Another week of college football has passed and we inch ever closer to the end of the season. Now is the time of year, to borrow a phrase from the great Scott Hanson at NFL Redzone, we can call the Witching Hour. Where teams become bowl eligible and contenders prove if they are for real or just pretenders.
I will admit I was way off about Clemson. Once again this past Tuesday, the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee has done their job of giving us a Top 25 and more importantly Top 4, to see who will compete for this year’s National Championship. On Twitter I gave my predictions for the Top 4 and the first 2 teams out, and I will say I was pleasantly surprised by the direction the committee took this week’s rankings.
1. Georgia (9-0), 1st in the SEC East
After being thrown down to 3rd in the first CFP rankings of 2022, the Georgia bulldogs quickly rebounded with a decisive win at home against then #1 Tennessee. Their pathway to the SEC Championship game is clear and Kirby Smart continues to have them humming like the National Title team they were a year prior. Coming into last week I discussed how Georgia had the most balanced offense and defense in the nation and after facing off with the #1 ranked offense in the country last week, that held true.
Coming into the game Tennessee was averaging 523.7 yards a game, Georgia held them to 289. Georgia was dominant on both sides of the ball and definitely look like the #1 in the country. Say whatever you want about the 25 year old Stetson Bennett but he has full control of the offense and when he’s on, no one has proven yet that they can stop him. Their next three games are @Miss St, @#24 Kentucky then home for their rivalry game against Georgia Tech, all should be easy wins as they get geared up for the SEC Title game.
Best win: vs #1 Tennessee 27-13
- Ohio State (9-0), tied for 1st in Big Ten East
People may come after Ohio State this past week for their less than impressive performance against the 1-8 Northwestern Wildcats, and rightfully so. Understandably the weather played a serious factor in this game, with it downpouring the entire game and severe wind, but for a large stretch of the first half OSU looked like they were completely lost. The passing game was hindered by the weather leading to an emphasis on the run, something the Buckeyes can do but struggled with getting going. Outside of a 27 yard run by Miyan Williams, he averaged a rough 3.4 YPC on 25 attempts, enough to help get the win but not ideal from your premier back down the stretch.
One good thing came out of this game besides the win for the Buckeyes, was CJ Stroud finally developing a sense of when to run. Stroud is an elite passer no doubt about that and he is able to escape the pocket and keep his eyes down field, but he almost never takes off. Against Northwestern however, he had 6 carries for a staggering 79 yards. Just over 13 YPC! Now that should not be considered sustainable but if Stroud can continue showing off his mobility, OSU’s offense will be even more impossible to defend against.
Their next 2 games should be easy, Indiana at home and @Maryland. Their biggest and final test comes against #3 Michigan to end the year. If the rankings hold, it will be the rivals highest ranked matchup since 2016.
Best win: at #13 Penn State 44-31
- Michigan (9-0), tied for 1st in Big Ten East
Michigan has a problem. Yes, they are 3rd in the nation and are putting up over 40 points per game but they still have a major issue. Michigan loves to play with their food. Since they started Big Ten play, Michigan has had 5 one score games going into the half. Then upon coming out of their crowded (and dangerous) tunnel for the 2nd half they have been blowing teams out. No one cares about the way the game starts if you end up winning and Michigan is 9-0, so why is this an issue?
Second half teams against good teams don’t always prove to be successful. Only 3 of those 5 teams have above .500 records and more importantly only 2 are bowl eligible. Against stiffer competition, Michigan could find themselves in a shootout and even with a Heisman caliber RB in Blake Corum, I would not trust their chances.
Their next three games are home against Indiana, home against #21 Illinois (#1 in Big Ten West) and then the big one, @#2 Ohio State. As previously mentioned this would be the highest ranked game in the rivalry since 2016.
Best win: vs #10 Penn State 41-17
- TCU (9-0), 1st in the Big 12
They finally did it. The committee finally put someonefrom the Big 12 not named Oklahoma into the top 4. The CFP committee and the Big 12 have an uneasy relationship, sometimes there truly is a deserving team from the Big 12, usually Oklahoma, that will make it into the 3 or 4 seed spot. Then they will promptly be annihilated by an SEC team and we ask ourselves why did we put them in? Now this year the case could be the same, TCU could easily be frauds and not live up to the hype, they might even lose this week @#18 Texas, but at least they got the committee’s respect.
Last week, I had thought about including them as a postmark team after the top 6 but getting to the top 4 seems like the right time. TCU has had 4 ranked wins; vs #18 Oklahoma, @#19 Kansas, vs#8 Oklahoma St and vs #17 Kansas State (typing this out I realize just how much TCU hates the great plains). They also have the #4 offense in the country led by Max Duggan who is just an absolute dawg on the field. He has similar passing stats to Stroud, the Heisman front runner, with fewer TO, but is not being discussed in the same conversation at all. Now I do think he should win?
No, but Max Duggan should be in the convo. TCU is not entirely perfect however. They do have the #85 ranked defense in the country though, which for the Big 12 isn’t terrible but overall is pretty horrendous and far behind the top 3. In the eyes of the CFP committee they will need to be perfect the rest of the year and win the Big 12 in order to have a shot at the National Title.
Best win: vs #8 Oklahoma State 43-40
First two teams out:
- Tennessee (8-1), 2nd in the SEC East
Well Tennessee, maybe next year. With their loss at Georgia this past weekend their chances of the SEC title and National title are gone.
They should not lose all hope however, Josh Heupel in his 2nd year has proven he can be successful and competitive in the SEC (easier said than done) and as long as they stay as a one loss team they should be able to get New Year’s Six bowl game, either the Sugar or Cotton Bowl which is quite the improvement from last year and their most respected bowl berth since 2004.
Also this year isn’t a loss for QB Hendon Hooker and WR Jaylin Hyatt who more likely than not will both be taking home some hardware come awards season. Best of all they beat Bama for the first time since 2006, that’s enough of an accomplishment on its own this season.
Best win: vs #3 Alabama 52-49
- Oregon (8-1), 1st in PAC-12
Since getting absolutely rocked by Georgia at the Chick-Fil-A kickoff week 1 of the season 49-3, Oregon has rebounded and is looking like one of the best teams in the country. Really the only thing stopping them from being the #5 or higher teams in the country is just how BAD the loss to Georgia was. Things have turned around in Eugene and the Bo Nix (more on him later) led Ducks have won 8 straight with two ranked wins against #12 BYU and #9 UCLA.
Boasting the 2nd best offense in the country but the 75th defense, they leave a lot to be desired and are a lot closer to TCU and Tennessee then they are to Georgia or Ohio State. Still, they are on a tear and will more likely than not be competing for the PAC-12 Championship.
Now back to Bo Nix, he transferred into Oregon this year after playing 3 seasons at Auburn where he showed flashes but for the most part was in the range of 5th-6th best QB in the conference, now he looks like one of the best QBs in the country. He has fully cemented himself in the Heisman conversation after putting up 10 total TDs the past 2 weeks. He is playing as a dominant dual threat QB and the main reason for Oregon’s success this season.
Up next on the schedule for Oregon is two ranked matchups at home, first #25 Washington then #13 Utah before having to travel to Corvallis against biggest rival Oregon St. If they make it through that gauntlet, they will be rewarded with most likely a top 10 matchup against #8 USC in the PAC-12 Championship. No one said it would ever be easy.