BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
The “major” conferences start their tournaments these next few days and anything can happen.
Loaded with elite teams all across the board, these tournaments provide us with some of the most exciting basketball all year. With the ACC tournament starting today and the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12, Big East starting tomorrow, I will break down each tournament and give my predictions.
Today we will start with the ACC, Big East, and SEC.
ACC
Unlike most years, the ACC tournament favorites are not Duke (11-11) or North Carolina (16-9). This year Duke and UNC will have their work cut out for them since they finished outside the top four seeds and will not have a double-bye.
The top seed in the ACC is the Virginia Cavaliers, who finished the season with a record of 17-6 and 13-4 in conference play. Typically known for their defense, the Cavaliers have a very good offense as well this season. Virginia ranks 13th in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency as well as 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Virginia is elite on both sides of the ball this season and will be a very tough team to beat.
The next best team in the conference is Florida State, who finished second with a record of 15-5 and 11-4 in conference play. Much like Virginia, Florida State is great at both offense and defense. The Seminoles rank 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It is also worth noting that Florida State defeated Virginia by 21 in the two schools only meeting this year.
In my opinion, the sleeper team in this tournament is Georgia Tech. The four seed in the tournament, Georgia Tech has been the hottest team in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets finished the year on a six-game winning streak and compiled a record of 15-8 (11-6). Part of the reason I love Georgia Tech is that they have already beaten both Florida State and Virginia Tech (No.3 seed) this season. The Yellow Jackets battled tough twice against Virginia and are currently playing the best they have all season.
Big East
The Big East is one of the most unpredictable conferences of all the major ones. Outside of DePaul (sorry, DePaul fans), any of the Big East teams could beat or lose to anyone else in the conference. Filled with numerous bubble teams desperately needing a win, expect most if not all games to be close until the final buzzer.
The one seed of the Big East tournament is Villanova, with a 16-5 (11-4) record. On paper Villanova looks to be above the rest of the pack. According to Kenpom, Villanova is ranked 10th overall in the NCAA with the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 55th best defensive efficiency.
However, Villanova will be without its star Senior guard Collin Gillespie. Collin suffered a torn MCL last week and will miss the remainder of the season. Villanova may also be without Sophomore guard Justin Moore who is doubtful this week with an ankle injury. Between the two, Villanova is losing a ton of production as Gillespie and Moore combined to average 26.7ppg, 7.6rpg, and 7.6apg this season. The injuries have made this conference wide open.
Creighton 18-7 (14-6) and UConn 14-6 (11-6) are the next two best teams in the Big East. Both teams are ranked in the top 25 in offensive efficiency and top 50 in defensive efficiency. I like both of these teams, but if I had to choose one, it would be UConn simply because of James Bouknight. James Bouknight is the superstar guard for the Huskies that was injured for a good chunk of the season. Since Bouknight returned, he is averaging 20 points and 5.8 rebounds a game while UConn is 5-1 with a point differential of +62 in those six games.
SEC
According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the SEC is projected to have six teams into the NCAA tournament (Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee) with Ole Miss on the bubble. This means one thing. Kentucky will need to win the SEC tournament if it wants to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for just the 3rd time in the past 30 seasons.
The number one seed in the SEC is the Alabama Crimson Tide, with a record of 21-6 (16-2). Alabama has been exceptional this season and is currently the 3rd best rated defensive team in all of the NCAA. But don’t be fooled, Alabama is not just a defensive team. The Crimson Tide also have the 41st ranked offense that averages 79.6ppg (17th) and makes the 3rd most three-pointers in the country (10.7 per game). Alabama has a team capable of winning the SEC and making a deep run in the NCAA tournament.
Besides Alabama, the SEC also has two more elite offensive teams in LSU and Arkansas. LSU averages 82.7ppg and has the 5th best offensive efficiency, while Arkansas averages 83.3ppgs with the 27th best offensive efficiency. Both teams can score at will, and if they get matched up together in the semifinals, it will be a game where the first to 100 wins.
The team to watch out for in this tournament will be Missouri. Missouri has struggled at the end of this season, losing five of its last seven but will not be a pushover. Missouri has already proven they can beat the best teams this year with wins over Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Illinois. Missouri has a very good defense, and its physical style of play could give LSU or Arkansas fits.
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