The matchup is set. Buffalo Bills. Indianapolis Colts. Saturday. 1:05 p.m. Honestly, there’s no better way to kick off the weekend than with some Bills football. I’ve been doing some research and show prep for the next episode of The Crowd Assist Podcast, so I thought I’d share some of what I learned about the Colts.
To hear more on this, tune into The Crowd Assist Podcast today at 4:15 pm on the Trainwreck Sports twitter. Kevin and I will be joined by Cody Felger, podcaster for The Bring The Juice Colts Podcast to preview this weekend’s Wild Card matchup. The episode will also be available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts by later tonight.
Want to celebrate the Bills’ first ever sweep of the AFC East. Celebrate in style with the latest release from Trainwreck Sports.
2020 Was Mixed Bag Of Quality Wins & Embarrassing Efforts
As Bills fans, we talk a lot about “signature wins”. The Colts got theirs on Nov. 22, when they took down the Green Bay Packers in overtime, by a score of 34-31. This was a big moment for the Colts, and my perception of them. At the time, this transformed them into a team that I wanted to avoid like COVID. But for every quality win, is a game they’d like to have back.
Most notably, they opened the season with a loss to Jacksonville (who didn’t win another game all year), and after a Philip Rivers interception in Week 17, it looked like they might end the season on the same note. They beat the Titans by 17 in Week 9, but then lost by 19 when they met again in Week 11. And let’s not forget the seventeen-point lead they blew against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. But we’ll get to that towards the bottom of this article.
They’re A Top 10 Offense in The NFL
Everyone knows that the Colts have a solid defensive unit. But secretly, they also tout a Top 10 offense. They ended the regular season with 24 points in 8 straight games, going 6-2 in that span. Over the last 6 weeks of the season, they averaged 29 points per game. Moral of the story: their offense really got going down the stretch, which is something to fear if you’re a Bills fan.
One silver lining is that after a very rough start to the season, the Bills defense finished in the top half of the league. Dean Marlowe, Mario Addison and AJ Klein are some guys who really stepped up, which is exactly what you need if you have ambitions of a deep playoff run.
Myth Busting Philip Rivers: He’s Hard to Sack and Doesn’t… Throw Picks?
Believe me. I was shocked to discover both of these, and I’ll rush right through them because the reason behind this will be explained below. Philip Rivers, out of all QBs who have played in at least 13 games this year, took the second least amount of sacks. Only Ben Roethlisberger (13) was sacked less than Rivers.
Part Two is that he doesn’t throw picks that often. He actually hit the third-lowest interception percentage of his career this year, only throwing picks on 2 percent of his passes. So while Rivers has vastly improved in two areas that he struggled in for a lot of his career, there is way for the Bills to make him have to adjust.
Stop The Running Backs, Stop The Offense
OROY hopeful Jonathan Taylor, along with Nyheim Hines, have provided Philip Rivers with one of the most dependable backfields in the league this year. I was shocked to learn that the Colts leading pass catcher this year is… Nyheim. Hines. Amazing right? His 63 receptions beat out TY Hilton’s 56 for the team lead. The Colts also target their running backs the most out of AFC playoff teams and 3rd most among all playoff teams.
Consequently, Rivers sports the second fastest time to throw in the NFL among year-long starters, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Low risk passing plays. This is why he doesn’t get sacked. This is why he only threw 11 interceptions this year. And this is why it’s crucial that the Bills come out swinging at what’s been their Achilles Heel for much of the season: opposing running backs.
Defense is Good, Not Great
That sentence says it all. This defense is very beatable. Especially for a Bills team coming off their second highest single game point total in team history. The Bills have put up 142 points over the last three games of the season. Their offensive key for this game should be to not change a thing.
When the Colts let Pittsburgh score 21 unanswered en route to a 28-24 loss, they were just unable to keep up with Pittsburgh’s vertical passing game, giving up TDs of 25 and 39 yards. Out of the seven Steelers who caught a pass, six of them averaged over 9 yards per reception. This wasn’t a one-time thing. On the year, the Colts gave up 53 plays of 20-plus yards, landing them in the top 10 for that unfortunate stat.
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You might get from my tone that I think this game is very winnable. Out of all the teams the Bills could have played, I’d only prefer the Dolphins, who’ll be golfing this weekend. So I’ll end this with a score prediction. The Colts put up a fight, but don’t cover, and the Bills handle business and live to play another weekend.
Bills 37 – Colts 24
Go Bills
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