The quarterback position in fantasy football comes with a lot of debate. Do you draft two? Should you take an elite guy like Mahomes or Lamar Jackson early, hold off for a low-end QB1 like Matthew Stafford, or spend the season streaming the position? If you’re in the camp of picking a top 5 quarterback to lead you to a fantasy championship, we’ve got you covered. Wake and Chris have made their arguments for who will round out the top 5 fantasy quarterbacks for the 2020 season.
Wake’s List
1.) Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Is it really a surprise to see Lamar ranked as a top 2 quarterback ahead of this NFL season? To put it into perspective how great he was last year, he finished with 36 touchdown passes. Even if you decrease that number to 20, he’d still be the QB1! Of course, we saw him struggle a bit against the Bills and then the Titans in the playoffs, so maybe defenses are prepared to flip the script on Lamar. Still, in his worst 4 games last year, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points. That’s an incredibly solid floor. I made the mistake of starting Cam Newton of Lamar in week 2 of last year. I will never ever put someone over him again. He’s literally the equivalent of playing two players in one position.
2.) Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
I have my concerns for Kansas City as an offense, and I promise you they don’t start with the QB. And if anything, it could favor Pat Mahomes and his opportunities to pick up extra fantasy points. Their offensive line has been decimated. I made this point on The Crowd Assist Podcast last week. They lost three offensive linemen since winning the Super Bowl in February: Stefan Wisniewski in the offseason, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Rookie Lucas Niang (who is very similar to Cody Ford as a prospect). On top of that, RB Damien Williams per PFF was the 12th ranked pass blocking RB last year, and he opted out too! Is this enough to call Mahomes a bust candidate? No! But they open up the season against the Texans, Chargers, Ravens and Patriots, all who have a track record of getting to the QB. It could take some time for this new makeshift o-line to build chemistry, and that’s enough for me to put Lamar over Mahomes.
3.) Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
Kyler was genuinely electrifying last year. If Lamar wasn’t busy Lamaring, Kyler might’ve gotten more credit as a breakout fantasy player in his rookie year. Despite having two young receivers and an aging Larry Fitzgerald, he still finished as the QB 7 last year (only .28 points behind Josh Allen). Add in Deandre Hopkins who might be the best WR in the NFL, and a full season of Kenyan Drake, this offense could be absolutely explosive this year. Right now, Kyler’s current ADP is 49, and he’s going as the fifth QB in most drafts. There’s definitely value in taking him in Round 5, and barring something crazy, I’ll have a lot of shares of Kyler Murray.
4.) Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
I used to think Russell Wilson was just a flash in the plan. No joke. This was my worst take ever. He’s maybe been the most consistently great QB of my lifetime, outside of Drew Brees. DK Metcalf is an emerging star. Tyler Lockett is good for either 120 yards or 35 yards every game. If somehow they managed to bring in Josh Gordon or Antonio Brown, that’d make this the best receiving core in the NFL. No cap. Also, it’s no secret that this defense is just a shell of what it used to be. Great QBs with bad defenses make outstanding fantasy QBs. I anticipate they’ll be in a lot of shootouts this year, which means they won’t be able to go run heavy like they seem to do even though they have Russell Wilson manning the ship. He’s going one spot ahead of Kyler in drafts and it’s honestly splitting hairs between the two. I see them finishing very close to each other.
5.) Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Am I biased? Sure. But I’m very confident putting Josh ahead of Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and whoever else you can make the case for here. This could be a huge year for the kid. His low passing totals last year were by design. When the Bills get ahead, they like to play it safe, run the football and grind the clock out. But here’s the thing, and this is not a knock on the Bills defense. I don’t think the Bills will be up by two scores as much as they were last year. The quality of competition this year is so much higher. The Bills will need to score more points this year and with the continuity this team has on the offensive line and at almost every offensive starter, plus the addition of Stefon Diggs, this is going to be a very consistent and productive offensive unit. Look for JA to post career highs in yards and total touchdowns this year.
Chris’ List
1.) Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is the most electric QB the NFL has seen since Michael Vick, so rewarding him with the number one spot on this list was a no brainer for me. In 15 games, he racked up 421 fantasy points (66 more than Christian McCaffrey). He earned unanimous MVP honors to the tune of 36 passing touchdowns while adding 1200 rushing yards and 7 TDs on the ground. Lamar is essentially two players, a QB1 and an RB2. Even if he doesn’t repeat his passing touchdown efficiency, his rushing ability gives him the safest floor in the NFL as a quarterback. Next season, I expect him to have another 1000 yards rushing which should safely place him inside the top 5 for a second consecutive year.
2.) Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy football aside, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. However, after throwing for 50 touchdowns in 2018, he took a step back in the statistical category. In 14 games, Mahomes threw for 26 touchdowns and 5 INTs while adding a couple hundred rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Was anybody expecting Mahomes to repeat the godly efficiency that earned him MVP honors? Hell no. In fact, only three QBs in NFL history have thrown for 50 touchdowns in a single season. What we’re looking at here is a player who has won an NFL MVP, Superbowl MVP, and the Lombardi trophy in 2 seasons as a starter in the NFL. He may go down as one of the best QBs to play the game when all is said and done. Drafting Mahomes for your fantasy team will give you QB1 upside each and every week, which is incredibly hard to find.
3.) Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s 348 fantasy points last season was enough for him to finish as the QB2 behind Lamar Jackson. He threw for a hair below 5000 yards, while adding 30 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs and a couple hundred yards on the ground. Over the offseason, Dallas’s offense has only gotten better. In the draft, they replaced Randall Cobb with highly coveted prospect CeeDee Lamb. Also, they hired Mike McCarthy as their new head coach. Any coaching changes, especially in an offseason such as this, is often reasonable cause for concern. However, McCarthy made it a point that he will not be implementing a new offensive system. This sentiment was supported by Dallas retaining offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, which is incredible news because he has done wonders for Prescott’s development. Personally, I would not be surprised if Dak tops 5000 passing yards, 30+ passing TDs, and is in the MVP conversation by the end of next year.
4.) Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is the most efficient quarterback in the NFL with one of the safest floors for fantasy football. In his 8 year career, Wilson has averaged 19.2 fantasy PPG with his worst per game production coming in 2013 where he averaged 17 fantasy PGG. Not a soul would consider Wilson to be outside of the top 3 QBs in the NFL, however, efficiency is not rewarded with productive fantasy football. To put this into perspective, Wilson’s 31 passing TDs, 350 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs while only throwing 5 INTs earned him the QB4 slot at season’s end. However, Jameis Winston’s 5100 passing yards, 33 TDs and 30(!) interceptions slots him just ahead of Russ at QB3. Unfortunately for Wilson, his ceiling is capped by Pete Carroll. Seattle is a notoriously run heavy offense that wants to take as much pressure off of Wilson as possible. They don’t want him attempting 30+ passes per game if they don’t need him to, which is smart if you’re trying to win a football game but painful when it comes to managing a fantasy football team. Nevertheless, Wilson is a star studded talent and is worthy of being drafted as the QB3 in fantasy drafts this season.
5.) Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Coming in at number 5 is our fearless leader, Josh Allen. Last season, Allen finished as the QB7 despite throwing for under 60% completion. For as much slack as Allen gets for his “accuracy issues”, he has the ideal prototype for a successful fantasy quarterback. In his first two seasons, Allen has a combined 1100 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns, tying Saquon Barkley in TDs on the ground over that same span. If Allen can clean up his deep ball accuracy, the sky’s the limit for his fantasy production. With the addition of Stefon Diggs and draft picks Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah Hodgkins, Buffalo used the offseason to pour even more talent into an already intriguing offense. It’s important to note that continuity will play a hidden role in how well the offense runs, as Buffalo is one of four teams that return all 5 starters on their offensive line. Another year of experience paired with the improvements on offense gives me confidence that Allen’s production will take another positive step in Year 3.
Last Thoughts From Chris Alaimo: With all this being said, when you draft a QB like Jackson or Mahomes you’re drafting them with the expectation that they’ll perform at their ceiling. However, it goes without saying that if LJ8 has a repeat performance of last year there’s no chance you’d regret taking him at his ADP. In my opinion, the most effective strategy is to look for a QB that’s poised to breakout in the later rounds that gives you a larger return on investment. This strategy allows you to allot your early round picks on game changing skill players whom will likely have a larger impact on your team as the season progresses. Both of these strategies come down to taking calculated risks. If you believe LJ8 will repeat, pull the trigger because he’s as game changing as it comes at the QB position. On the other hand, if you want to use your 2nd round pick on a cornerstone skill player instead, look for a guy like Josh Allen in round 6 who could potentially outperform his ADP.