TVD’s NCAAM Top 25 – Valentine’s Day Edition

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs 21 – 2 (10 – 0)

Winners of 14 straight, the Zags are yet again rolling. Their only two loses this year were to Duke and Alabama, but have beaten Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech and Saint Mary’s. Don’t be that guy who says they play in a cupcake conference; Gonzaga can beat any team in the country.

Current odds to win National Title: +400

2. Auburn Tigers 23 – 2 (11 – 1)

Auburn came off their upset loss to Arkansas with a dominant win over Texas A&M Saturday afternoon. Walker Kessler finished with a triple-double scoring 12 points, grabbing 11 boards and having 12 (!!!) blocks. The Tigers have won 20 of their last 21 games, and average 80 points/game.

Current odds to win National Title: +1000

3. Arizona Wildcats 22 – 2 (12 – 1)

Arizona only has two losses this season, Tennessee and UCLA, both road games. They are one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, averaging 84.9 points/game. This team only has one more test before the regular season ends: March 1 at USC. The Wildcats are lining themselves up to be a 1-seed for the first time since 2014.

Current odds to win National Title: +800

4. Kentucky Wildcats 21 – 4 (10 – 2)

Big man Oscar Tshiebwe is averaging 15.3 rebounds and 16.4 points/game for the Wildcats. Kentucky is ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency on KenPom with guards TyTy Washington and Kellan Grady averaging about 12 points/game, with Grady shooting 43.7% from beyond the arc. This team has a good test Tuesday night traveling to Knoxville in a bout with Tennessee.

Current odds to win National Title: +800

5. Purdue Boilermakers 22 – 4 (11 – 4)

It was an up and down week for Purdue. Tuesday, they had a massive home in over Illinois, but followed that up by getting torn apart by a hungry Michigan squad. On Sunday afternoon they barely survived a Maryland team that has lost 10 of its last 13 games. The Boilermakers have an amazing offense, ranked first in KenPom, but their defense might hold them back come March.

Current odds to win National Title: +1000

6. Kansas Jayhawks 20 – 4 (9 – 2)

The Jayhawks are a very well-rounded team. There is always room to improve, and that could be on the defensive side of the ball, but right now Kansas and Bill Self have New Orleans in sight. Senior guard Ochai Agbaji is the front-runner for Big 12 Player of the Year but is also in the mix for National Player of the Year averaging 19.9 points/game.

Current odds to win National Title: +1400

7. Providence Friars 21 – 2 (11 – 1)

At the top of the Big East, the Friars are on the verge of doing something they have never done: win the Big East regular season title. Winners of 8 straight, Ed Cooley has one of the nation’s hottest teams. There are many doubters looking at Providence, partially because their only two losses were to Virginia and Marquette by a total of 50 points, but they will look to silence the critics with a blockbuster matchup on Tuesday night versus Villanova.

Current odds to win National Title: +10000

8. Duke Blue Devils 21 – 4 (11 – 3)

Duke is the top dog in a very down year for the ACC, yet they are still tied for 1st place with Notre Dame and have North Carolina and Miami one game behind them. Duke is one of two teams to beat Gonzaga this year and have also beat Kentucky, but have lost to Miami, Florida State, and Virginia in conference play. KenPom has Duke with the 11th best offense and 18th best defense in the nation. The ceiling is high for the Blue Devils but as we saw with their game against Virginia, a good defense can slow them down easily.

Current odds to win National Title: +1400

9. Baylor Bears 21 – 4 (9 – 3)

On Saturday Baylor lost one of their best players, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, to a knee injury and will be out for the rest of the season. The reigning champions started the year a perfect 15 – 0 but have dropped four of their last ten. Even with the injury, Baylor handled Texas 80-63. The Bears will travel to Texas Tech on Wednesday night.

Current odds to win National Title: +1600

10. Illinois Fighting Illini 18 – 6 (11 – 3)

As a nice surprise to most, Illinois is currently sitting atop the Big Ten standings. Andre Curbelo is getting heathier with each game, which could spring the Illini to a run deep into March. Kofi Cockburn is averaging 21.5 points/game which is top ten in the country. Wednesday night has turned into a pretty big game as Illinois heads east to square off against a red-hot Rutgers team who has beaten three straight ranked opponents. 

Current odds to win National Title: +3000

11. Villanova Wildcats 19 – 6 (12 – 3)

One of the better offenses in the land but the Big East powerhouse ranks 354th in Adjusted Tempo in KenPom. They beat you by controlling the game. 

Odds to win National Title: +3000

12. Texas Tech Red Raiders 19 – 6 (8 – 4)

Mark Adams has a top 5 defense that allows only 60.9 points/game. The Red Raiders won’t run you out of the gym, but you’ll be lucky to get out of Lubbock with a win.

Odds to win National Title: +5000

13. Wisconsin Badgers 19 – 5 (10 – 4)

Johnny Davis is averaging 20.3 points/game but was held to just 11 in a loss to Rutgers on Saturday. Wisconsin is looking to have their highest seed in the tournament since 2015.

Odds to win National Title: +10000

14. Ohio State Buckeyes 15 – 6 (8 – 4)

The Buckeyes beat arch-rival Michigan in Ann Arbor Saturday evening putting a halt to the Wolverines bubble chances. Their two most recent loses have been by a total of 6 points and haven’t lost in Columbus this season. 

Odds to win National Title: +6000

15. UCLA Bruins 17 – 5 (9 – 4)

Losers in three of their last four, the Bruins seem to have taken a step back for the time being. Losing road games to Arizona and USC shouldn’t make Mick Cronin lose too much sleep, but not closing the door and being upset by 8 – 15 Arizona State in three overtimes should.

Odds to win National Title: +2500

16. Wyoming Cowboys 21 – 3 (10 – 1)

HOW ‘BOUT THEM COWBOYS!! Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike have the ability to take any team in the nation down to the wire. A dark horse to sneak into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, keep your eyes on where this team ends up on Selection Sunday.

Odds to win National Title: +15000

17. USC Trojans 21 – 4 (10 – 4)

The Trojans seemed to be heading in the wrong direction after losing a tough battle against Arizona and then BARELY surviving against Pacific. Late Saturday night, USC came out strong and beat UCLA, extending their winning streak in the cross-town battle to five.

Odds to win National Title: +8000

18. Tennessee Volunteers 18 – 6 (9 – 3)

Winners of four straight, this Tennessee team has a big test Tuesday night when Kentucky comes to town. The Vols have only lost to ranked opponents so far this season, but none of them have came on their home court.

Odds to win National Title: +6000

19. Michigan State Spartans 18 – 6 (9 – 4)

The Spartans beat Indiana by 15 on Saturday, but before that they had lost four of seven in Big Ten play. Their next two home games are against Illinois and Purdue, giving Sparty a good shot at getting hot right before March.

Odds to win National Title: +8000

20. Arkansas Razorbacks 19 – 6 (8 – 4)

Arkansas pulled off one of the best wins of the season last week beating Auburn, but the season moves on with or without you. The Razorbacks battled back from being down 13 to Alabama but eventually lost by one point. Leading scorer JD Notae finished with 12 points after being shutout in the first half.

Odds to win National Title: +10000

21. Houston Cougars 20 – 4 (9 – 2)

The Cougars are coming off their worst week of the season. After starting the season 20 – 2, Houston has lost their last two games to SMU and Memphis. Expect this team to bounce back, their next three games are against Central Florida, Wichita State, and Tulane.

Odds to win National Title: +4000

22. Murray State Racers 24 – 2 (14 – 0)

The class of the Ohio Valley. The Racers last lost was against Auburn right before Christmas and have won 14 straight since. Ranked 26th in both NET and KenPom, this team does have a strong metrics to get an at-large bid if they don’t win the OVC Tournament.

Odds to win National Title: +15000

23. Saint Mary’s Gaels 20 – 6 (8 – 3)

You can’t really drop a team for losing against Gonzaga in The Kennel, but you can for losing on the road against Santa Clara. Randy Bennett’s defense allows 60.5 points/game which is tenth in the nation. Gonzaga was held to 74 points on Saturday, their lowest since scoring 69 against Texas Tech way back on December 18.

Odds to win National Title: +10000

24. Texas Longhorns 18 – 7 (7 – 5)

Chris Beard had a monstrous win at home versus Kansas last Monday night, but fell flat Saturday as Baylor routed them 80-63, and it never felt that close. The Longhorns have some experience on their roster, but most are playing in their first season with each other. This team has a great defense, which could be key in March.

Odds to win National Title: +4000

25. Alabama Crimson Tide 16 – 9 (6 – 6)

Last but not least, Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide. Alabama is having one of the most up and down seasons I can remember. They have beaten Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, Tennessee, and red-hot Arkansas, but have lost to Iona, Davidson, Missouri, and Georgia. There doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason as to when this team will click. Alabama’s longest winning streak of the season has been four games, and we all know you need to win six in a row to cut down the nets.

Odds to win National Title: +5000