Folks!! For the first time since 2017, March Madness has made its way to Buffalo.
We have four intriguing matchups coming to the KeyBank Center on Thursday and two more in the Round of 32 on Saturday. One thing that pops out to me looking at all these teams is offense. Two of the top four scoring offenses will be taking the court as both South Dakota State and Iowa average over 83 points/game. That is not all of the offense though. Arkansas, UConn, Providence, and Vermont all rank 44th or better in Offensive Efficiency. That leaves two more teams – Richmond and New Mexico State – both teams average 71 points/game, which is above the national average.
It looks to be a fun weekend in Buffalo (I mean, it is St. Patrick’s Day on Thursday, after all). The first afternoon game will tip-off at 12:40 pm and the second will tip 30 minutes after the final buzzer of the first game. A likely two-hour break will split the four games in half leading up to a 6:50 pm tip for first evening game. Don’t expect to leave the arena before 11 pm.
Here are the first four games we will see in Buffalo on Thursday:
(4) Providence Friars vs. (13) South Dakota State
(5) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (12) Richmond Spiders
(5) UConn Huskies vs. (12) New Mexico State
(4) Arkansas Razorbacks vs. (13) Vermont Catamounts
And here is a little breakdown of each team we will see:
(4) Iowa Hawkeyes (26 – 9)
AP: 16, NET: 14, KenPom: 13
Last NCAA Appearance: 2021
The Hawkeyes have come alive as of late. Since February began, this team is 12 – 2 and have averaged 85.3 points/game during that span. Iowa has proven they can win the big game against top competition as they won the Big Ten Tournament on Sunday.
Sophomore forward Keegan Murray had made a very strong case to be towards the top of everyone’s National Player of the Year list. Murray averages 23.6 points/game and 8.6 rebounds/game, which both lead Iowa. His twin brother, Kris, isn’t bad himself averaging nearly 10 points and 4.2 boards/game.
Iowa hasn’t made the Sweet Sixteen since 1999. I think that could change in 2022.
(5) UConn Huskies (23 – 9)
AP: 21, NET 17, KenPom: 18
Last NCAA Appearance: 2021
After spending seven seasons in the American, head coach Dan Hurley did everything he could with UConn’s AD to get back into the Big East. In their first two years of returning to the Big East they have made two NCAA Tournaments and are primed and ready to make a classic Connecticut run in March.
UConn’s big three of Adama Sanogo, RJ Cole, and Tyrese Martin are capable of taking this team to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond. The three of them combined average a total of 44.3 points, 20 rebounds, and Sanogo, himself, swats two shots away per game.
The Huskies have the tools to go 2 – 0 in Buffalo and make their first Sweet Sixteen since winning the National Championship in 2014, which ironically started in Buffalo.
(4) Arkansas Razorbacks (25 – 8)
AP: 17, NET: 20, KenPom: 20
Last NCAA Appearance: 2021
The Hogs’ head coach Eric Musselman is one of the most electric coaches in the nation. When Arkansas defeated then-No. 1 Auburn in Fayetteville, a shirtless Musselman was in the sea of students that had stormed the court, even though Musselman had just come off of surgery from a torn rotator cuff and was in a sling.
Enough about the coach, Arkansas has one of the SEC’s top scorers in JD Notae. The senior guard averages around 18 points/game and leads the Razorbacks with nearly 4 assists. Notae has the ability to carry Arkansas at any point. In their wins over Auburn and Kentucky this season, JD scored 28 and 30 points.
Last year, Arkansas went to their first Elite Eight since 1995 but lost to eventual champions Baylor. This March, Musselman and Co. are going to have to get by a pesky Vermont team in the first round before advancing out of Buffalo.
(4) Providence Friars (25 – 5)
AP: 13, NET: 32, KenPom: 49
Last NCAA Appearance: 2018
Providence was a charter member of the original Big East back in 1979 and won their first-ever Big East regular season title this year. Head coach Ed Cooley took home the honors of being conference Coach of the Year, and some may argue he should be National Coach of the Year after leading the Friars to a 25 – 5 record.
This Friars squad is an experienced crew. Their top four players, Jared Bynum, Al Durham, Nate Watson and AJ Reeves, are all upperclassmen and are the 6th most experienced team in the country. Watson and Durham lead the team in points averaging 13 per game, while Bynum dishes out 4 assists on top of his 12 points/game.
Look for Providence to play in a close game as that seems to be how they win games. But first, they’ll have to keep up with the high-scoring South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
(13) Vermont Catamounts (28 – 5)
AP: Unranked, NET: 52, KenPom: 59
Last NCAA Appearance: 2019
The Catamounts stormed through the America East Conference this season, losing only one game to Hartford in overtime. They made a statement in their conference tournament by winning every game by 36.6 points on average. Vermont is GOOD.
Big man Ryan Davis scores 17.2 points/game and South Burlington, Vermont native Ben Shungu is just below Davis with 16.1. The two have been studs all season and are a major reason why Vermont is in the top-50 in Offensive Efficiency on KenPom.
Head coach John Becker has taken this Vermont program to the next step. The Catamounts haven’t lost more than five conference games in a season in Becker’s 11-year tenure in Burlington. An upset win over Arkansas could propel the program to new heights.
(13) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (30 – 4)
AP: Unranked, NET: 65, KenPom: 71
Last NCAA Appearance: 2018
The South Dakota State Jackrabbits. The only thing better than their name might be their offense. Coming in at 12th in Offensive Efficiency, this is not a team you want to get in to a track meet with. The Jackrabbits put up 85.5 points/game, second only to top-ranked Gonzaga.
South Dakota State has three players averaging more than 14 points/game – Douglas Wilson, Baylor Scheierman, and Noah Freidel. This team is also the nation’s top three-point shooting team and rarely turn the ball over.
In what seems to be a sexy upset pick, South Dakota State will need their defense to step up a bit to stop an experienced Providence team.
(12) New Mexico State Aggies (26 – 6)
AP: Unranked, NET: 79, KenPom: 81
Last NCAA Appearance: 2019
One thing is clear with this New Mexico State team: they will bully you and body you up and down the court. The Aggies are led by junior Teddy Allen who led the WAC with 19.3 points/game and leads the team in assists and steals. At 6’6” and 212 lbs., Allen can play inside the paint and also shoot from outside. He is a matchup nightmare.
In a weekend that might be full of offense, New Mexico State brings a well-rounded defense to the table. While the WAC isn’t an offensive juggernaut of a conference, the Aggies still held their opponents to average 61 points in their conference tournament. They rank 74th in Defensive Efficiency and rank 20thin Effective FG%, meaning what normally is an easy shot for the offense isn’t so easy against this defense.
New Mexico State hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1993 in Syracuse. Maybe their return to Upstate and Western New York will spell some more good luck.
(12) Richmond Spiders (23 – 12)
AP: Unranked, NET: 81, KenPom: 83
Last NCAA Appearance: 2011
Richmond was one of the last bid thieves to reach the NCAA Tournament after defeating Davidson for their first Atlantic-10 title since 2011. At 19 – 12 before their conference tournament, an at-large bid was out of their reach. The Spiders went on to win four straight games, defeating Rhode Island, VCU, Dayton, and Davidson along the way.
The strongest part about the Spiders is their ability to hang on to the ball. Richmond had the fewest turnovers in the A-10, leading to the 69th ranked offense on KenPom. Grant Golden and Jacob Gilyard lead the team in scoring in the A-10 Tournament, but Tyler Burton is the seasons leading scorer at 16.3 points/game
The Spiders are looking to continue their hot streak, but they are definitely going to need a hot hand to outscore Iowa on Thursday afternoon. The last time Richmond played in the NCAA Tournament they won two games as a 12-seed and reached the Sweet Sixteen.
See y’all in Buffalo.
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