After being dominated by the Ravens in a Sept. 29th battle, the Bills will have a chance to win the war this upcoming Sunday. Many fans and analysts quickly point out that the Ravens are a matchup nightmare for the Bills. This Bills team is much healthier and way different than in week four. If the Bills learn from week four and utilize these three keys to a Divisional Round victory, the Bills will send the Ravens packing.
Key #1: Get An Early Lead
This key is easier said than done, however, it is non-negotiable this week. After a failed opening drive in week four, the Bills punted, and on the first defensive play, the Bills allowed an 87-yard rushing touchdown to Derrick Henry. Plays like that suck the life out of teams for the rest of the game. Especially on the road as shown by the Bills trailing 21-3 at the half.
With the Bills now at home, a crucial start is necessary. Play call scripting is as important as ever. If the Bills win the toss, this is a rare time they should elect to receive. If all goes to plan, force Baltimore to play from behind. Whether that is three points or seven, forcing a team to play from behind in a chaotic environment shifts the mentality slowly but surely.
Key #2: Shift to Base Defense
The Bills love running nickel defense more than anyone (five defensive backs on the field). In week four, the Bills ran nickel 78% of the time. Nickel defense is often excellent in passing down situations but leads to susceptibility against the run since bodies are lighter, and defensive backs aren’t typically as good tacklers as linebackers. The Bills can get away with their nickel defense against most teams because of how good Taron Johnson is at playing that nickel corner role.
The Bills were without Johnson against Baltimore but played without Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. It ultimately led to a 271-yard rushing day for the Ravens. With the defense almost fully healthy, the Bills should adjust to base defense to counter the physicality of Baltimore. An extra linebacker on the field in base defense should provide support against the run. With Dorian Williams, Matt Milano, and Terrel Bernard lined up on the field, the Bills should at least contain the Ravens run game.
Key #3: Protect Josh
Week four was a rare blunder for what is one of the league’s best offensive lines. Josh Allen was sacked a season-high three times, pressured on 44.1% of dropbacks, and the team ran the ball for only 81 yards. Ravens’ defensive coordinator Zach Orr sent numerous disguised blitzes that got home against a quarterback with one of the best passer ratings against the blitz. With the success of Allen using the blitz the first go-around, the Ravens will likely try to situationally bring the heat again. If the line can protect #17, he will likely have a big day against the 30th-ranked Baltimore pass defense.
Keys to winning are always easier said than done. Whether the Bills can successfully complete the blueprint is a story for Sunday at 6:30 p.m.