Drafted in the 2nd round in 2017, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been many Sabres fans’ hopeful solution to a team lacking a franchise goalie. Despite being only 22 years old enterring this season, it’s possible both “UPL” and the Sabres would benefit from giving the Finnish goalie some significant playing time this season.
The Buffalo Sabres have notably struggled to settle on a franchise goalie for the past several years. Since 2012, 19 different goaltenders have appeared in at least one game for the Sabres. Over the same seven seasons, only three of those goalies played more than 45 games in a season; only one of them had a goals-against average (GAA) of less than 3. That was the sophomore Sabres season for two-time Williams M. Jennings Trophy winner Robin Lehner. He did it twice.
The other two netminders to hit the half-century mark for games played were Chad Johnson, the Sabres’ 2015-2016 unsung hero award recipient, and most recently Carter Hutton. Before 2012, the Sabres had five straight seasons of 55+ starts from the #1 goalie. Of course, the starting netminder at the time was the future winningest American goaltender in NHL history, Ryan Miller.
Three of the six goalies used during the 2020-2021 season are under contract in the Sabres organization for the upcoming season – Dustin Tokarski, Michael Houser, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. As of right now, all three are on the outside looking in when it comes to roster spots in Buffalo.
Part of this reason is contractual. Houser’s contract is with the Rochester Americans. Tokarski was signed to a two-year deal prior to the start of last season, technically allowing him to be exposed in the expansion draft at the time. Regardless, general manager Kevin Adams had to replace two of the four goalies that saw the most playing time last season; Hutton, who plays for the Arizona Coyotes, and now Boston Bruin Linus Ullmark. For this reason, he turned to two league veterans, Craig Anderson and Aaron Dell.
Anderson is the favorite to start in net for the Sabres, due to his 18 years of NHL experience. According to Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News, Dell’s contract is a two-way deal, meaning he can be sent to Rochester without having to clear waivers. That leaves Luukkonen and Dell to battle for the “backup role.” Tokarski isn’t completely out of the question to play in Buffalo as well.
The situation grows complex because of Luukkonen’s status as a prospect. A former second-round pick, he has been in the organization since 2017 and appeared in his first NHL action this past season as a 22-year-old. He put up a .906 save percentage with a 3.88 GAA and 1-3 overall record. Lysowski suggested most franchises prefer to see goaltenders play 100 professional North American games before they start in the NHL. Luukkonen has only 52, but it may not be too early to slot UPL onto this year’s NHL roster.
With Craig Anderson already 40 years old, and Aaron Dell’s subpar statistics in New Jersey, putting the young Finnish goaltender in net for the Sabres may not fair as negatively as expected. The last 22-year-old netminder to start games for the team was Ullmark; he appeared in 20 games during the 2015-2016 season. Since that year, he appeared in at least one contest in each season, with pretty consistent statistics.
Starting in 2015-2016, Ullmark recorded save percentages of .913, .917, .935, .905, .915, and .917 across his six seasons in the NHL. To be fair, his first season with a .917 save percentage and his season with .935 was a combined 300 minutes of ice time, which is a relatively small sample size. Regardless, his statistics were very consistent, even with the varying playtime.
Recently, 21/22-year-old goaltenders have actually seen a fair amount of NHL action. According to quanthockey.com, of 21/22-year-old goaltenders that have played at least 20 career games, five of the top ten goaltenders in save percentage came within the last six years.
With a save percentage of .906 through four games, UPL did not qualify for the list because he did not play at least 20 games. If he maintained that save percentage or even dropped to .900, he would still be top-16 all-time amongst that age group. His GAA, while high at 3.88, is consistent with some 21/22-year-old stars. Jonathan Quick had a GAA of 3.84 in his first three starts. Anderson, possibly Luukkonen’s goalie partner this season, had a 4.00 GAA in six games as a young star in 2002-03.
As for 22-year-old goalies, the top ten save percentage list is almost entirely current goaltenders. Tuukka Rask is first, with a .931 save percentage. Of the top 11, only 2 are not current goalies, Doug Favell and Bernie Parent, who both played during the 1967-68 season. Notable goaltenders include Semyon Varlamov, Matt Murray, John Gibson, and Connor Hellebuyck. If Luukkonen grew to have a career similar to any of those netminders, it would be hard to be disappointed.
While the 2021-22 season is not necessarily a make-or-break season for the Sabres and UPL, it’s possible that the team could discover vital information about their goaltending problem if they give him adequate time with the Sabres in the NHL. While he may not be ready to perform as a full-fledged 40+ game starter for another year or two, making Luukkonen a goaltender on this year’s opening night roster may show the team and the fans what to expect from the highly-touted prospect.
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