ending a long playoff drought last year and getting a taste of post season victory, an 8 win season just doesn’t hit the same anymore. The standard was higher, and now that Cincinnati has not only the best NFL team, but also the best college football team in Ohio, heads are likely going to roll for this. They already lost OBJ. Now Jarvis Landry is out, and they’ve even alienated Baker Mayfield, by breaking open the piggy bank for Deshaun Watson, who will likely be suspended this upcoming season. Luckily, Cleveland can still lay claim to the 9-1 St. Edward Eagles. Ohio’s best high school football team is ranked 26th nationally, and sits just a bit west of Cleveland.
19. Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1: 15, 18
Round 2: 51
Round 3: 83, 101
Round 4: 124
Round 5: 154, 162, 166
Round 6: —
Round 7: 237
As has often been the case for Jalen Hurts, many are questioning whether he can truly be a starting QB. The problems at WR don’t help the young signal caller, and those O-Line stalwarts aren’t getting any younger. The NFC East should once again be among the easiest divisions, but that doesn’t mean the teams are going to roll over. This team has an awful history when it comes to drafting WRs, but they need more firepower.
20. Chicago Bears
Round 1: —
Round 2: 39, 48
Round 3: 71
Round 4: —
Round 5: 148, 150
Round 6: 186
Round 7: —
With former HC Matt Nagy gone, the franchise seems to be in rebuild mode. They shipped off the pricey but talented Khalil Mack for peanuts. This era of dominant Bears D may be ending, but the hope for a great offensive era is still alive. They need to protect Justin Fields and get him help in the draft.
21. New York Giants
Round 1: 5, 7
Round 2: 36
Round 3: 67, 81
Round 4: 112
Round 5: 147, 173
Round 6: 182
Round 7: —
It’s hard to argue that the Giants are a good team, but I don’t think they’re quite as bad as most seem to think. They had a lot of injuries, in addition to having a young core. If they can stay healthy, they should be capable of challenging for a playoff spot, especially considering how weak their division is. A pair of top 7 picks should help tremendously. The new GM just put last year’s first round pick, Kadarius Toney on the trade block. If they can land a good return, their draft class could really skyrocket this team.
22. Washington Commanders
Round 1: 11
Round 2: 47
Round 3: —
Round 4: 113
Round 5: —
Round 6: 189
Round 7: 230, 239
I hate the Wentz trade for them. What does he bring that Taylor Heinicke didn’t already offer them? Seriously, what was the point of that trade? A team that needed to get better is focusing on pulling straws between below average QBs. They also damaged a relationship with Big Baller Beane over a backup running back. They might as well take another QB with the 11th overall pick. Realistically though, they should look for a project QB with their early second round pick and potentially trade the 11th for a pair of later firsts. Perhaps Green Bay or Kansas City?
23. Miami Dolphins
Round 1: —
Round 2: —
Round 3: 102
Round 4: 125
Round 5: —
Round 6: —
Round 7: 224, 247
Mike McDaniels is going to have to be one hell of a HC to justify firing Brian Flores. This whole front office has to be on thin ice. Ironically, they’ll likely have to rely on the QB they’ve been disrespectfully non-committal to for the past two years in order to hang onto their jobs. That won’t be easy in the AFC East, where even the Jets have things to be excited about. There are weapons here for McDaniels, which is good, because they don’t have a draft pick inside the top 100.
24. Carolina Panthers
Round 1: 6
Round 2: —
Round 3: —
Round 4: 108
Round 5: 144, 149
Round 6: 199
Round 7: 242
It’s time to trade CMC. The guy is officially injury prone, and the team is so far away from being a true contender that he won’t be a strong contributor if and when they get there. At this point, they still at least have a chance to pick up a late first rounder, although they’ll probably have to send a pick along with CMC to get it done. They even lost the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes to an AFC team. With the 6th overall pick at their disposal, QB has to be a consideration.
25. Seattle Seahawks
Round 1: 9
Round 2: 40, 41
Round 3: 72
Round 4: 109
Round 5: 145, 153
Round 6: —
Round 7: 229
The Wilson trade feels a lot like the Jack Eichel trade. It’s hard to balance a trade involving only one super star player, but the trade was about as fair as it could be. It’s lopsided against Seattle as it stands, because a strong TE like Noah Fant doesn’t do much without a good QB. I’m not ready to give up on Drew Lock completely yet, but it’s pretty clear that the odds of him blossoming into a franchise star are dwindling. If those guys pan out, Seattle can absolutely come out ahead here, but otherwise, Denver probably wins this trade. Still Seattle got some nice draft capital, which helps balance the books after the Jamal Adams trade. They now hold Denver’s 9th overall pick, while the Jets have their 10th.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Round 1: 8
Round 2: 43, 58
Round 3: 74, 82
Round 4: 114
Round 5: 151
Round 6: 190, 213
Round 7: —
These guys just can’t catch a break. Kyle Pitts seems to be the phenomenal talent he was hyped up to be coming out of the draft, but now Calvin Ridley is suspended through the entire upcoming season for gambling on games. It may seem harsh, even hypocritical, coming from a league that has made an active effort to partner up with sports books, but when we think back on how the MLB handled Pete Rose, it’s not entirely unprecedented. The only thing worse than being the team that lands Deshaun Watson, is being the team that tried to, failed, and now lost their franchise QB. On the bright side, AJ Terrell is one of the best young corners in the game. Sitting 8th overall, I don’t see how this team can justify not finding a QB to take over for Marcus Mariota at some point.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1: 1
Round 2: 33
Round 3: 65, 70
Round 4: 106
Round 5: 157
Round 6: 180, 188, 197 198
Round 7: 222, 235
What a sh!tshow this past season was. Urban Meyer was more than just a bad hire. He was an all time disaster. Trevor Lawrence struggled to develop under shaky leadership, James Robinson was benched for no good reason, and first round pick Travis Etienne was out for the year before the season even started. But the team can now put all of that behind them. It’s time to turn over a new leaf and start fresh. The Titans and Colts have limitations, and Houston will likely still be a tire fire, so there is room to compete in the division. With the first overall pick, the Jags should strongly consider trading back for multiple firsts. They already have their young QB, so no one single player in this draft is going to save this franchise alone.
28. Detroit Lions
Round 1: 2, 32
Round 2: 34
Round 3: 66, 97
Round 4: —
Round 5: 177
Round 6: 181, 217
Round 7: 234
I think it was actually a good year for the Lions. Remember that expectations were depressingly low to start the year. They earned the second overall pick, yet they managed to be competitive with some really good teams. This team plays hard for Dan Campbell, and with the extra draft picks they picked up in the Stafford trade, they should be able to bolster positions of need. They already have a strong RB, a great TE, one of the best young OL in the league, and let’s not forget sophomore CB Jeff Okudah, the former 3rd overall pick who missed most of his rookie year due to injury. Detroit has the 2nd, 32nd, and 34th overall picks. Since the only team ahead of them is the Jags, who already took a QB last year, Detroit can take any QB they want at 2, then get two immediate BPA starters.
29. Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1: 20
Round 2: 52
Round 3: 84
Round 4: 138
Round 5: —
Round 6: 208
Round 7: 225, 241
Suddenly, Pittsburgh has the worst QB room in the division. The AFC North is a top 3 division in the NFL, and the Steelers are primed to be the fourth best team in it. It’s a major knock on the front office that even though most people could see Big Ben’s retirement coming from a mile away, the Steelers had no clear succession plan in place. The death of Dwayne Haskins makes things even more grim. Even the Packers invested In Jordan Love, just on the worry that Rodgers might leave someday. The Steelers took their time, and are now locked into Mitch Trubisky. We’ll see what this roster looks like after training camp and the addition of the 20th overall pick.
30. New York Jets
Round 1: 4, 10
Round 2: 35, 38
Round 3: 69
Round 4: 111, 117
Round 5: 146, 163
Round 6: —
Round 7: —
Of all the QBs who’ve been compared to Josh Allen, Zach Wilson may be the closest. The guy may not have Allen’s superhuman strength, but he still has arguably a top five strongest arm in the league, and he can move well for a QB. He makes mistakes, but the raw physical ability is there. There’s a talented young core around him, so hopefully they can grow together. They pick four times in the top 40, and two of them are top 10, including the #4 overall. They probably won’t make much noise yet, but there’s at least plenty to get excited about.
31. Houston Texans
Round 1: 3, 13
Round 2: 37
Round 3: 68, 80
Round 4: 107, 137
Round 5: —
Round 6: 183, 205, 207
Round 7: 245
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen any sort of competency from the Houston front office. They absolutely fleeced the Browns, acquiring five draft picks, including three firsts, in return for a PR nightmare QB who never saw the field last season, and will likely miss time this year as well. They need help pretty much everywhere, so they should just take BPA at #3, #13, and #37, and call it a day during the draft.
32. New Orleans Saints
Round 1: 16, 19
Round 2: 49
Round 3: 98
Round 4: 120
Round 5: 161
Round 6: 194
Round 7: —
The Saints are an absolute mess right now. Last year they lost Brees to retirement. It stung, but it was coming. This year, Sean Payton retired. It was another big blow, but still manageable. Then their best player, Alvin Kamara, got himself in legal trouble in Vegas that puts his future in jeopardy. They may want to send a first to Indy for Marlon Mack and change. Volatile QB Jameis Winston missed much of the season with an injury, so it’s tough to say exactly what he’ll look like this year. They also had a record number of players forced into starting roles due to all of their injuries. And the coup de gras? They’re in cap hell.
One Response