Few jobs have more analytics associated with them than general managers in the NFL. You’ve got current player data, scout data, game analytics, character analytics, intelligence testing and analytics about COVID transmission just to name a few. General managers are bombarded with information and somehow, without getting buried by the weight of it all, they have to make big decisions like finding a franchise quarterback.
They should have known the universe was telling them something when Kim and Terry Pegula, Brandon Beane, Sean McDermott and a couple staff members flew under the cover of darkness to Laramie, Wyoming to put Josh Allen through a private workout. They encountered something most Wyomingites who travel by air are all too familiar with; wind shear. It’s like riding a mechanical bull at 30,000 feet. Despite the turbulence, they apparently recovered quickly after their lungs and bowels started working again. Josh wowed them all with his rocket arm and the rest is history.
Without a doubt, the story about visiting the ‘Bucking Horse State’ and the ‘Josh Allen Experience’ will forever remain a part of BillsMafia’s folklore. In fact, it just might be where the seeds of ‘Big Baller Beane’ were sown in the first place.
One thing for sure, it illustrated just how far this general manager will go to land the right guy to lead the Buffalo Bills and BillsMafia out of a constant state of purgatory. In fact, I suggested many times we could form a convent and call ourselves the ‘Sisters of Perpetual Misery’. Then Big Baller Beane came along and we began to see our prayers answered.
The Bills started drafting better because they now had professional leadership in place using analytics to identify the type of players they were looking to add to the roster. Beane created a scouting department with the best in the business leaving no stone unturned.
However, no decision is greater for a general manager than finding the next franchise quarterback. After nearly three decades of mostly mistakes trying to find the next Jim Kelly, Mr. Big Baller Beane moved up in the 2018 draft and proudly selected Josh Allen.
I remember the boos and the cackling coming from the field house in Orchard Park at Bills Stadium when the pick was made. The decision to draft Josh Allen was made even more difficult at the time because a large contingent of fanboys thought Josh Rosen was the obvious choice (which still cracks me up to this day). More on that in another post someday.
So what exactly did Big Baller Beane see in Josh Allen that much of the rest of the NFL universe didn’t?
Mr. Beane trusted his gut.
After undoubtedly looking at every analytic possible, Beane (and his staff by extension) saw exactly what some of us in Wyoming saw when Josh played here (for those who don’t know, I live in WYO). It became obvious to anyone who played close attention that Josh Allen was a big ball of clay, as so beautifully described in this SI.com article by Greg Bishop.
Beane gave us a great life lesson with respect to Josh Allen. Sometimes you have to trust your gut in spite of what might be seen as an unpopular decision (drafting Allen vs Rosen). It takes some oversized cantaloupe to risk the future of an NFL franchise on a kid who hurled fruit on the farm at Firebaugh and played his college ball at Laramie.
To the great frustration of many analytics folks, defining ‘gut instinct’ in any kind of measurable way is impossible. By its nature gut instinct is a unique experience and varies in scope and intensity. But most old people like me are quite versed in using it when the occasion rises.
A defining feature of those who are comfortable making risky decisions is self confidence. If you unwaveringly believe in yourself that you have the ability to do a particular job, it goes a long way in absorbing the fear of being shunned by the masses for failing to achieve a goal… which in this case meant drafting a franchise quarterback.
After all this gobbledy-gook I just spewed here, the bottom line is that in order to make the best decisions in life, one should objectively pay attention to what their gut instinct is telling them. But it requires authentic confidence to do so… not bloated bravado and/or ego-driven decisions.
~The Caboose~
[Author’s Note: Women reading this know Big Baller Beane’s success is greatly enhanced by his partner in life with the iron clad ovaries. Check out The Mafia Mavens Podcast by Buffalo Rumblings this week to get the real story about how the Beane’s get things done in our interview with Mrs. Hayley Beane].
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