BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Record: 7-10 (-4u) ?
The score was 68-66 with 15 seconds to go. After covering for almost the entirety of the game, all St. John’s (+2) needed to do was pass in the ball and make their free throws. Unfortunately for us, they could even complete step one. St. John’s passed into the corner, got trapped and turned the ball over with eight seconds to go. Naturally, this led to a walk-in reverse layup for Butler to force overtime, where St. John’s ended up losing by three.
PAIN!
The last two days have had some rough beats in the final minutes, but it is not time to panic. The law of averages suggests that all of these last-minute bad beats will start to swing back in our favor, and I’ve been betting college basketball long enough to know that it’s inevitable.
Connecticut (-2.5) at Providence
With the possible return of UCONN’s star guard, James Bouknight, I am all over the Huskies as short road favorites tonight. Before his injury, UCONN was 5-1, 5-1 ATS, with their only loss vs. Creighton by two. In those six games, Bouknight put up All-American type numbers averaging 20.3ppg, 5.3rpg, 1.7apg, and 1.5spg. He was a difference maker on both sides of the court, and it showed with UCONN averaging 8.2 more points and allowing 1.8 points less in the games that Bouknight played. On the year, UCONN is ranked 34th overall compared to Providence at 78. UCONN is ranked 38th in adjusted offense and 42nd in adjusted defense, where Providence is ranked 63rd and 106th. UCONN is the better team, and with a potential return of James Bouknight, I am grabbing the line at 2.5 before the number goes up.
VMI (+2) at Western Carolina
In their first meeting this season, VMI (10-9, 11-5 ATS) crushed WCU (8-11, 4-13 ATS) by a score of 87-61. In that game VMI shot 50 percent from the field and 48.1% from 3 point range while WCU shot 33.8 percent from the field and 29 percent from three-point range. Even if WCU’s shooting numbers go up I expect VMI to win once again. VMI is the better rebounding team on the season but was outrebounded 41-38 in the first contest. If that number swings back in VMI’s favor this will be an even bigger mismatch. With VMI being ranked 96th in adjusted offense compared to WCU ranked 236th I am going to trust the VMI offense to repeat what they did in the first game.
Rutgers (+7) at Iowa
Coming into the year Iowa was regarded as one of the best teams in the country and a championship contender. However, after a 12-2 start the Hawkeyes are 1-4 in their last five. In those five games Iowa has allowed opponents to average 79 points a game and shoot 44.5 percent from the floor. Now they host Rutgers, one of the better offensive teams in the country. After a mid-season slump, Rutgers looks to have figured it out winning four-straight and covering the spread in all but one of those contests. They have shot the ball at a scorching hot 49.1 percent and have held their opponents to a mere 58.7ppg in those four games. Part of the success has came from Rutgers slowing down their pace of play substantially and relying on their 17th ranked defense to give opponents fits. While Iowa is a very daunting opponent, I think there is value on the road dogs to keep the game close against a defense that has been very vulnerable as of late.
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