BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Alright, degenerates. It’s Saturday and that can only mean one thing: a 100+ game college basketball slate with free money all over the board! Today we are going to do things a little differently. Instead of three games I am going to give out five that are separated into three different categories: must watch games, exciting mid majors, and a toilet bowl. Lets get to it!
Must Watch Games
West Virginia (-2) vs Kansas: Our first game is a rematch between two Big 12 powerhouses. West Virginia (12-5, 8-9 ATS) hosts Kansas (12-6, 7-10 ATS) looking for revenge from the 79-65 loss that Kansas handed them back on December 22nd. In that game, Kansas made a whopping SIXTEEN three pointers and I expect that number to regress back to their average of 7.6/game. Kansas has also struggled mightily on the road over the past four games (0-4, 1-3 ATS).
North Carolina (+4) at Duke: For the first time in 61 years, North Carolina and Duke face off as unranked teams. North Carolina (11-6, 6-10-1 ATS) and Duke (7-6, 3-10 ATS) have both been huge disappointments this season and find themselves needing key wins just to make the tournament. It’s usually never a good idea to bet against Duke at home, but without the thousands of “Cameron Crazies” at each game, they’re only 2-6 ATS.
On paper there isn’t much separating these teams. They average around 73/74 points, allow around 70, and are ranked in the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Duke has the slight shooting edge at 45% to 43.4% while UNC has a sizeable advantage on the boards (42.8 per game to 37.1). In a game this close and home court advantage not nearly being the same this year, I am going to take the road dogs.
Exciting Mid-Majors
Drake (-13.5) at Valparaiso: Is there anything else we can say about the darlings Drake at point? Having a historically good season, Drake is 17-0 and 14-1 ATS! They’re shooting 51% on the season and winning games by an average margin of 21.2 points. Today they face Valparaiso, a team that Drake has an advantage over across the board. Drake ranks over 200 spots higher in offensive efficiency, 120 spots higher in defensive efficiency, shoots 10% better from the field, turns the ball over less, and averages over 5 more rebounds a game than Valparaiso. I’m going to continue to ride with everyone’s darlings, Drake, against a team they are substantially better than.
Murray State at Eastern Kentucky (Over 147.5): Eastern Kentucky has been one of my favorite teams to watch all year. They play full court press almost the entirety of the game, resulting in quick baskets, turnovers, and points. Lots of points. In EKU’s last 5 games the over is 5-0 with an average total of 175 points per game. EKU plays at the 4th fastest pace of all teams in college basketball and go up against Murray State who is shooting 50.1% on the year. Although Murray State plays at the 276th fastest pace, it will be very tough for them to continue that vs the EKU full court press. I’m trusting that the home team will dictate the pace in this game, and push the final total well over 147.5.
Toilet Bowl
Incarnate Word (+2) at Texas AM CC: Incarnate Word (7-8, 8-4 ATS) once again finds themselves as road dogs as they battle Texas AM CC (3-11, 5-6 ATS) who has yet to defeat a Division 1 opponent this season. Incarnate Word is 5-1 ATS on the road this season while Texas AM CC is 2-2 ATS at home. These teams faced off earlier this year with IW winning 72-53. In that contest, IW shot 44.2% compared to Texas AM CC 36.7% and out rebounded them 38 to 32. To be honest, Texas AM CC doesn’t deserve to lay points to anyone and I am going to take IW hoping that they’ll replicate what they did earlier in the season.
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