FOOOLLLLKKKKSSS!! The day is finally here. It is Thursday morning and the start of the greatest weekend in sports. March Madness has arrived.
This is going to be a unique article for the beginning of the NCAA Tournament. We have fellow Trainwreck Sports basketball gurus Stevie (@RichyStevenson), Jake (@yourfriend_jake), and Ty B (@tyBuffalo) joining myself (@TVDinner14) in giving a breakdown of the whole bracket. Each of us selected a region to focus on, giving some insight on our favorite to make the Final Four, top NBA prospect to look for, and much more. We also gave a short answer for the other three regions.
It is going to be a great couple of weeks in college basketball, and we are here to tip it off for you.
West Region
TVD:
Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs
While this seems to be everyone’s favorite out of the West, I don’t think it will be as easy as some people think. After the Zags take care of business against Georgia State they will have to face either Boise State or Memphis. Boise State is phenomenal on defense, and Memphis is one of the most athletic teams in the country. If they survive that, a potential matchup against Arkansas could be fatal in the Sweet Sixteen. There are three teams in the lower section of the West bracket that Gonzaga has already played this season and could meet in the Elite Eight– Texas Tech, Alabama, and Duke – with the Bulldogs losing to Alabama and Duke.
Sleeper: Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide get a decent draw having to play Notre Dame on Friday at 4:15 in San Diego after the Irish won in double overtime late Wednesday night. This Alabama team has the ability to make a run to a Regional Final, but they need to play consistent, good basketball to get there. The last time they won four games in a row was back in early December. Nate Oats and Company have the 15th most efficient offense in America and like to speed the game up. With Gonzaga on the other side of the bracket, Alabama might make a run for their first Elite Eight since 2004.
Bracket Buster: Vermont Catamounts
Vermont has won 22 of their last 23 games, with the only loss coming on the road by one point in overtime. The Catamounts can shoot the lights out of the gym, they rank 3rd in the nation in Effective FG%. They are led by leading scorers Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu who combine for 33.3 points/game. This team has depth on the bench as there are nine players who average more than 13 minutes/game, with Ben Shungu leading the team with only 30.6. If Vermont is making shots at their own pace, this team could make a run to the Sweet Sixteen.
NBA Prospect: Paolo Banchero – Duke
I figured most would be on Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, so I thought I would give some attention to a top NBA prospect from a small school in Durham, North Carolina. Banchero is leading Duke in points and rebounds and is second in assists. At 6’10”, 250 lbs., the way the freshman from Seattle can move up and down the court, dribble and drive, and defend makes it very clear he will be one of the first names off the board at the NBA Draft.
Top First Round Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vermont Catamounts
I’ll throw out an Honorable Mention to Boise State – Memphis, but I think this game has the potential to be a thriller. It is a 4 vs. 13 game, but in my opinion, Vermont is very underseeded. As I said before, Vermont has been hitting the bottom of the net more efficiently than nearly every team in the nation for the whole season. The Muss Bus from Arkansas will have their hands full, but the Razorback defense will have to step up. The best player on the floor will be JD Notae for the Hogs. An upset might be brewing in Buffalo if the Catamounts can contain Notae.
Jake:
Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Sleeper: Michigan State Spartans
Bracket Buster: Vermont Catamounts
NBA Prospect: Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga
Top First Round Matchup: Boise State Broncos vs. Memphis Tigers
Stevie:
Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Sleeper: Alabama Crimson Tide
Bracket Buster: Montana State Bobcats
NBA Prospect: Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga
Top First Round Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vermont Catamounts
Ty B:
Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Sleeper: Alabama Crimson Tide
Bracket Buster: Vermont Catamounts
NBA Prospect: Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga
Top First Round Matchup: Boise State Broncos vs. Memphis Tigers
South Region
Jake:
Favorite: Arizona Wildcats
As the #2 overall seed in the tournament, the Arizona Wildcats are pretty much a perfectly built team. As Stevie mentioned on the pod from Sunday, Ben Mathurin could go down as the March darling. Mathurin is an athletic freak capable of taking over the game against any competition in the country, averaging 17 PPG this season. While this is a competitive bracket featuring maybe the best 1-4 in the entire tournament, Arizona is built for any challenge that Villanova, Illinois and Tennessee. They have the size to match up with Kofi Cockburn and the Illini. The 7 foot 1 Christian Koloko averages 13 PTS, 7 REBS and 2.7 BLKS per game! And Arizona has the guard/wing play to keep up with the best backcourts in the country, much like either a challenge from Villanova or Tennessee would represent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona is upset before the Final 4. But the Wildcats are a National Title contender, not just a Final 4 contender and deserve to be treated as such.
Sleeper: Illinois Fighting Illini
Speaking of Kofi Cockburn.. The 7 footer has been excellent once again for the Big Ten regular-season champions. Kofi averages 21 PTS and 10 REBS while shooting an efficient 56% from the field. There are so many talented bigs in college basketball this year, that Cockburn feels almost forgotten since he was last year’s darling. But do not mistake this man. He deserves to be mentioned among all of the elite bigs in this tournament and will match and potentially exceed any that he matches up with. With a potential Sweet 16 matchup with the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, Cockburn will have a chance to impose his will on a team that can match him athletically and physically. Villanova and Tennessee are guard-heavy teams who may have trouble with the physicality that both Illinois and Arizona offer. On top of all of that, this team is arguably just as deep as last year’s group who came into the tournament as a 1 seed. While the guard play has dropped off from last year (to be expected after losing Ayo Dosumnu) they have still been effective. Alfonso Plummer, Trent Frazier and Jacob Grandison all average double digits, with Plummer and Grandisonaveraging over 40% from 3-point range. They have talented guards and a dominant big and a battle-tested roster. Don’t sleep on the Illini.
Bracket Buster: Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Sister Jean. Need I say more? The real reason is the same reason that we have fallen in love with past Loyola Chicago teams. They are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, ranking 20th in Defensive Rating but they are also an efficient offense, ranking 35th in Offensive Rating and 10th in true shooting %.While the Ramblers play at a slow pace and would rather grind out a win than get into a track meet, they remain an efficient and effective offensive team. Not to mention that while they are only a 10 seed in this year’s bracket, they currently rank 24th in KenPom AHEAD of their first-round matchup, Ohio State.Loyola has been consistently good all year long, playing to a 13-5 record in the Missouri Valley and winning the MVC tournament championship. Ride with Sister Jean.
NBA Prospect: Benn Mathurin – Arizona
Sit back and enjoy.
Top First Round Matchup: Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
What a game to kick off Friday. As we mentioned, Loyola is better than their 7 seed suggests. But Ohio State is a worthy opponent who is definitely seeded lower than they should be, albeit for different reasons. Ohio State underperformed their expectations all year. This is one of the best-recruiting classes Ohio State has had entering the year and the last couple of years of
recruiting led men’s basketball experts to believe Ohio State could be on the verge of a breakout. Errrrrr not so much. But the potential of this unit is tantalizing and we have seen in spurts what they can look like when they are clicking on all cylinders (beating Duke at home by 5, beating Illinois on the road by 3) and that they can play with any team in the country on the right night. But Loyola is a horrible matchup for the Buckeyes for the reasons mentioned above.
OSU will have trouble imposing their will on the Ramblers and getting them to play at their pace. I think Ohio State’s offense and shooting will keep them in the game, but look for the Ramblers to grind it out late and come away with a 6-7 point victory.
Stevie:
Favorite: Arizona Wildcats
Sleeper: Illinois Fighting Illini
Bracket Buster: Loyola Chicago Ramblers
NBA Prospect: Benn Mathurin – Arizona
Top First Round Matchup: Houston Cougars vs. UAB Blazers
Ty B:
Favorite: Arizona Wildcats
Sleeper: Colorado State Rams
Bracket Buster: UAB Blazers
NBA Prospect: Kennedy Chandler – Tennessee
Top First Round Matchup: Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
TVD:
Favorite: Villanova Wildcats
Sleeper: Colorado State Rams
Bracket Buster: Chattanooga Mocs
NBA Prospect: Benn Mathurin – Arizona
Top First Round Matchup: Houston Cougars vs. UAB Blazers
East Region
Stevie:
Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats
I haven’t made it a secret; I love this Kentucky team. Kentucky does so many things well that are crucial for a deep run. To start off, Kentucky is ranked 4th in the country in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats rebound the ball extraordinarily well at 40.3 a game (7th best in NCAA) and a large chunk of that is from the superstar Junior forward, Oscar Tshiebwe. The All-American is a “walking double double” who averages 17.0 points and a NCAA best 15.1 rebounds per game. More rebounds mean more possessions and Kentucky’s ability to rebound pairs perfectly with its ability to protect the ball. Kentucky only turns the ball over 11.6 times per game (75th best) and its main ball handlers (Tyty Washington and Shavir Wheeler) combine for only 4.5 a game. This creates a ton of extra scoring opportunities for Kentucky who already shoots 48.4% from the field (12th best) and has five players who average double figures. The only “flaws” from this Kentucky team is that they only force 12.1 turnovers a game (222nd best) but with how efficient they are on the offensive end and dominant on the glass, I can overlook that weakness. Kentucky is an experienced, strong, and physical team that is gifted offensively and has a very good chance to cut down the nets!
Sleeper: Texas Longhorns
Part of the reason I think Texas is getting overlooked is because of its first round matchup. The 21-11 #6 seed Longhorns face off against #11 seed Virginia Tech who just won the ACC and are cruising into the tournament. The Hookies may be a very hot team and trendy upset pick but don’t count the Longhorns out just yet. Texas is still a very good and balanced team. Texas ranks 32nd in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. The Longhorns are led by three senior guards (Marcus Carr, Andruw Jones, Courtney Ramey) who all turn the ball over less than two times a game and have made 40+ three pointers each. I always like to lean on experience and guard play in the tournament and Texas has both thanks to its new coach, Chris Beard who has coached Texas Teach to multiple deep tournament runs. It’s also worth noting that Texas has wins over Kansas and Tennessee this year. Don’t be surprised if Texas takes care of Virginia Tech in round one and gives Purdue a very tough test in round two.
Bracket Buster: San Francisco Dons
Not many people know about this San Francisco team but the Dons are much better than the ten seed given to them. According to KenPom rankings the Dons are 21st overall in the country with the 45th best offense and 19th ranked defense. San Francisco scores 77.1ppg and has three players that average over 13 points a game. The biggest strength of San Francisco is its guard duo, Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. These two guards combine for 30.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 3.6 steals per game. These guards can also both shoot from anywhere on the floor and have a made a combined 146 three points this season! It’s also worth noting that San Francisco played a respectable game against Gonzaga in all three contests this year and has non-conference wins over Davidson and UAB who are both tournament teams. Beating Murray State won’t be easy but if San Francisco can get by them they would most likely face off against Kentucky and I would not be shocked if the Dons kept the game very close.
NBA Prospect: TyTy Washington – Kentucky
Normally when you think of an NBA prospect you don’t think of a 6’3” freshmen guard but Tyty is the exception to that. Tytymay be young but he plays like he’s a fifth year starter. Tytyaverages 12.8 points, 3.5 boards, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting a very efficient 53.0 FG% and 43.1 3P%. He has elite playmaking ability, rarely makes mistakes, and always seems to make the right decision for this Kentucky team. Despite being a Freshmen he is the leader of this offense and will continually put his teammates into good positions to succeed.
NBA Pro Comparison: Chris Paul
Top First Round Matchup: Texas Longhorns vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech comes into this game red hot after cruising through the ACC tournament. During the tournament the Hookies were able to beat both North Carolina and Duke by double digits and now face a Texas team that has struggled as of late. Texas has lost three straight games but that does not take away from the season the Longhorns had. The Longhorns are currently ranked 15th overall in KenPom rankings and have three senior guards that should carry them in the tournament. On the other side, Virginia Tech is led by two senior forwards who can score and rebound very efficiently and play tremendous defense. Texas and Virginia both play at very slow paces (340th in tempo) and we will see a lot of long possessions, contested shots, and smart decisions in this match-up. I expect this game to be close from start to finish but I have to go with the Longhorns because of their new head coach, Chris Beard, who is familiar to deep March Madness tournament runs.
Jake:
Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats
Sleeper: North Carolina Tar Heels
Bracket Buster: Indiana Hoosiers
NBA Prospect: Jaden Ivey – Purdue
Top First Round Matchup: Murray State Racers vs. San Francisco Dons
Ty B:
Favorite: UCLA Bruins
Sleeper: Texas Longhorns
Bracket Buster: San Francisco Dons
NBA Prospect: Jaden Ivey – Purdue
Top First Round Matchup: Murray State Racers vs. San Francisco Dons
TVD:
Favorite: Kentcuky Wildcats
Sleeper: Murray State Racers
Bracket Buster: Indiana Hoosiers
NBA Prospect: Jaden Ivey – Purdue
Top First Round Matchup – Murray State Racers vs. San Francisco Dons
Midwest Region
Ty B:
Favorite: Auburn Tigers
I would say Kansas, but they got smoked by 18-points to the SEC’s Kentucky less than two months ago. Auburn has just 5 loses this season and none have been by more than 6-points. The Tigers have played great defensive ball all season and that’s carried them even when the offense has hit rough patches. If Jabari Smith gets hot, he can single-handedly carry the Tigers’ offense on a Final Four run. The freshman averaged just over 17 points and 7 rebounds per game to lead Auburn through a tough SEC schedule.
Sleeper: LSU Tigers
LSU has already fired their head coach Will Wade. Xavier Pinson has battled through injury most of the season. Somehow, LSU has still found themselves as a 6-seed with the 4th ranked defense in the nation per KenPom. The Tigers have four players who average double-digit scoring, so they could catch fire at any time.
Bracket Buster: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits have not lost since December 15th. They average 86.7 points per game and that number didn’t suffer much against the three Power-5 opponents they faced. SDSU gets solid scoring across the board which is always needed when teams look for upsets. If your top guy gets locked down, can you still score? SDSU can and could make some noise.
NBA Prospect: Jabari Smith Jr. – Auburn
The freshman is the No. 1 ranked power forward in the potential 2022 draft class. Smith proved he’s the real deal putting up 17 and 7 in his first season in the SEC while also contributing on the defensive side. At 6-foot-10, Smith offers a ton of upside with his athleticism at that size. Even as a freshman, Smith has a good gauge on rebounding as well as when to drift back to the 3-point line as he shot 44.4% from range.
Top First Round Matchup: USC Trojans vs. Miami Hurricanes
Both teams have shown this year they can play with the best teams in the country. They’ve even proven they can beat the best teams. However, consistency has lacked on both sides. Miami has the 17th ranked offense per KenPom, but boasts just the 155th ranked defense. USC is a much more balanced team which creates a very interesting matchup. The ACC had a bit of a down year, but is it still better than the PAC-12? This game intrigues me for the same reason I still watched Jackass Forever.
Jake:
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks
Sleeper: USC Trojans
Bracket Buster: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
NBA Prospect: Jabari Smith Jr. – Auburn
Top First Round Matchup: Providence Friars vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Stevie:
Favorite: Auburn Tigers
Sleeper: LSU Tigers
Bracket Buster: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
NBA Prospect: Jabari Smith Jr. – Auburn
Top First Round Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Colgate Raiders
TVD:
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks
Sleeper: Iowa Hawkeyes
Bracket Buster: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
NBA Prospect: Keegan Murray – Iowa
Top First Round Matchup: Providence Friars vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits