#BillsMafia. My family. If you’re like me, you haven’t been able to stop thinking about the upcoming Divisional Round matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. I shudder at the thought of playing against Patrick Mahomes like I used to of Steph Curry as a Cavs fan. But don’t fret. There is plenty of hope for a different outcome.
To start my preparation for this matchup, I decided to do an in-depth breakdown of their first three matchups (watched the NFL YouTube highlights and looked up box scores). Here are some thoughts I came away with from each of the first three meetings.
Week 6, 2020. Kansas City 26, Buffalo 17
This was easily one of Allen’s worst outings in 2020. For the entire game, Allen was frazzled and inaccurate when under pressure. (14-27, 122 yards, 2 TD 1 INT).
Defensively the Bills were married to the idea of not letting the Chiefs beat them deep. Smart, in theory.
This is where Brandon Beane’s investment in the d-line REALLY shows. In this first matchup, the Bills secondary played a masterclass of disguised coverages and avoided the Chiefs receivers making big plays over their heads. Remember, this was Buffalo’s first matchup ever against Mahomes. Sean McDermott did not know how his personnel would do and played the most conservative game plan possible. As a result, he took away the big play, even if it meant sacrificing the run defense. It backfired.
What we didn’t realize at the time, is that the Bills’ run defense would remain a problem the entire year. That game featured a lot of Ed Oliver, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer and Quinton Jefferson.
Butler and Zimmer are rotational depth pieces this year. Jefferson was cut in the offseason. Harrison Phillips, who is playing some of the best football of his career currently, was injured. Greg Rousseau wasn’t draft-eligible and opted out of the college season. Boogie Basham was at Wake Forest. Star Lotulelei opted out of the season.
Since then, the Bills’ defensive line has been completely reimagined, and it would be hard to believe that Mahomes and Co. would have nearly the same success in the ground game even on their best day, despite some uninspiring performances this year against New England, Indianapolis and Tennessee.
AFC Championship. Kansas City 38, Buffalo 24
The Bills jumped out to an early 9-0 lead with two impressive drives from Allen and Co. However, a problem that arose in both of these games: failing to capitalize on red zone opportunities. You can’t trade field goals for touchdowns against Kansas City.
Allen was incredible considering how much pressure he was under all game. The Chiefs’ dialed up multiple exotic blitz packages and kept the o-line on their heels the entire afternoon, making Allen have to work for even moderate gains through the air.
Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds were put into blenders. The Chiefs knew that the linebackers would have to respect the running game after their first matchup, so Andy Reid attacked the middle of the defense through the air over and over and over again. He schemed up plays for Hill and Kelce to catch the ball in the pocket behind the backers and in front of the all-pro safeties to give them room to operate in the zones.
The Bills’ lack of defensive line reared its ugly head once again, this time lacking pressure on Mahomes. Mahomes had all the time in the world to throw the ball, and since the Bills decided to rush 4 all game long, there was a lack of opportunities to affect the passer.
REDZONE EFFICIENCY. In both matchups, the Bills kicked field goals after reaching the red zone. That’s the biggest difference in each game.
Week 5, 2021. Buffalo 38, Kansas City 20
The first Josh Allen RB1 performance of the season. Daboll unleashed Allen’s legs as a bit of a precursor to what this team’s final form would look like at the end of the season.
Allen and Singletary can dominate this game running the ball effectively if they keep up what they have been able to do the last 5 weeks. Since week 13, Singeltary is 4th in rushing and Allen is 7th. Among ALL rushers. Let that sink in.
The difference in the defensive line play is noticeable as soon as you start watching these highlights. Mahomes is under siege the entire game, forced to make uncomfortable throws and speed up his internal clock.
The only variable we cannot account for yet is the impact of Tre’Davious White’s absence. He was incredible in coverage all game. Dane Jackson has looked good as his replacement but this is his biggest test yet.
Can the Bills still control the line of scrimmage and create problems for Mahomes? They have to assume that he is going to be able to make plays down the field at times. The Bills must truly buy into the “bend but don’t break” defensive philosophy. (Bills fans will need to understand this as well and certainly won’t overreact when Mahomes inevitably does some “Mahomes Shit”).
This goes back to an earlier point; red zone efficiency. The Bills ranked 3rd this year while the Chiefs ranked 10th. Both offenses are going to drive the ball deep into opponent territory on damn near every drive. The Bills went 7-7 and the Chiefs scored 5 touchdowns in 10 minutes of game time. Points will be scored and yards will be gained. Bills fans need to prepare to be as frustrated at times as we know Patriots fans were watching Josh dice them up. Mahomes is going to do some incredible things that even a perfect defensive scheme cannot stop. So will Josh Allen.
Divisional Round 2022
This is going to easily be the most stressful game of the Josh Allen era.
Yes, even more than the Texans game.
Last year’s matchup more than confirms that Brandon Bean’s approach to the offseason was absolutely the right one. The defensive line was a weak point in 2020 and it showed in their ability to push the pocket and defend the run. The first matchup, it caused them to get run all over. The 2nd matchup? The Bills made sure they didn’t get beat on gashing runs and Kansas City gashed them with intermediate passes.
The Bills d-line has been ROLLING as of late. A healthy Harrison Phillips is playing the best ball of his career next to a dominant Ed Oliver. Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison look fresh in the playoffs. The biggest question is how much impact Epenesa, Rousseau and Basham will have this week. Each was a high draft pick, selected to have an impact in this exact moment. Which player is going to step up?
In the end, I think this is going to be an epic Quarterback duel, featuring two young superstars who are both playing at the peak of their powers at just the right time to collide head-on. This is the measuring stick for the Bills. They’ve expelled a lot of demons this year. This is their biggest one yet. Can you go into Arrowhead and beat Mahomes in the playoffs? Only Thomas Edward Patrick Brady has done it and he needed a big assist from Dee Ford.
We don’t need to sell the magnitude of this matchup. It’s in rarefied air. 4 games in 2 years, including two playoff matchups. This game is for more than a birth in the AFC Championship. It’s for the Best Player in the League Belt. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Destined to do this forever.
For my prediction? You’ll just have to wait until Friday’s divisional-round preview. I will say this, however; expect fireworks. And expect Josh Allen to keep it rolling.
Next on Majka’s Musings: NBA Thoughts on Cavaliers-Bulls and Bucks-Grizzlies + why anyone telling you there is an NBA favorite is lying.
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One Response
After reading this, I see one team who’s window is closing and one who’s is opening. Both led by superstar QBs. Time for a new SB rep from the AFC. The road will go through Orchard Park for the next few years.