Photo: (David Richard/AP)
Is Nick Chubb MVP Caliber?
Making The Case
Nick Chubb is the unsung hero of the Browns offense. The dude is a stud. Playing in Cleveland alongside stars like Odell Beckham Jr. and Baker Mayfield, he doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.
All that is about to change. Cleveland started the offseason by bringing in a promising head coach, followed up with a solid free agency, and finished with a strong draft. The upgrades improved the team as a whole, but nobody benefited more than Nick Chubb. In 2020, he will be given the opportunity to claim his own superstardom.
1.) Kevin Stefanski
Cleveland’s offseason began shortly after their last regular season game, letting go of Freddie Kitchens and starting the search for his replacement. During the playoffs, Cleveland was able to analyze coaches who were a potential fit. Scouting the likes of Robert Saleh, Brian Daboll, Eric Bieniemy, and Kevin Stefanski.
Following Minnesota’s loss in the playoffs, Cleveland brought the offensive coordinator in for an interview before ultimately anointing him their new head coach.
What we can expect from a Kevin Stefanski led Brown’s offense?
Run First Philosophy
Dalvin Cook ran wild with Stefanski calling the shots in Minnesota, only needing 14 games to rack up 1500 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns. As a former running back coach, Stefanski draws his scheme in a way that gets the most out of his running backs. Proficient at involving his backs in the running and passing game, he knows how to pound the rock to set up play action passes and cheeky screens. Cook benefited by converting 63 targets into 53 receptions and 519 yards, for an average of 4.5 targets/game.
In 2019, Minnesota ranked 4th in rushing play percentage, running the ball on 48.30% of their plays while Cleveland ranked 15th with 40.39%. It’s important to note that Chubb was relied on as the red zone RB in Freddie Kitchen’s offense, tying Christian McCaffrey for most runs inside the 10-zone (Cook ranked 2nd). However, the volume of red zone work could not cover up for poor play calling. This manifested into Chubb converting TDs on just 37% of carries inside of the 5-yard line. To put this into context, Cook converted 69% of his 5-zone carries (while Ezekiel Elliott’s 83% ranked 1st).
Chubb is licking his chops learning this new playbook. Having a bright, run-oriented play caller will gift him with an uptick in quality touches both on the ground and through the air (resulting in an increase in red zone efficiency).
2.) Jack Conklin
Cleveland’s biggest problem last year (besides play calling) was their offensive line. Baker Mayfield was sacked 40 times, the 7th most in the NFL. Heading into free agency Cleveland needed to make offensive line their number one priority, and that they did.
Cleveland landed 25 year old RT Jack Conklin inking him to a three-year, $42 million deal ($30m guaranteed). Securing the highly coveted Conklin was a savvy move, as it gets some much-needed protection for their quarterback and will open up running lanes for Nick Chubb.
3.) Jedrick Wills Jr.
“With the 10th pick of the 2020 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select … Jedrick Wills Jr., Tackle, Alabama”
The Browns continued to add talent to their offensive line by drafting Jedrick Wills Jr. from Alabama with the 10th pick in the draft. Landing Wills was a dream scenario for the Browns, who had him rated as “the best pure tackle in the draft”. What drew Cleveland to Wills Jr. (besides his 6’5 320 pound frame), was his success as a run blocker. They visualize that he will fit right into the zone blocking scheme implemented by Kevin Stefanski and taught by offensive line coach Bill Callahan.
Projected Offensive Line
LT: Jedrick Wills Jr. ; LG: Joel Bitonio ; C: J.C. Tretter ; RG: Wyatt Teller ; RT: Jack Conklin
With these additions, the Browns stayed true to their plans and converted their biggest weakness into a sneaky strength.
4.) Strength of Schedule
Last but not least, based off of 2019, Cleveland has the 4th easiest strength of schedule (.460).
“They play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a year, how could they rank that low when it comes to strength of schedule?”
Strength of schedule is ranked based on opponent’s winning percentage.
Division:
Ravens (.875), Steelers (.500), Bengals (.125)
Home:
Texans (.625), Eagles (.562), Colts (.438), Raiders (.438), Redskins (.188)
Away:
Titans (.562), Cowboys (.500), Jets (.438), Jaguars (.375), Giants (.250)
It doesn’t take long to see the potential for juicy fantasy matchups. The Bengals, Redskins, and Jaguars all ranked in the bottom 5 when it came to rushing defense in 2019, while games against the Cowboys and Texans have potential to be fantasy shootouts.
Final Thoughts
“How high should Nick Chubb be on my draft board?”
As of today, Chubb’s ADP sits at 12. This values him as a late first/early second round pick and makes him the 8th RB off of the board. Personally, I would take Chubb over the likes of Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and have him in a similar tier to Ezekiel Elliot. His upside is too valuable to ignore.
By this time next year, he may be in the conversation for first overall pick in the draft.