Finally, we made it. NFL free agency am I right? Starting today at noon, NFL GM’s and Agents will scramble to sign electrifying, gritty, and sometimes over the hill talent to sell to their fan base as a step forward in the franchise. Some teams will pull all the punches, and sign big name free agents. Some teams that have struggled may elect to build through the draft.
Some teams, like the Buffalo Bills, it seems lack the cap space to be able to make any moves. This is not completely accurate. The Bills lack the cap room to be able to make splashy moves. I do expect Brandon Beane to do Brandon Beane things, and bring in smart, dedicated, and impact players, even if their names aren’t recognizable amongst every fan.
It’s crucial to realize how important of a year this is for the Bills. They currently sit more than $17.5 over the NFL salary cap. This is the same team that has yet to go to the Super Bowl with Josh Allen at the helm. Allen has in fact only yet to compete in one AFC Championship game, not to his own fault. This makes it evermore important to fill our roster with more talent than in previous years, however these financial constraints will make it more difficult than in years past. Beane will have to find players that are undervalued such as Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde were before becoming one of the best safety duo’s in the NFL. Poyer was signed in 2017 to a 4-year contract worth $13 million. Hyde was signed the same day, March 9th 2017, to a 5-year deal worth $30.5 million.
These examples are meant to resonate with fans and inspire hope. The Buffalo Bills are almost surely about to lose players such as Tremaine Edmunds, and Jordan Poyer. They will however, most likely restructure Josh Allen’s contract to save $21.5 million, as well as Von Miller’s contract to save $11 million. They have options like cutting Isaiah McKenzie who carries a $2.51 million cap hit against a $300 thousand dead cap penalty.
These are examples of course of what can be done, not guarantees of what will be done. Because of the current financial constraints, I put together a list of free agents that the Bills could pursue without breaking the bank. None of these free agents are at the top of their positions, and none will be setting recording breaking contracts on March 13th. These players could contribute to the depth of a certain position in need, or they could fill starting roles in positions that the Bills struggle in.
In order to find positional need, I looked at both where the Bills struggled statistically, and also what voids will need to be filled by players being lost in free agency. It’s worth noting that for some positions, such as safety and inside linebacker, I tried to limit comparing the players that started in those positions last year to the possible value added free agents listed. It would be unfair to compare the second best free agent safety, or top five linebacker to an up and coming player who hasn’t earned their shot at the big payday yet.
Now lets talk about the statistics that I looked at. First, I looked at our receivers. It’s important to remember that this is an article about free agency, and I didn’t factor in any draft picks as there are almost certain to be many at these positions. The Bills finished the regular season tied at 29 dropped passes with Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville. This was 2nd worst in the league. As far as receptions within the redzone, the Bills were better, but not good enough. They ranked 8th in this category with 44. They ranked 10th on receptions within the opponent 10 yard line with 17. They tied with the Bengals in this category. The Bills tried to improve in yards after catch last season. They ended up 26th in the league with 1,577 total yards after catch. In my opinion this all adds up to Adds up to needing speed, and sure hands. Someone who can bail out Josh in the red zone. Someone reliable.
Next, I investigated the turnover differential. The Bills finished right around the middle of the league with +0 (thanks to the defense). The defense tied for 4th in the NFL with 17 interceptions, and tied for 10th in the league in fumble recoveries with 10. The Bills offensive interceptions weren’t terrible. They finished 12th giving up 14 picks, but finished with the 2nd most fumbles lost at 13.
I figured this must’ve been a problem with the line. Yes and no. Whereas the Bills had many offensive line issues, and Josh bailed them out plenty, they ranked pretty high in the league in pass blocking. They has a team block win rate of 67% which was good enough for 4th in the NFL. Josh had a pocket time of 2.5 seconds to throw the ball (yes, I know he scrambles), however I counted 25 NFL QB’s (over 100 attempts to qualify) that ended the season averaging less pocket time. Josh was also blitzed 144 times (9th in the NFL). He was hurried 41 times (7th) and knocked down 43 times (tied for 12th).
What did I take away from all of this data? The line may not have been the worst in the NFL, but they need to get better in order to give Josh more time to throw from the pocket.
It’s also worth noting that the o- line had a run block win rate of 71% which ranked 22nd in the league. Also, defensively the Bills held on 3rd down allowing 37.9% of the attempts. This ranked 9th which is good, but not great.
Using the information that I collected, I put together a list of six positions of need, and the players who may be able to leave their mark on this team. Let’s get started.
Slot Reciever:
Randall Cobb, Packers:
Cobb had a decent season last year. All and all he finished with 34 receptions and 417 yards, adding just 1 touchdown. The slot receiver stands at 5’10” and weighs in at 192 pounds. Cobb racked up two nice games this year, but never toppled 100 yards receiving in a single game. In week 7 against the Titans Cobb went for 73 yards on 6 catches. In week 9 against the playoff destined Giants, he finished with 7 catches for 99 yards.
Pros:
12 years’ experience and still productive.
Can still return kicks and punts if needed. Hasn’t been a consistent return man since 2012.
5.4 yards after catch per reception. Comparison: McKenzie finished with 3.0 in this category.
4% drop rate. Shakir finished at 10%, and McKenzie at 9.2%.
Cons:
Age is the most obvious. He’ll be 33 by the start of the season.
Missed 5 regular season games 2021 core injury. Missed 4 regular season games in 2022 with an ankle injury.
Rumored to want to follow Aaron Rodgers if he leaves.
Greg Dortch, Cardinals:
Dortch turns 25 on May 29th making him a great young option. He only started in 4 games, but appeared in 16 racking up 467 yards on 52 receptions and 2 touchdowns. In a game against the power house San Francisco defense, Dortch amassed 9 catches and 103 receiving yards. Dortch is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent meaning the Cardinals would have to decide not to tender him a contract in order to become an unrestricted free agent. He was cut 5 times by 4 teams before finding a home in Arizona.
Pros:
Can return kicks and punts.
He’s a quick slot receiver.
5.6 yards after catch per reception.
0 drops on the season.
Passer rating when targeted was 107.5%
Cons:
May lack vertical speed.
Only 3 broken tackles.
He’s not big at 5’7’’ 175lb.
Richie James Giants:
Daboll/Schoen
27 years old
7th rounder 2018
Richie comes from the Giants where he has a really nice season. Under the Daboll/ Schoen regime he went for 57 receptions, and 569 yards. He’s 27 years young, and a former 7th rounder in 2018.
Pros:
- Good vertical speed.
- Can return punts and kicks. He had a kick return TD in 2018.
- 29 first down receptions.
- Drop rate of only 4.3%.
Cons:
Smaller frame at 5’9’’, 185 pounds.
3.1 yards after catch per reception.
He did have 3 drops.
Guard:
Powers or Risner would be nice, but the Bills have never gone too crazy on spending money for long term guards. It would be surprising now with cap concerns.
David Edwards, Rams:
It’s hard to gauge what the market will be on the former 5th rounder from Wisconsin. He’s had a great start to his career, along with some worry about head injuries.
Pros:
Right tackle in college (can play multiple positions).
Athletic and came into college as a tight end.
Started Super Bowl LVI for the Rams.
6’6’’ big body.
- 8 holding, 4 false starts in 45 games. Bills had 22 holding, 18 false starts last season as a team.
Cons:
Concussion history (Missed most of 2022).
Justin Pugh Cardinals:
Pugh will start the season at 34 years old. This would be more of a stop gap, throw some tape on it move. Pugh has started at guard and tackle, and is versatile.
Pros:
6’5’’ 315 lb big body.
10 years’ experience
Spotrac market value at $5.5M annually.
Former 1st round pick out of Syracuse.
Cons:
How much time left?
Injury prone. Only has 3 full seasons.
Right OT to compete with Brown
Terrence Steele Cowboys:
Pros:
6’6’’ 320-pound big body.
Undrafted FA who started 40 of 45 career games.
Only 1 holding in 13 GS last season.
Cons
5 false starts in 13 GS last season.
Suffered a torn ACL & MCL at the end of last season.
Restricted Free agent. He would cost bills a 2nd round pick.
Safety (SS/FS):
This is my plug again to see Christian Benford moved to free safety. HE finished the season with 5 starts, allowing only 60.7% completion percentage. Both Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer started their careers at cornerback before transitioning to safeties.
Adrian Amos Packers:
Amos is a terrific safety who’s getting a little older in age as he turns 30 in April. He still has some good years left and would cost less than Poyer. His Spotrac market value is estimated to be at about $6.8 million annually. Amos starter all 17 games last season for the Packers. He pulled down just one interception with 5 passes defended but racked up 102 tackle including 7 for loss. He also tacked on one fumble recovery and a sack. Amos is 6’0” and weighs in at 215 pounds. That’s not bad for a player who ran a sub 4.4 40 at the combine.
Pros:
Great in the run game.
3.8% missed tackle rate (4 missed on 102 tackles).
10 blitzes resulted in 4 pressure, 2 QB knockdowns, 1 sack, and one hurry.
Cons:
70% completion percentage when targeted.
107.7% passer rating when targeted.
Rodney McLeod Colts:
McLeod is older, there’s no sugar coting that. Even so, the Bills staff may find him to still have something left in the tank. The 5’10” safety turns 33 in June, and was undrafted entering the league in 2012. He may have only started 15 of 17 games last season, but other than those two games, he started every regular season game since his second season in the league. McLeod was still very productive tallying 96 tackles, 2 interceptions, 8 passes defended, a fumble recovery, and a defensive touchdown last season.
Pros:
6 missed tackles for a 5.9% missed tackle percentage.
Spotrac.com market value $1.7M per year.
Even with an off year in the pass game last season, he’s well rounded in run and pass game.
Cons:
Allowed 5 receiving TD last season.
98.6% passer rating when targeted last season.
Not great when blitzing as a safety.
Marcus Epps, Eagles:
Bills fans would love this player. He’s big at 6’0” and 200 pounds. He started all 17 regular season games in 2022 for the Super Bowl runner up Philadelphia Eagles. He can lay some big hits. He finished the season with 94 tackles and 6 passes defended.
Pros:
He just turned 27.
6 tackles in the SB.
Cons:
Not great in the pass game. Gave up 12.4 yards per completion. Allowed 6 receiving TD. Opposing QB’s had a 139.1% rating when targeting him.
ILB:
Alex Singleton, Broncos:
The 29-year-old linebacker shares a lot of qualities with Tremaine Edmunds. He’s big, 6’2” 240 pounds big. Usually, linebackers of that size aren’t also fast. Singleton runs a 4.6 40-yard dash. Also, him and Edmunds were both 1st round picks (Singleton in the CFL). He started 12 of 17 games on Denver’s defense last year.
Pros:
4.1% missed tackle rate.
Cons:
- Not sure of his price tag.
- Not great in the pass game.
Kyzir White, Eagles:
White is all over the field and could be a guy you sign to a lengthier deal. He turns 24 at the end of March and hopefully has plenty of playing time left. He only started 8 games for Philly, but turned in 110 tackles, 7 passes defensed, and 1.5 sacks. He also added 4 tackles in the Super Bowl.
Pros:
Only allowed 64.6% completion percentage.
Only allowed 4.4 yards per target and opposing QBs only had 74.4% passer ratings when targeting him.
4.3% missed tackle percentage.
Cons:
- Not a bad blitzer but could improve. 1.5 sack, 1 QB knockdown, 3 pressures on 20 blitzes.
Backup TE:
Foster Moreau, Raiders:
Foster may be in line for a big contract, but there are a few other options at tight end so it’s unknown. If the Bills can get him cheap, he’s worth it. The 6’4” tight end is only about to turn 26. He has 4.65 speed and averaged 7.2 yards after catch per reception. The only downside was his 6 dropped passes.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals:
Hurst will turn 30 in August and like Moreau is worth it if the Bills were to get him at the right price. He’s a season veteran who broke out last season getting 68 targets. Of those 68 targets, he dropped only two passes. Hurst’s downside is his low yards after catch at 3.7-yard average per reception.
Thank you for sticking with me, and spending some of your time reading my thoughts on the Bills and the possible free agent options available to them. Until next time, GO BILLS!
Sources:
Spotrac.com
ESPN.com
Democratandchronicle.com
NBCsports.com
pro-football-refence.com
NFLpenalties.com