The University at Buffalo football team will finally get to showcase their talents tonight as they travel to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Bulls come into the season as the betting favorite to win the Mid-American Conference. That role had traditionally been the Huskies as they dominated the last decade of MAC football.
Now the tides have changed as UB comes in as the more talented and experienced squad led by future NFL talents like Jaret Patterson and Malcolm Koonce. Conversely, the Huskies are in rebuild mode under second year head coach Thomas Hammock.
The Huskies took a major step back to 5-8 just a year after defeating UB in the MAC Championship game. This iteration of the Huskies will be even further removed from 2018’s success.
NIU’s roster features 57 new faces which is two more than the 55 returnees. Those new faces will play a key role as many are going to be thrust directly into the starting lineup. This happens all the time in college football, but will be exasperated by the lack of Spring Football and a true training camp.
Now let’s dig into the details!
How to Watch
- The UB @ NIU game will air on ESPN2 at 7 PM
- Anish Shroff (play-by-play) and Tom Luginbill (color analyst) will be on the call from Charlotte with sideline reporter Taylor McGregor on site.
- The game will also air locally on ESPN 1520
- The Lockport Drive-In will also be hosting a watch party for the game. Fans can begin arriving at 5 PM for tailgating. To register follow this link.
UB-NIU History
The Bulls have only beaten the Huskies once. That was back in their first ever meeting in 1968, long before either team made the jump to the FBS (formerly Major College and D-1A).
Since then, NIU has won 12-straight over UB with eight of them coming in MAC play. The last two matchups finished with a one-point winning margin; a 2017 regular season game at UB Stadium and the 2018 MAC Championship.
Top of the MAC
The UB Bulls have had arguably the most success in program history over the past few years. For the first time ever, UB finished bowl eligible in three-straight seasons and have the second-most wins in the MAC over that span with 24.
That small taste of success is nothing compared to NIU’s last decade. The Huskies won four MAC Championships over the last 12 years including a win over UB at Ford Field in 2018.
NIU played in seven of the 10 MAC Championships from 2010-19. UB has only been to two since joining the conference in 1999.
The Huskies boast a 65-15 record in the MAC since 2010 including three undefeated conference seasons. That dominance is really emphasized in cross-divisional games as NIU is 29-4 against MAC East teams since 2008. Miami (OH) and Ohio are the only MAC East teams to have beaten the Huskies in that span.
Key Matchups: Can UB continue to dominate the ground game?
The Bulls dominated the MAC on the ground in 2019 amassing 3,256 yards via the run. That was good enough to lead the MAC and put UB at 10th in the nation.
Jaret Patterson led the way with school-records in rushing yards and touchdowns at 1,799 and 19 respectively. The now junior running back really picked things up over the last six games last year. In those games, Patterson averaged 185.5 rushing yards including a 298 yard and six touchdown performance against Bowling Green.
With the Bulls, it’s a multi-headed approach even with Patterson’s successes over his first two seasons. Redshirt junior Kevin Marks also went over the 1K mark in 2019.
Both Marks and Patterson find themselves on the Doak Walker Award shortlist for the best running back in the country.
However, the Bulls will have to replace three starters from their offensive line. Sophomore center Mike Novitsky returns and is on the Rimington Trophy watch list. Senior Kayode Awosika will move from right tackle to left, so that leaves right tackle and both guard positions open.
Senior Jake Fuzak should step right into the right tackle position and feel comfortable after starting the final two games there for an injured Awosika. Jacob Gall should fill the hole at left guard after starting six games over the past two seasons.
That leaves right guard and the Bulls have plenty of options to choose from, but will go with senior Jack Klenk.
Klenk is a Pittsford native and only really has experience in special teams roles. This will be a big step for Klenk moving into a starting role.
If Klenk has issues, grad transfer Ray Thomas-Ishman joins the Bulls from UMass where he was a three-year starter between the guard and tackle positions. If UB wants to go with a younger option, they could go with 6′ 6″ redshirt sophomore Gabe Wallace.
The Huskies allowed 177.9 rushing yards per game in 2019. They also allowed 25 touchdowns on the ground.
The bad numbers in 2019 do not bode well for NIU who also will have two true freshman and a sophomore starting on their defensive line.
All signs point to a good night on the ground for Patterson, Marks and company.
Another QB Battle
Kyle Vantrease versus matt Myers. Stop me if you have heard this one before….
Bulls fans are having a bit of a Groundhog Day situation as 2020 will start just as 2019 did, with a question mark at the starting quarterback position.
Redshirt sophomore Matt Myers won the starting job coming out of camp in 2019. It was an up-and-down performance for Myers in his five appearances before a season ending injury.
Myers threw for 602 yards and six touchdowns, but only completed 46.7% of his passes. The best performance of Myers’ season was against his toughest task at Penn State. The West Seneca native put up 245 yards on the national stage and led the Bulls to a 10-7 halftime lead.
Vantrease had more experience than Myers entering 2019 after appearing in three games and starting one during his freshman campaign. That experience helped Vantrease when he took over as the signal caller leading the Bulls to a 6-2 record in his starts.
The offense really clicked with Vantrease, but he left a lot to be desired in the passing game. Vantrease averaged just 91.8 yards per game through the air, but he did add six touchdowns on the ground. Also, Vantrease had two less interceptions than Myers in 67 more attempts.
Jonah Bronstein has reported that Vantrease is likely to get the start Wednesday night in Dekalb.
Force Bowers to beat you
NIU returns starting quarterback Ross Bowers who is entering his sixth collegiate season. Bowers was 6-7 as the starter at Cal in 2017 and 2018 before grad transferring to NIU.
Bowers started eight games for the Huskies last season. The 6′ 2″ quarterback threw for 2,130 yards, but had eight interceptions to seven passing touchdowns.
The offensive line was very shaky last year for the Huskies and it caused lots of issues for Bowers. That unit may be just as unnerving for Bowers in 2020 as they have just three upperclassmen, one of which has only seen action in one blowout win.
NIU will not have much of a running game to back Bowers. Due to transfers, opt-outs, and graduations, NIU returns just 43 rushing yards from their 2019 backfield.
JUCO transfer Erin Collins is penciled in as the starter. Collins had a solid year at Hutchinson Community College with 618 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games. Behind Collins is redshirt freshman Rondarius Gregory who had 43 rushing yards last year and true freshman Harrison Waylee.
With the uncertainty surrounding NIU’s offensive line and backfield, UB would be smart to shut down the Huskies’ rushing game before it gets started to force Bowers to beat them. Bowers is not a world beater and makes mistakes when under pressure.
Bold Prediction
I think Tyree is right. This game has all the right ingredients for Jaret Patterson to have a dominant performance on national television.
We saw Jaret score six in a game last year, so five is definitely within reach. If the o-line is cohesive early on, it could be a very long night for the Huskies youthful defense.
Betting Lines & Trends
- UB -13.5
- Over/Under 51.5
- Over UB’s last six games, the Bulls averaged 40.6 points per game and five of those games went over
- UB’s last five MAC games went over while NIU went over in six of their last seven MAC games
- In UB’s last 21 games in November, the Over is 15-5-1
- UB is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven as favorites. However, the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog
- The home team is 5-2 in UB & NIU’s last seven matchups
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