Discover Central Division
Let’s start with the easiest division to predict, the Discover Central Division. With the Chicago Blackhawks and the Columbus Blue Jackets tied for the last playoff spot, it seems that it would be the only one up for grabs.
The Hurricanes are playing extremely well, Florida has arguably been the most surprising team this season (possibly behind the Wild), and Tampa Bay will absolutely get into the postseason as the top seed. The Lightning has the experience, depth on the back end, extraordinary depth in their top 3 lines, and a Norris candidate defenseman.
With a new superstar sniper in Laine, solid defensemen, and a young core that produces and works cohesively under a passionate coach in Tortorella, I believe Columbus will swap the final playoff berth with the Blackhawks. Chicago is just too young and inexperienced to stave off Columbus for the rest of this season.
Projected Standings
1. Tampa Bay
2. Florida
3. Carolina
4. Columbus
5. Dallas
6. Chicago
7. Nashville
8. Detroit
Honda West Division
Similar to my views on the Central Division, I think that the top 3 teams (Colorado, Vegas, and then Minnesota) are locked in. Colorado is getting production through their top 6, from Mackinnon and Rantanen to Burakovsky and Kadri. Even with superstar defenseman Cale Makar being injured, the team finds ways to win with guys like Graves, Toews, and Girard picking up the load and taking on more minutes. Grubauer posting an 18-7-0 record (2nd), .929 SV% (3rd), and a 1.74 GAA (1st) is Vezina conversation-worthy, and Hunter Miska could develop into a solid backup. Not to mention they have the 2nd best-ranked PK in the league at 87.6%, only behind Boston at 89.4%.
The Golden Knights have been consistent since their inaugural 2017-18 season, and they’ll continue to be a force with two elite goaltenders, along with strong forward depth. Their only weakness seems to be their power play. Their defense core has been productive.
Shea Theodore is 4th on the team in points, and Alec Martinez is playing strong in the defensive end to compliment him. Mark Stone has shown elite talent this year on the right wing, posting 35 points in 28 contests (10th in NHL), and Max Pacioretty has 30 points in 28 games (23rd in NHL)
The Wild are bursting with young talent and strong goaltending. This team has developed how all young franchises hope to. Kaprizov is absolutely lighting it up on the top line with Rask and Zuccarello. Their second line has had production from its wingers in Fiala and, more impressively, Jordan Greenway, who has 20 points in 29 contests. The third line of Parise, Eriksson Ek, and Bjugstad has produced very similar numbers. I have no doubt that Minnesota will make the playoffs and, at the very least, make it through the first round, no matter the opponent.
This leaves St. Louis fighting for the last spot against the LA Kings and Arizona Coyotes. I can’t fathom the Blues missing hockey in May because one of those two teams slips into the last spot. Tarasenko is back, and Binnington, even if he hasn’t been as impressive as his rookie debut, is as reliable as it gets. Perron, O’Reilly, and Schenn are all in the top 50 in scoring, and Tarasenko may not reach that by season’s end, but we have hardly seen what this team looks like with him.
Projected Standings
1. Colorado
2. Vegas
3. Minnesota
4. St. Louis
5. Arizona
6. Los Angeles
7. San Jose
8. Anaheim
Scotia North Division
The Leafs and Oilers are showing that they belong in the playoffs with impressive starts from their superstars. The goaltending stats among Toronto, Edmonton, and Winnipeg are very similar, so it comes down to scoring. Edmonton has 116 goals (1st in NHL), Toronto has 107 (3rd), and Winnipeg has 100 (6th) has resulted in some very high scoring games. Toronto and Edmonton have the star power and production to both come out of the North division, but Winnipeg will put the heat on them.
Again, this leaves the fourth spot in the division up for grabs, between Montreal, Calgary, and Vancouver. As much as I would love to see a very talented young team like Vancouver make the playoffs, I don’t see them leapfrogging the Canadiens. With the 7th most goals for and 12th least goals against, Montreal has shown a stronger consistency than the Canucks or Calgary has. Both teams have borderline elite talent but can’t seem to get over the hump and become a true contender. Montreal will take the last spot and watch for Calgary to deal big name pieces in the offseason if there isn’t a playoff berth.
Projected Standings
1. Edmonton
2. Toronto
3. Winnipeg
4. Montreal
5. Vancouver
6. Calgary
7. Ottawa
MassMutual East Division
Finally, my least favorite division to look at, the East. The Sabres have slid 10 points back of the 7th place New Jersey Devils with no light at the end of the tunnel visible to the human eye. An incompetent and unwilling front office has finally been broken after an immeasurable amount of media backlash and confusion that has fans somewhere between scratching their heads and picking their jaws off the floor in disbelief. A seemingly improved cast in Buffalo has shown time and time again that whatever game plan is being forced onto them, it won’t work. With a team as pitiful as Buffalo in a division, the numbers may seem inflated. We’ll see if that changes under Don Granato, but the top 4 teams in this division have proven that they deserve to be where they are.
The Islanders (20-8-4) have shocked the MassMutual East, mimicking the Capitals (20-7-4) with Varlamov’s elite goaltending (.923 SV% and 2.17 GAA), which is 7th in SV% and 8th in GAA among goalies with 10-plus starts. Barzal is the only Islander in the top 50 in points. However, they still find themselves 15th in scoring (more than Colorado and Boston), and it is attributed to an even distribution of production through their lines.
Backstrom is having another rock solid season, and Carlson continues to prove why he’s a candidate for the Norris year in and year out. The Capitals are tied with the Panthers and Islanders with 44 points and have the 4th most goals for in the league. A 9th ranked power play and 12th ranked penalty kill is nothing to overlook, especially with two young goalies in Vanecek and Samsonov.
The Penguins have also been impressive, doing exactly what I thought the Rangers would be doing before the season started. Malkin, Guentzel, and Crosby are all around a point per game and recently added winger, Kasperi Kapanen, has been a great accent to Malkin’s right wing (similar to Bryan Rust’s production alongside Crosby on the 1st line).
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, I don’t see Boston and Philadelphia teams missing the playoffs to a team with only two productive lines and mediocre goaltending. Boston has arguably the best goaltending duo in the NHL, and Philadelphia could argue theirs is top 5 by the end of the year. Both the Flyers and Bruins have depth well into their third lines (Voracek–Giroux–Patrick) in Philadelphia and (Ritchie–Coyle–Steen) in Boston. Philadelphia has a slightly deeper defensive core, which will help push them past Pittsburgh, allowing them to take the fourth spot.
Projected Standings
- Washington
- Boston
- NY Islanders
- Philadelphia
- Pittsburgh
- NY Rangers
- New Jersey
- Buffalo
Written by Nick Lenahan
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One Response
Great perspective in this article.