The NL East is as wide open as ever, but the New York Mets seems to be drawing the most attention from fans around the league.
The attention is warranted, however the Mets will be playing in arguably the most competitive division in baseball. For example, the “weakest” team in the division, the Miami Marlins, made the playoffs in 2020 after being considered one of the worst teams in the MLB and will look to build on that with their prospect laden roster. Plus you have Bryce Harper’s Philadelphia Phillies, Juan Soto’s Washington Nationals, and Ronald Acuna Jr.’s Atlanta Braves.
Let’s see who is most poised to win the shootout within the NL Wild, Wild East:
Atlanta Braves (35-25)
The Braves won the NL East by 4.0 games in 2020 as they were the only team in the division to post an above .500 record at home and on the road. Freddie Freeman earned himself NL MVP honors, but the team eventually ran out of steam against the Los Angeles Dodgers just one game win shy of reaching the World Series. Injuries piled up for the Braves, especially within the rotation, which led to their demise.
Mike Soroka only lasted three starts in the COVID-shortened 2020 season before needing surgery on his right achilles tendon. In 2019, Soroka was 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA, earning himself an All-Star appearance and a sixth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. The 23-year-old righty pitched two innings in the Braves’ last Spring Training game and hopes to join the rotation over the next month or two.
Soroka’s absence allowed Max Fried’s skills to be showcased, but it was not just Fried who stepped up in Soroka’s stead. Rookie Ian Anderson made his MLB debut in 2020 posting a 3-2 record and a 1.96 ERA during the regular season. Skipper Brian Snitker made his confidence in Anderson known as he gave the 22-year-old three postseason starts, including a decisive game in the NLCS.
The Braves have added veterans Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton to the rotation during the offseason. “It could be one of those rotations where five guys are just trading hands, competing with each other. That’s where it’s the most fun,” Soroka said after his Spring Training debut.
Most of the Braves’ everyday positional lineup returns in 2020 as the team re-signed Marcell Ozuna after a .338 campaign that included 56 RBI. Freeman should continue his stellar level of performance with the hitters that will still surround him in the lineup; Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Travis d’Arnaud to name a few.
The lineup may get a charge from a few youngsters who seem poised to breakout in the majors. Cristian Pache, the Braves’ highest-rated prospect, has earned the starting spot in centerfield at just 20 years of age. The youngster struggled a bit at the plate in Spring as he hit just .184, but his speed and athleticism offers a ton of help defensively and on the base paths. Expect Pache to take some time to get acclimated in the batter’s box after playing only 26 games at the AAA level, however his .283 career batting average in the minors shows solid upside at the plate.
Miami Marlins (31-29)
There is no doubt about it that the Marlins’ performance in 2020 was the biggest surprise of the season. Hit early with a COVID-19 outbreak, the Marlins were counted out. They were an afterthought. Bottom feeders.
That did nothing, but fuel the Marlins en route to a playoff appearance that included a 2-0 sweep of the Chicago Cubs. Manager Don Mattingly won NL Manager of the Year. Brian Anderson led all NL East third basemen in WAR while posting 11 home runs and 38 RBI which would be career-highs over a regular 162-game schedule. While pitcher Sandy Alcantara recorded his best career numbers in 2020 as well with a 3.00 ERA over seven starts.
Alcantara will get the start on Opening Day with Pablo Lopez going for the second game. The Marlins will likely go with just four starters to begin the season like many other teams as there are more early rest days mixed in. Elieser Hernandez and youngster Trevor Rogers will be the other starters in the rotation to begin the season. The 23-year-old Rogers went 3-0 in the Spring with a 2.84 ERA and 13.9 SO/9 in 19 IP.
From there, it is likely that prospect Sixto Sanchez will be the fifth starter. The 22-year-old’s start to spring was delayed and it kept him to just three Spring Training appearances. Sanchez, MLB Pipeline’s No. 15 overall prospect, will likely be optioned to the club’s alternate location to continue to ramp up in preparation to join the roster.
Second base prospect Isan Diaz disappointed in Spring after going just 2-for-34 at the plate. That means youngster Jazz Chisholm will earn the role of everyday starter. Chisholm struggled early in Spring, but found his swing down the stretch. Many people feel Chisholm could be the long-term solution at shortstop, but he will begin his Marlins career on the other side of the diamond.
The addition of Starling Marte to the outfield last season was a great move as they added a guy who is a legitimate .300 and 20 home run threat while adding leadership to a young roster. As Marte mans centerfield, it looks like former Brave Adam Duvall will step into the starting right field position. Duvall was a solid platoon player for Atlanta the past two seasons. Left field will be Corey Dickerson’s spot again this year as he tries to regain his .300-form after hitting just .258 in 2020.
New York Mets (26-34)
All eyes are on the Mets after new owner Steve Cohen has made splashes with his deep pockets. Most notably the trade for All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and ensuing 10-year $341 million deal. Can the Mets supplant themselves atop the NL East after being the divisional team with the least wins in 2020?
If you just looked at their rotation, then the answer is a resounding “YES!” Jacob deGrom will get things started on Opening Day, then the Mets will get back the services of Marcus Stroman who held out after dealing with some early injury issues in 2020. The Stro Show has been hard at work perfecting his craft. The 29-year-old native Long Islander has been developing different changeups as well as infusing timing stymying movement in his windups.
The Mets added veterans Carlos Carrassco and Taijuan Walker to the rotation as well. David Peterson will take up the last spot after a 6-2 debut in 2020 over nine starts and 10 appearances. The young lefty offers moderate upside as a top-half of the rotation guy and hopefully can balance out his strike to walk ratio.
New York has added some solid names in the bullpen, however many of those names have been injury riddled over the past few years. Closer Edwin Diaz looked much better in 2020 than his first year in Queens, but lacked the opportunity to amass saves due to poor team performance. Delin Betances, Trevor May, and Jeurys Familia bring more name recognition as fans hope they can keep the team in games.
The middle infield will be very good for New York as they’ll pair up Jeff McNeil with recently acquired Lindor. McNeil ascended to All-Star status in 2019 and continued to hit over .300 in 2020. He should be able to rack up a ton of runs scored with Lindor, Micheal Conforto, and Pete Alonso behind him in the lineup.
Third base looks to be the biggest question mark in the Mets lineup as J.D. Davis is slotted to be the starter. Davis hit just .216 in Spring and .247 in 2020 following up a breakout .307 2019 season. If Davis finds his form, then this can be a dangerous lineup top to bottom, but it may face some tough interdivisional matchups due to the amount of lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies (28-32)
Philadelphia underperformed in 2020. There is no way of sugar coating that to Phillies fans as they will agree wholeheartedly, but Vegas seems to think that trend may continue as their win total sits at 81.5.
The Phillies went out and made splash signings over the past few seasons including Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Didi Gregorious. That recipe has yet to work for Philadelphia, but a few youngsters may be the infusion the team needed.
Third baseman Alec Bohm blasted onto the MLB season in 2020 slashing .338/.400/.481 across 44 games. The former 3rd overall pick continued that this Spring with an average above .300. Many people see Bohm as the #1 contender for NL Rookie of the Year.
There will be question marks in the back half of the rotation as the team signed Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to fill those slots. Moore did not pitch in 2020 while Anderson stunk things up for the Toronto Blue Jays with a 7.22 ERA. The team would like Spencer Howard to takeover one of those spots, but he was not included on the Opening Day roster. Howard will be on an innings count in 2021, so the team prefers to have him in September than April.
The Phillies will need their pitching to be stellar as their defense has been lackadaisical. It might be the main reason for their lack of success. Realmuto is probably the only plus defensive player on the team and the Phillies’ bats have not been enough to overcome that. You would expect guys like Andrew McCutchen and Harper to step up, but the team has continued to miss the mark.
Rhys Hoskins has plateaued in development and some of the veterans seems to be regressing. This will be a ‘make or break‘ year for the Phillies.
Washington Nationals (26-34)
Juan Soto’s COVID diagnosis derailed the Nationals season before it left the tracks. The team clawed to within earshot of .500, but could not get enough late season push.
The 2019 World Series Champs have made some interesting additions in their hopes of getting back to the top of the mountain. The team acquired Josh Bell for pennies on the dollar as he regained form in Spring hitting over .380 with six dingers. Bell will slot into the first base position as Kyle Schwarber will man right field. Schwarber has struggled to find consistency at the plate, but offers a ton of power with a career-high of 38 home runs in 2019.
That should take a lot of pressure off of Soto at the plate. At just 22 years of age, Soto has a career slash line of .295/.415/.557 with 69 home runs and 217 RBI. There is no way to deny that Soto has grown into a superstar and can put up an MVP caliber season. That might be what the Nats need to get their team back to the promised land.
The rotation for the Nationals remains very solid as it is headlined by the three-headed Hydra of Max Scherzer, Steven Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. It remains one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the entire league. When the three are clicking, they can carry the Nationals which they did in 2019.
Veteran Jon Lester was added to be the fourth starter as Joe Ross looks to slot into the last spot. There are worse options out there, so Nats fans cannot complain about their rotation.
The bullpen will need to step up to help the rotation out a bit more. It looks like Brad Hand will likely handle closer responsibilities to begin 2020. He is a solid left-handed veteran with some good movement. Daniel Hudson and Will Harris may get an opportunity to close now and then as well.
Free Money
If you are looking to bet on the NL East winner, then you have to put your money on the Atlanta Braves. Getting them at +120 is an absolute steal as they are a legitimate World Series threat. The Braves boast arguably the best rotation from top-to-bottom and have the bats to win them games. Freeman and Acuna Jr. are poised to have huge seasons again.
I would completely stay away from the Mets at +140, but the Phillies at +875 might be worth a dabble. It would take a lot to go right for Philadelphia to win the division, but it is entirely possible and they have the talent to do it.