Let’s assess the AFC playoff race The Kansas City Chiefs once again escaped from the jaws of defeat, and the Carolina Panthers had no business being in that game.
Let’s be honest. The Chiefs have made a habit of it this year to fuck around. They’re about to find out. Technically, they found out last week against the Bills, but the fan base still has to feel fine as they are 10-1 teams and still have the inside track on the number one seed.
But the schedule is less favorable than most are giving credit for.
Chiefs Schedule
- Raiders
- Chargers
- @ Browns
- Texans
- @ Steelers
- @ Broncos
Finishing the season up in Denver could be one of the season’s biggest games and be the Sunday night football finale, especially if Denver is playing for a playoff spot and the Chiefs are playing for the one seed. We saw how that first game went. It was pretty impressive how the Broncos and the Broncos have played that game all year, so this is not a gimme.
The #1 seed is wide open for the Bills, and the Chiefs have been skating by.
Point Differential: A Red Flag for Kansas City?
Among contenders, the Chiefs have the worst point differential at +52, trailing the Bills (+107), Chargers (+75), Steelers (+66), Ravens (+63), and even the Broncos (+62). For context, here’s how they compare to other teams:
- Bills: +107
- Chargers: +75
- Steelers: +66
- Ravens: +63
- Broncos: +62
- Chiefs: +52
Point differential is often a sign of dominance—not just winning games but beating them decisively. Kansas City’s +52 ranks just 11th in the league, well behind teams like the Lions (+177) and Vikings (+77). While this might not matter in January, it raises questions about how sustainable the Chiefs’ success is when the margins are thin.
What does it mean, though?
This is to say that it might not matter in January. The Bills could finish the season stronger than Kansas City, snagging the one seed and having the AFC playoffs move through Buffalo and Kansas City.
It could come into here for an AFC title or AFC divisional matchup, beat the Bills once again, and go on to win their third Super Bowl. We’re sitting here wondering when we will get past this team again for another off-season; none of these stats may matter. The way the Chiefs have played this year could be rendered irrelevant by the time we get to the playoffs, but if there’s a year to get them, it’s this year.
We’ve seen this Bills team play well, especially as the season has passed, with people getting back from injury and adding Amari Cooper to this offense.
In the past couple of years, we’ve seen examples of teams that started off with records similar to their 10-1 and then fell off the face of the Earth at the end of the year. The Steelers and Eagles of the past couple of years are good examples.
Neither of those teams had Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, so this could all be moot. This could be another story of the Chiefs’s greatness as they struggle during the regular season and make a historic effort for another Super Bowl. I am confident that that’s still a possibility. Still, I’m also willing to admit that the Buffalo Bills are a better football team right now and that you should feel as good as you ever have about the Bills hoisting a Lombardi trophy or at least having the chance to do so in February.