Entering week 14, the Bills defense allowed one of the league’s best 18.6 points per game. Since then, the defense has given up 35.6 points per game in the last three contests. With the recent defensive slip-ups, should there be legitimate concern about the defense going forward?
The answer is complicated. Before the last three weeks, Buffalo’s defense was in the top half of the league in almost every category. In the last three weeks, the Bills are dead last in points allowed (35.6 per game) and total yards allowed (452.3). The yards allowed stat is concerning, as the team that comes closest is the Bears, with 30+ fewer yards per contest.
It also gets worrisome for the defense when it comes to adjustments. Throughout the season, the defense has allowed 12.6 points in the first half while 9.4 in the second half—a typical sign of good in-game adjustments. In the last three games, the defense has allowed 17.4 points in the first half while allowing 18.3 in the second. Both of these rank last or second last in that span. The adjustments in recent weeks have not worked to the level they were previously hitting.
All of this is complicated because box score stats and advanced metrics can only paint so much of the picture. When playing teams such as the Rams and Lions, giving up yards and a few plays is expected. The Lions have the league’s top-scoring offense, while the Rams have the talent to be dangerous at any point.
The Lions game is a prime example of recent statistics being misleading. The Bills held a 21-point lead towards the end of the third quarter and adjusted to play more of a shell-prevent coverage, thus giving up more yards and points.
An encouraging sign going forward is that the team should be getting four starters back shortly and is coming off a strong second half against New England. Pairing the health of the defense with the offensive inconsistencies and struggles of the Jets and Patriots going forward should lead to some get-right games for the defense.
At this point, moderate concern for the defense seems appropriate. If the struggles continue these last two weeks, there should be extreme concern for the team entering the playoffs.