– Here’s What The Data Shows
This season has been quite the roller coaster for the Buffalo Sabres. For the first time in over a decade, the team were playoff hopefuls before the season. It has not been the start to the season the fanbase and organization wanted. A key reason for the slow start of the season has been scoring regression and the change in philosophy the Sabres are playing.
The Sabres started the season 10-10-2 before dropping their next four and now have returned back to roughly .500 since then. A key reason for the early struggles of the youthful Sabres team can be found in special teams. In 2022-2023, the Sabres’ powerplay was sputtering at times but still managed 23.4%, which was ninth best in the league, but had a dreadful penalty kill which was fifth worst.
This year, the tables have turned. The Sabres are hitting at a woeful 14% on the powerplay, and have struggled to finish, as they are shooting around four goals UNDER expected. On the bright side, the penalty kill has picked up some of the slack and is working at an 80% pace. Is the kill sustainable? Time will only tell.
Not only have the Sabres had their struggles on special teams, but it appears that they have changed their 5v5 philosophy, at least early in the season. The Sabres had an xGoals% of 49.11% last season, which was about average, but they were still a top-finishing team in the league. They finished with 15.23 goals ABOVE expected (+.18/game).
This year it has been a bit of a different story. The team is now BELOW expected goals for in all situations and is 16th in goals for above expected with -2.20 so far this season (-.06/game). The sway of .24xGF in scoring regression has been detrimental in a season where the goalies are still a major question mark and have given 5.25 goals ABOVE expected.
Speaking defensively for the Sabres, there is a slight improvement from last season, but nowhere close to the improvement General Manager Kevyn Adams and company were expecting with the additions of Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in the offseason. The Sabres rank 3rd worst in the league in medium danger shot chances against, and have given the puck away the 11th most in the league. For those that love physicality, the Sabres haven’t been too thrilling in that category, as they have a measly 45.84% of hits given, which is good for 6th worst.
So after all that, is there at least any optimism? Well… the Sabres are 4-3-2 since December 7th and have had wins this season over front-runners such as the Rangers, Golden Knights, Bruins, Avalanche, and Toronto(x2). The Sabres are starting to get healthy again with Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn and Jordan Greenway recently joining the team, with Girgensons nearing a return as he began skating with the team. On top of that, the Eastern Conference is closely knit early this season and no team(s) in wild card range have pulled away, yet.
Although the Sabres haven’t had an ideal start to their season and it’s been very ugly, the long-term success plan is still set in place. With that being said, time is of the essence for the short-term and a turnaround is needed. That starts with the coaching staff playing the best lineup night in and night out, improving special teams, and staying healthy. The Sabres have roughly four months for a turnaround in hopes of showing any signs of life.
*- All Stats Per MoneyPuck.com