BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
If only every day was as easy as yesterday. Not only did we have our first 3-0 night but we won every single game with ease. Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, and the Warriors were all winning by double digits at halftime and never looked back. It was the ideal start to the week that we needed and we are looking to carry the momentum from the 3-0 start into tonight’s slate.
Overall Record: 12-15-1 (-5.4u)
Austin Peay (-6.5) at SE Missouri St.
Our first game tonight is the rematch between Austin Peay (13-8, 10-9 ATS) and SE Missouri St. (7-14, 9-12 ATS). These two teams played this past Saturday with Austin Peay winning by a score of 78-63. Austin Peay lead by 15 at halftime and coasted from there on out despite SE Missouri St. shooting a similar percentage from the floor and out-rebounding Austin Peay 34 to 32. It will be hard for SE Missouri St. to repeat its shooting output from the first game. They are ranked 319th in adjusted offense compared to Austin Peay who is 111th. SE Missiouri St. has also struggled mightily against the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference with a record of 0-7, 1-6 ATS vs the top half of the conference. Austin Peay was the preseason favorite to win the Ohio Valley and although the Governors started off slow they have picked it up winning six of its last eight and covering the spread in six of those games. I’m taking Austin Peay to repeat what it did three days ago.
Florida (+5) at Arkansas
The next game featured on our slate tonight is a battle between two of the SEC’s best, Florida (10-5, 8-7 ATS) and Arkansas (16-5, 13-7 ATS). Both of these teams are ranked in the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency with Florida having the edge on offense (19th to 32nd) and Arkansas having the edge on defense (26th to 48th). I expect this game to be very competitive but there is one major reason why I am taking Florida. Despite having a great record straight up and against the spread, Arkansas has not been the greatest vs tournament caliber teams. This season Arkansas has played six games vs teams ranked 50th or better and in those games the Razorbacks are 1-5, 2-4 ATS with a point differential of -10.8ppg. Not only have the Razorbacks lost but they’ve gotten blown out in the majority of those games. With the Gators ranked 28th overall I think they can give Arkansas a lot of trouble tonight who could very well be….dare I say it….frauds.
Illinois (-12) vs Northwestern
Earlier this season, on January 7th, Northwestern (6-12, 7-9-1 ATS) lead Illinois (14-5, 12-7 ATS) by a score of 43-28 at halftime. Not only did Northwestern lose that game, but the Wildcats were outscored in the second half, 53 to 13, to lose by TWENTY FIVE POINTS! Ever since that game, these teams have gone in completely opposite directions. The Wildcats lost their next eight games by an averaging margin of 8.2ppg, covering the spread only twice. On the other hand, Illinois has been dominant lately, winning its last five games and playing itself into the conversation of a one seed. They have relied on the dynamic duo of Kofi Cockburn, and Ayo Dosunmu, who have combined for 39.1ppg, 16.8rpg, and 5.3apg and have carried Illinois to the 8th best offense in all of basketball. With Northwestern’s current form and the way Illinois dominated the second half of its first match up, it’s almost impossible for me not to take Illinois tonight. I’m going to rely on the high-flying Illini offense (81.6ppg) to run Northwestern out of the gym.
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