BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Yesterday I gave out an overview and my predictions for half of the major conferences. Today we are going to do the same for the Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12.
Big Ten
The Big Ten conference has been arguably the best overall conference in college basketball the past two seasons. Loaded at the top, the Big Ten has four elite basketball teams this season in Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Illinois. Outside of those four teams the Big Ten also has tournament caliber teams in Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan State, Indiana, and Minnesota that are all trying to get key wins down the stretch to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament.
It’s impossible to talk about the Big Ten without mentioning the four juggernauts. Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Illinois are all projected to get a two seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. All four teams rank in the top 7 in Kenpom rankings and are all ranked in the top 10 for adjusted offensive efficiency. These teams can score!
The top two teams of this bunch are Illinois and Michigan. Illinois and Michigan are both projected to be No. 1 seed and have basically locked that up. Michigan and Illinois are two of just three schools that rank in the top 10 for adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Illinois dominated Michigan in its only match-up of the year, winning by a score of 76-53.
The other two elite teams in the Big Ten are Ohio State and Iowa. Both teams have two of the country’s best offenses, ranked 2nd (Iowa) and 4th (Ohio State) overall. However, Iowa and Ohio State do not have the elite defense that Illinois and Michigan do. Regardless, both are still elite teams capable of beating anybody in the country. As long as the Big Ten championship is a combination of these four teams, I will be satisfied.
Big 12
The Big 12 is as good if not better than the Big Ten this year. Although it’s only a ten team conference the Big 12 has 7 teams ranked in the top 25 that are all locks to make the NCAA tournament.
The best team without question in the Big 12 is the Baylor Bears. The Baylor Bears are 21-1 (13-1) on the season have won the majority of their games by double digits this season. Baylor has three elite guards Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell that are not just elite on the offense end but also on the defensive end. The trio combines for 46.7 points per game as well as 4.9 steals a game. The Bears have the 3rd ranked adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and the 32nd ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.
Besides Baylor, the Big 12 contains many other teams capable of making long tournament runs. West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech are all projected to get a No. 5 seed or better in the tournament and even improve if they can win the Big 12.
My favorite of this bunch is West Virginia, who, much like Baylor, is built around elite guards who can effectively play offense and defense. The only issue for WVU is it would most likely have to get past Baylor in the semi-finals to get to the championship. In the first and only meeting this year, Baylor won 94-89 in overtime in a game that was within a few possessions for the entirety of the second half. Please give us a rematch.
The other side of the bracket contains Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. These teams have traded wins in absolutes classics all year long and it’s going to be a giant guessing game for which school makes it through.
Pac-12
The final conference of the major conferences is probably the weakest of the bunch. The Pac-12 is currently projected to have only four teams in the NCAA tournament, but that necessarily isn’t a bad thing for a conference tournament. With only three of its teams “locked in” (Colorado, Oregon, USC), the Pac-12 tournament could get crazy with a team trying to steal a bid.
The “Big 3” of the Pac-12 this season are Colorado, Oregon, USC. All three teams are projected to be anywhere from a No.5 or 6 seed but could still move up. Although they haven’t gotten the national attention, don’t sleep on these teams.
My favorite of these three schools is Colorado, but USC is not too far behind. Colorado is one of only six teams in the entire country ranked in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The other five teams that fit that criteria are Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, Houston, and Purdue. I would say that’s a good company to be in.
USC is another team to look out for. The Trojans just missed joining that same group. USC ranks 31st in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. The Trojans’ success can be credited mostly to NBA prospect Evan Mobley who averages 16.1ppg, 8.6rpg, and is 8th in the NCAA with 2.9 blocks per game. Mobley and the rest of the USC defense make it very difficult for opponents to score on the interior.
I don’t really have a sleeper team in the Pac-12 as I think the top 3 teams are significantly better than the rest, but this is March, so anything can happen!
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