BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Yesterday I gave my predictions for each Sweet Sixteen game, and we are doing the same with today’s slate! I will break down each match-up and give you my predictions for who I think advances to the Elite Eight!
Sunday’s Games (West and East Region)
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 5 Creighton
Gonzaga was the overwhelming favorite to win the championship, and it has not shown us any reason why that isn’t still the case. The Bulldogs cruised to two easy victories to start the tournament winning by 43 and 16 points. Part of what makes Gonzaga so successful is its balance. Gonzaga has without question the best starting five in college basketball (Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi, Andrew Nembhard, Drew Timme), and these five play as a team. They remind me of the 2000s San Antonio Spurs as everyone is willing to make the extra pass, make open shots, and play as a team not only on the offensive end but also on the defensive end. Gonzaga is elite in all areas that matter and has won every single game by double digits except one this year. The Bulldogs are an unstoppable force.
Creighton has beaten a No. 12 and No. 13 seed on its road to the Sweet Sixteen. The Blue Jays have shot the ball well from the floor (45% in each game) but have been out-rebounded in both contests. The reason Creighton has gotten to this round has not been because of its offense but rather its defense. Creighton has held both its opponents to under 39% from the field and under 25% from 3 point range and has forced 23 turnovers.
This game is easy for me. Gonzaga is, without question, the best team in the country, and although Creighton has been great defensively so far, the Blue Jays are facing a much bigger challenge. Gonzaga has the most balanced and best offense in the country, and I don’t expect the Bulldogs to be stopped today.
Prediction: Gonzaga 88 Creighton 64
No. 4 Florida State vs No. 1 Michigan
Much like Villanova, Michigan has once again shown the world that we should not overreact to injuries. Despite losing Isaiah Livers, Michigan has looked as good as it did in the regular season and is trying to make a final four run. The Wolverines offense has not slowed down as they are averaging 84 points a game and shooting 51% so far in the tournament. In the two tournament games, Michigan has had six different players score in double digits and have a ridiculous 41 assists as a team. One of the driving forces has been guard Eli Brooks who has stepped up in a big way after the Livers injury. Brooks is averaging 16 points, 5 boards, and 6 assists so far in the tournament, almost double his season averages.
Florida State’s defense has been exceptional so far this tournament. The Seminoles have held their opponents to 53.5 points a game and just 34% shooting. On the other hand, Florida State has shot better than 50% from the floor in both games despite only 6-26 from three-point range, an area it usually excels in. If the Seminoles start to get hot from three again, watch out!
Florida State’s size has been a huge advantage for it in the tournament and once again will have a big advantage against the smaller Michigan guards. This was the hardest game of the day for me to pick as I think both teams have the final four talent, but I will give Florida State the slight advantage here. Its size and ability to force turnovers should cause enough trouble for the Michigan guards to dictate the game’s pace again.
Prediction: Florida State 72 Michigan 70
No. 11 UCLA vs No. 2 Alabama
Bill Walton was right.
The conference of champions has done nothing but impress so far this tournament, and UCLA has not been an exception. The Bruins have won three games so far (including the play in-game) and have seemed to get better in each one. After a crazy comeback over Michigan State in overtime, UCLA has relied on its defense to get big wins over BYU and Abilene Christian in the tournament. UCLA convincingly won both games by not allowing any perimeter shots (7-36 from 3) and forcing its opponents into mistakes (19 turnovers). On the offensive end, UCLA has done what it has done best all year. The Bruins play at a very slow pace (337th in the NCAA) and wait to shoot until it’s a good look. UCLA has shot 46% or better in all three games this tournament.
Alabama plays at the exact opposite pace as UCLA. The Crimson Tide pushes the pace at all times and will shoot at will, especially when they are hot. Alabama is a threat to score 100 on any given night and can shoot the three-point shot as well as anyone in the country. Alabama has already made 21 three pointers this tournament and shows no signs of slowing down. However, the most impressive stat to me by Alabama has been its rebounding. In the first two games, Alabama has out-rebounded its opponents by an absurd margin of 82 to 45. That is THIRTY SEVEN REBOUNDS. It’s also worth mentioning that Alabama has the third-best rated defense in the entire country. This team is incredible, and if it gets hot, Alabama can beat anyone in the country.
Prediction: Alabama 76 UCLA 62
No. 7 Oregon vs No. 6 USC
The battle of the Pac-12 will be our final match-up of the sweet sixteen and could possibly be the best one. Oregon and USC played once already this year, with USC winning by a score of 72-58. However, this is the tournament, and everything from the past no longer matters. Oregon and USC both looked dominant in their most recent games, with Oregon demolishing Iowa and USC destroying Kansas.
USC has been lead by the future lottery pick, Evan Mobley. Mobley has a double-double in both games this tournament and has been a force on offense and defense. He has been a joy to watch and should be able to dominate the paint vs. Oregon. Besides Mobley’s play, USC has incredible as a team shooting the ball. The Trojans have shot over 50% in both games so far, including 57% vs. Kansas, where they shot 61% from three-point range.
The Ducks may have only played one game, but they made a statement. Oregon dismantled the No. 2 seed Iowa and scored 95 points against them. The guard trio of Chris Duarte, Will Richardson, and LJ Figueroa combined for 63 points, 15 assists, 16 rebounds, and 9 made three pointers. The Ducks were unstoppable!
I’ve been back and forth on this game all day. Part of me wants to take USC because of the size and rebounding advantage, but another part of me wants to take Oregon with its elite guard play on both sides of the floor. This was by far the toughest pick of the weekend.
Prediciton: Oregon 71 USC 70
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