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Wake’s Season Record: 5-1 (+2.84 units)
Yesterday’s Picks:
Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (-140) ❌
Canucks/Maple Leafs Over 6.5 (-125) ✅
Nashville Predators +1.5 (-240) ✅
Right process, wrong result.
No one in their right mind could have predicted Matt Murray holding the Canadiens to 2 goals on 38 shots. The NHL app’s game flow charts show that Montreal was the better team all night, which is the most frustrating thing about hockey; you can be the better team and lose on any given night. But degenerates don’t get discouraged. We’ve got a five-game slate that’s a little less chalky than the past 2 nights, but that just means we’ll have to dig a little to unbury that free money!
Today’s Free Money
Kings/Golden Knights O6.5 (+125)
This is the first meeting of the young season between the Los Angeles Kings and the Vegas Golden Knights, and I expect all the fanfare that you could imagine. Oddsmakers have the O/U set at 5.5, a criminally low number for these two teams, so I’m pushing it up to 6.5. Jonathan Quick and Robin Lehner are sporting identical .885 SV%s. Just 33% of the Kings’ games have had five goals or less, and that number is even lower for Vegas. Last thing I’ll say is that it’s rare that you find a game where the O/U is set a full goal below the cumulative GAA of the starting net-minders. Quick gives up 3.54 goals/game, and Lehner 2.95. Together that’s 6.49. Lock this one in before they up the total.
Florida Panthers ML (-130)
Last night I was on the Predators to cover +1.5, and their late surge pushed them to overtime and solidified that one before the game even ended. Tonight, I’m on the other side of this two-game series. It’s expected that both teams will be switching goalies for tonight, meaning Chris Driedger will get the nod for Florida, and Pekka Rinne for Nashville. Saros and Rinne have both been lackluster for the Preds thus far, but Driedger has been a bit of a surprise for the Panthers. After 3 games played, he has a commendable 1.95 GAA and a .937 SV%. I think the Panthers handle business tonight, possibly in regulation. Last night’s collapse has me nervous about betting the regulation money line though, so I’ll stick with the full-time ML at -130.
NHL Grand Salami – Home Goals (-220)
I hate salami as the deli meat, but love it in NHL betting. The logic for this one is gonna be simple. 4 of the 5 presumed goalies for the home teams have a save percentage over .924. None of the projected goalies for away teams have one over .902. I know it’s a pretty heavy favorite at -220, but this is easily my lock of the night.