BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Folks, we are in for a treat tonight! Every year the Home Run Derby is spectacular but this year it is even more special thanks to the event being hosted at Coors Field. Not only is the derby at the most hitter friendly park in all of baseball, but it also has a loaded field filled with multiple players that can hit the ball 500+ feet! Tonight is going to be a fun one folks and I’m here to give you all the information you need to know as we watch some of the best sluggers in the MLB hit baseballs to the moon!
Before I dive into the derby participants, let’s take a look at Coors Field and what makes it such an awesome ballpark! For starters, Coors Field has one of the more unique dimensions in all of baseball. Believe it or not, Coors Field is one of the larger parks in the MLB. It is 347′ down the left field line and 350′ down the right field line. Dead center field is 415′ and right center and left center are both very deep at 390′ and 375′ with right field having a higher wall all the way to center field. So what makes this place a hitters paradise? One word: Elevation. Coors Field has by far the highest elevation of any major league park at more than 5,200 feet above sea level. This means one thing and one thing only, the baseball is going to carry and carry like crazy. I would not be surprised in the slightest if we got multiple home runs over 500 feet but enough about the ballpark, let’s get to the stacked derby contestants.
Home Run Derby Participants
The participants in the Home Run Derby are Shohei Ohtani (33 Home Runs), Joey Gallo (24), Pete Alonso (17), Matt Olson (22), Salvador Perez (21), Juan Soto (11), Trevor Story (11), and Trey Mancini (16).
Ohtani is currently the major league leader in home runs and also the betting favorite at +200. He leads the field in both exit velocity (93.7mph) and hard hit percentage (56.9%) and will be a very popular pick. Ohtani is one of the most likable players in all of baseball and he has hit some bombs this year. Watching him in Coors will be an absolute treat! As much as I like Ohtani I can’t justify taking him at +200 with how stacked this field is but I would not be shocked in the slightest if he won. Ohtani has very quick and hard swing where he jumps out and attacks pitches. He swings as hard as anyone in baseball and I’m a little worried that stamina could become a factor towards the end of the round. However, this is Shohei Ohtani we are talking about and he has proved to be a super human athlete capable of any challenge.
Ohtani will go up against Juan Soto in Round One, who I think is being slept on big time by the public. Soto is just 22-years-old and already one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. Despite having just 11 home runs on the season, Soto still has an elite hard hit rate of 54.1% and an elite exit velocity 92.6 mph. Soto hit 13 home runs in just 47 games last season, 34 home runs in 2019, and 22 home runs in 2018 at just 19 years of age, so there is a ton of power here. Soto was one of my favorite sleepers when he was announced as part of the derby and I like him even more going up against Ohtani because no one will be on him! He is currently anywhere between +650-800 to win the derby and +246 to defeat Ohtani in Round One.
The next match-up is between Salvador Perez and the defending champion Pete Alonso. Believe it or not, Salvador Perez has the second highest hard hit rate in this entire field at 56.7% trailing only Ohtani. Perez has 21 home runs this year and although he may not be the most popular pick, he won’t go down easy. Although Perez has never hit over 27 home runs in a season, he has potential to get close to 40 this year and it’s no fluke. Over the past two seasons, Perez has set a career high in HR percentage as well as fly ball percentage and exit velocity. He’s in prime condition to post a big number but unfortunately he’s facing off against Pete Alonso who is the defending champion.
I’ll be perfectly honest, I am a huge fan of Alonso this year and I think he has a very good chance to go back-to-back. For starters, he is a right handed batter and I think there’s a slight advantage to righties at Coors Field. Also, Alonso doesn’t have to swing nearly as hard to generate pure power. He is 6’3″ and 245 lbs of pure muscle and won’t tire himself out by swinging too hard. Even with a hard hit rate of only 47.1% (which is still very good), Alonso has hit 17 home runs on the season in only 77 games. Let’s also not forget that he hit 53 home runs as a rookie and hit 23 home runs in the final round last year. Alonso has the experience, skill, and pure strength to make him a very enticing pick tonight.
On the other side of the bracket we have a fan-favorite Joey Gallo versus the hometown player Trevor Story. When you think of Joey Gallo you should think one thing, power. Gallo is a home run or bust type of player who will either hit the ball farther than you’ve ever seen it go or strikeout trying to do so. Gallo has 24 home runs on the year and is coming into the derby on a red hot stretch. He has hit 15 of his 24 home runs since the start of June and already has two seasons where he hit over 40 home runs. Gallo is going to hit some eye popping nukes tonight and could even hit a few out of the stadium. His current odds to win the derby are +350 and although I like those odds I am a little nervous because everyone I have talked to is on Gallo.
Although he faces a daunting opponent in Round One, I still expect Trevor Story to put on a show. Even though this field is filled with a ton of popular players, the home crowd will be rooting for their guy, Story to win. Story is one of those players who continues to get better year after year and even though he only has 11 home runs, they have been big ones. Story leads all players in baseball with an average home run distance of 419 feet. When he hits them, he hits them far and his familiarity with Coors Field could give him a slight advantage. The bad news is Story hasn’t hit the ball as hard this year as he has in his career. He’s experiencing a career low in HR percentage and hard hit rate. As much as I’d love to see the hometown guy make a run, he has very tough match-up and could find himself out early.
The other match-up on this side of the bracket is between two of my favorite players in baseball, Matt Olson and Trey Mancini. In my opinion, Matt Olson is still one of the most underrated power hitters in the league. This year everything is clicking for Olson and he’s on pace to set a career-high in home runs. Already at 23 dingers, Olson is playing the best baseball of his career and crushing the ball. Olson has hit 124 balls over 95 mph this season and has hit the ball hard to all areas of the field.
Trey Mancini is the other guy in this match-up and he is someone that everyone should be rooting for. After being diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer a little over a year ago, Mancini has made an unbelievable recovery and is now in the home run derby. Although he might not be the biggest power hitter in this field, I will be rooting for him very heavily to put on a show. Emotions will be very high for Mancini but it could benefit him as the crowd will absolutely get behind him when he starts hitting home runs. Momentum could carry Mancini to a round one victory and possibly even more!
Steve’s Home Run Derby Picks
Round 1
- Juan Soto over Shohei Ohtani
- Pete Alonso over Salvador Perez
- Joey Gallo over Trevor Story
- Trey Mancini over Matt Olson
Round 2
- Pete Alonso over Juan Soto
- Joey Gallo over Trey Mancini
Championship Round
- Pete Alonso over Joey Gallo
Ty B’s Home Run Derby Picks
Round 1
- Juan Soto over Shohei Ohtani
- Pete Alonso over Salvador Perez
- Joey Gallo over Trevor Story
- Matt Olson over Trey Mancini
Round 2
- Pete Alonso over Juan Soto
- Joey Gallo over Matt Olson
Championship Round
- Joey Gallo over Pete Alonso
It wouldn’t be a Steve article without some bets so here’s where I am putting my money tonight!
- Soto over Ohtani Round 1 (+246) – 1 unit
- Mancini over Olson Round 1 (+151) – 1 unit
- Most HR by any player Round 1 Over 25.5 (-105) – 1 unit
- Juan Soto to win Home Run Derby (+700) – 1 unit
- Pete Alonso to win Home Run Derby (+450) – 2 units
- Pete Alonso to hit longest Home Run (+350) – 1 unit
- Longest Home Run Over 506.5 feet (-150) – 2 units
- Joey Gallo defeats Pete Alonso (+1400) – 0.5 units
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