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Last night when I went to bed, I told myself that I’d start doing daily gambling articles (specifically on the NHL). Today I woke up and realized that there are only two games on the slate, and I thought that would make it much harder to fulfill the flexible quota that I arbitrarily made up as I tossed and turned struggling to get comfortable at 1 am. But that 3-bet-quota was actually super easy to satisfy, because Vegas has decided to just hand out free money I guess?
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-135)
Lighting/Red Wings Over 5.5 Goals (-125)
The Detroit Red Wings are above only the Ottawa Senators in the NHL Standings. Over the course of the six-game skid they’re riding out, they’ve lost by an average of 2.33 goals per game. Andrei Vasilevsky will easily be the best competition they’ve faced in net so far, so I wouldn’t count on them for more than 2 goals. That being said, over the first 10 games of the season they’ve allowed 6+ goals twice, 4+ four times, and 3+ seven times! They let up a touchdown to the Dallas Stars, who lost to the Lighting in the Stanley Cup Finals last year. I feel good about the Lighting putting up five goals tonight, so these two bets are a no brainer to me. I’m almost tempted to do 6.5 at +125, but Vasilevsky is enough to scare me off of that.
NHL Grand Salami – Over 11.5 Goals (-125)
Oh boy oh boy am I excited about this one. It’s possible we need some heavy lifting from the Lightning to make this happen, but it’s also possible that the Bruins and Flyers continue to average 8 cumulative goals in their matchups. Picking this comes down to the goalies playing today for me. Between Thomas Greiss, Andrei Vasilevsky, Tuukka Rask and Carter Hart:
- 3 of them have a SV% less than .901
- 2 of them have a GAA over 3.02
- 1 of them hasn’t won a game this year
While I don’t have the Flyers/Bruins single game over (O5.5 -115), I feel good about the Salami. I’m not betting this game alone because:
1.) I hate both of those teams so I don’t want to bet on them (yeah, I’m petty)
2.) The lines are honestly pretty good and don’t provide a lot of value (IMO)
If I were to recommend anything from that game, it’d probably be Over 5.5 (-115), but the issue I have with it is that Tuukka Rask and Carter Hart have Vezina-caliber talent. Even though the two previous meetings between these teams had 7 and 9 goals respectively, it’s very possible that this turns into a goalie battle and a low-scoring affair. I think we can certainly count on 4 goals in this one, but getting to 6 could prove difficult.
In a slate where you only have this game, and then one between the defending Stanley Cup Champions and the lifeless Detroit Red Wings, I’d much rather attach myself to the Lighting. But if you wanna have some fun, put some mustard on that grand salami and let it ride (unless you don’t like mustard, I don’t like mustard)!