After an exciting first week of free agent signings, the 2021 NFL landscape is taking shape. There are some players whose stock (from a fantasy football perspective) fluctuated as a result of some signings. This is not me praising or criticizing the skill of any of these players, except maybe Corey Davis. Bad players put up fantasy numbers all the time, and good players bust in fantasy. It happens. It’s all a matter of supporting cast and opportunity.
On The Rise
Michael Thomas – NO ?
Three moves by the New Orleans Saints benefited their all-star receiver. Committing $12 million to Jameis Winston, he should be the starting quarterback in September. I italicized “should” because the Saints extended their franchise swiss army knife, Taysom Hill, with one of the most bizarre contracts I’ve ever seen. He didn’t look good when he was thrown into a starting role last year, so I anticipate Sean Payton will actually do the smart thing and give Winston the keys to the offense after Drew Brees retired. Jameis is arguably an upgrade over the future hall-of-famer, so Michael Thomas might be allowed to run more than just slant routes (if he can).
The other two moves were a pair of departures in Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook. I doubt the Saints go into the regular season with 142 vacated targets between the two, but that’s a lot to replace in one offseason. So if Thomas can stay healthy, he should see the targets required to be a Top 5 fantasy football option at wide receiver.
Cam Newton – NE ?
I don’t love a lot of what the Patriots have done. Overpaying for Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne while signing two good (maybe great) tight ends… it’s a bold strategy, to say the least. But it’s clear that if Cam Newton is starting for Bill Belichik next season, the weapons around him will give him a much greater chance at putting up fantasy points. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith might not carry a whole lot of individual fantasy relevance, but they’ll improve Newton’s passing numbers and give him two shallow options to throw it too on any given play. His accuracy isn’t what it used to be (and it never even used to be that great), but if you can mask your QB’s deficiencies with good weapons, you should get good numbers out of him. Not saying Newton will win you your league or be an MVP candidate, but he should be a viable streaming option at the minimum for more than just a few weeks.
The Entire WFT Offense ?
Ryan Fitzpatrick had to sign somewhere. There was no way he’d retire on such a disappointing note. Now Scary Terry McLaurin will have a real quarterback for the first time in his young and prolific NFL career. Curtis Samuel will come in and join his former Ohio State teammate, and they’ll both be receiving passes from one of the most electrifying and polarizing quarterbacks of our generation. Unless Washington drafts a QB early, this job will be Fitzpatrick’s for the entire season. A better passing attack will even open things up for Antonio Gibson and the run game. Washington could be one of those offenses that you just need a part of every week, whether that’s in DFS or season-long leagues.
Trending Down
Corey Davis – NYJ ?
Corey Davis thrived in a WR2 role with the most underrated QB in the NFL, one of the best young receivers opposite him, a physical tight end between them, and one of the best running backs in the NFL in Derrick Henry. How will he thrive as the Jets’ no. 1 wide receiver? I’m not even sure he’s the best receiver on the team right now. They may feel obligated to give Davis targets because of the money they paid him. But between Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and newly signed Keelan Cole… that’s a lot of mouths to feed with passes coming from, best case scenario, Sam Darnold. Davis should probably be drafted in the 8th round this year but might have earned himself a higher ADP just based on his play from last year.
Gabriel Davis – BUF ?
With the much-anticipated release of John Brown, it looked like sophomore wideout Gabriel Davis might be stepping into a larger role for the Buffalo Bills. But last week, Brandon Beane inked Emmanuel Sanders to a 1-year-deal, firmly slotting the former Super Bowl champion into John Brown’s WR2 role. They’re not the same player, but Sanders is a good route runner and is still good at separating so late into his career. Davis’s role will likely be the same as last year, but if he shows improvement, we could see him earn more snaps, and the Bills run more 10-personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR). This is not a knock on his skill. But for fantasy purposes, with Diggs, Beasley, and now Sanders ahead of him on the depth chart, Davis may be nothing more than a streaming option this year.
Josh Jacobs – LV ?
The Raiders are having an interesting off-season, to say the least, and capping that off is Kenyan Drake’s signing. Here’s a list of all the players who have been behind Josh Jacobs on the depth chart so far in his career: Devontae Booker, Jalen Richard, Theo Riddick, and DeAndre Washington. Never has Josh Jacobs had a starting-caliber running back behind him, and Gruden would be a fool not to utilize both. When the NFL season begins, this could be one of the best RB rooms in the entire league. In his first two seasons, we’ve seen him carry the ball more than 20 times in 12 of a possible 28 games. Jacobs will not have the same workload that we’re used to seeing from him, especially in the passing game where Drake can be a lethal weapon. Volume is king for fantasy running backs. He’s currently RB10 and going in the second round in fantasy drafts. That’s way too rich for my blood.
By Jake Watkins, Host of TWS Fantasy and The Crowd Assist Podcast